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Nation•Cymru A news service by the people of Wales, for the people of Wales.

Opinion

Why is Reform polarising against Plaid Cymru?

By Mark Mansfield
Left: Nigel Farage - Image: Ben Whitley/PA Wire / Right: Rhun ap Iorwerth. Photo Plaid Cymru

Jonathan Edwards

Last week, Nigel Farage attempted to frame the Senedd election as a straight fight between Reform and Plaid Cymru, who he described as a hard left-wing party.

The latest polls indicate both parties are pulling clear of Labour and the Conservatives, and the Caerphilly by-election result further cemented the new political landscape before us.

It seems an obvious statement for Mr Farage to make therefore and there is nothing new in political parties deliberately choosing a target to polarise against. Both Labour and the Conservatives have historically polarised against each other in a self-serving duopoly.

Despite this I thought the specific signalling out of Plaid Cymru was interesting from a strategic point of view. When I look at the Welsh political battleground, for the most part it seems to me as if Plaid, Labour and the Greens are chasing the same voters. On the other side of the spectrum, you have Reform and the Tories competing.

From this viewpoint, if the primary objective of Reform was to be the largest party next May they need the polar axis made up of Plaid, Labour and the Greens to cancel each other out as much as possible. If their vote share equalises the subsequent seat allocation, this is good news for Reform. Having Plaid and Labour both in the low 20s is much better than one or the other with a clear lead. Again, I emphasise, if the priority for Reform is to win the election.

It could be argued that polarising in this manner is a deliberate aim by Reform to get a slice of the Labour pie - by enticing those Labour voters who oppose Welsh nationalism in their bones to the Reform banner. It is true the Labour Party in Wales has always had two traditions, one staunchly unionist and one pro-devolution.

However, I would guess that most Labour supporters these days given a straight choice between Plaid and Reform would not support Mr Farage.

The strategy therefore seems somewhat high risk with the Senedd election in mind. My suspicion however is that Reform has wider considerations at play. I don’t think for one moment that Reform has a driving ambition to assume responsibility for the Welsh Government. It would be complete implosion territory considering the lack of experience and serious policy programme.

The Senedd election is however a stepping stone for Mr Farage in his real ambition of gaining the keys to 10 Downing Street. A rout against Labour in Wales would undoubtedly help that ambition considering the turmoil it would launch within the wider UK Labour Party.

Recruiting sergeant

Conversely from a Plaid Cymru perspective, Reform polling strongly at both Wales and especially UK level is beneficial. The prospect of a UK Government led by Mr Farage performs as the proverbial recruiting sergeant for Welsh nationalism.

If this theory is correct, then next year’s Welsh national election will play a proxy role in the bigger UK battle for supremacy. I can’t think of another Welsh election that has been so consequential for Westminster politics.

If Labour fall from pole position in Wales, that will be the story of the evening as far as the UK media is concerned – as we saw following Caerphilly. Mr Farage is hedging his bets therefore by polarising against Plaid Cymru. From his point of view it doesn’t matter if Reform win the election, the only thing that is important is that Labour doesn’t.

None of this will worry Plaid. Every time Mr Farage attacks them, they should whoop for joy. It may be the key determining factor that results in Rhun Ap Iorwerth becoming First Minister.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24

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39 comments

Amir

PC need to keep pushing the despicable antisemitic hate speech that Farage indulged in his past and get Farage to apologise for his past misdeeds. This is an open goal.

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Padi Phillips

The best thing Plaid can do is remain relatively silent and give Reform enough rope to hang themselves. Certainly the dirt about Farage and Reform candidates needs to be put in the public domain, but no more than that. I think we could well see Reform implode under the weight of its own contradictions.

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And

Bit of a double edged sword that. There's a danger that being held to account for things he said in school makes opposition look desperate and Farage look persecuted. Which will make this good publicity for him. Best just to let them sink themselves and focus on winning votes.

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J Jones

His tactic comes from the fact that a hard left party has not won a general election in his country for over half a century, but in this country the limited tax raising powers mean it's more possible, especially if it's required to keep out a hard right party with morals and ethics totally contrary to those we have in Cymru.

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Tucker

There arent any hard left parties. You seem obsessed with anyone left of Blair or Starmer is hard left. Delusional.

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Egon

The Greens are to the left of Blair and Starmer so what do you call the politics of a party to the left of the Greens, who Corbyn sneered at for not being proper socialists.

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In reply to Egon

Tucker

Who mentioned Corbyn and his new party? This article is about Plaid and Reform

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In reply to Tucker

Mike T

I think Your Party are up for a BAFTA for Best Comedy.

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In reply to Tucker

Egon

You did when you wrote "anyone left of Blair". So where do they fit if Zack's New Greens are too right wing for them?

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In reply to Egon

Tucker

Blair was right wing. Thatchers greatest achievement and Starmer is further to the right again.

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J Jones

Hard left parties obviously deny being hard left because it hinders their election prospects, remember the hard left have failed to win a UK general election for over half a century. So they simultaneously claim to be mainstream while attacking real centrists for considering all the electorate.

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In reply to J Jones

Padi Phillips

The 'hard left' you describe are a figment of your imagination. By no measure has any Labour government been 'hard left'. In terms of everyday policies there was little difference between the Tories and Labour in that period, but the Overton Window has shifted so far to the right that Labour (and Tory) policies from 50 odd years ago do seem radically 'left-wing' but in reality they were just ordinary social democratic values.

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In reply to Padi Phillips

J Jones

Unfortunately it's an argument between what you want people to believe and the hard facts of 83% and 98% taxation that came from the hard left. It's much more difficult to hide any shift to the left these days when people come home from a hard days work for technology to instantly tell them how much more of their money is going to someone who decided to stay in bed. People are not as gullible to distorting the facts of the matter - ask Rachel from Accounts about her ongoing Porky Pies being exposed.

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In reply to J Jones

Tucker

There are no hard left parties in mainstream uk politics. You seem to be very delusional in your understanding of the political spectrum.

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Padi Phillips

Even in it's more socialist days the Labour Party mainstream could hardly have been described as 'hard left'. In reality both Labour and Conservatives in that era were largely social democrat in practice, both committed to supporting and expanding the welfare state and even competing at one point in supplying the most council housing... (The Tories won that one, in terms of sheer numbers, albeit by reducing standards). Thatcher ended consensus politics in 1979 which largely explains the situation in which we find ourselves today. No truly 'hard left' party could win in the UK, and the same goes for any truly open hard right, but Reform UK are not open about who they really are - which we are beginning to see.

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J Jones

In it's more socialist days Labour hit people for 83% tax on their earnings and 98% of their investment income, to me those figures mean they were hard left.

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In reply to J Jones

Padi Phillips

Only the very wealthy paid that level of taxation, they could afford it and were still extremely wealthy. That money went to pay for education and healthcare and a social safety net. The Tories of that era also taxed at those rates, or close to them, and the Tories were more often in government than not. The general attitude at the time towards income tax was that you had to be earning it to pay it. I'm not saying things were wonderful back then but there was hope for a better future and inequality was far less than it is now. That makes a difference. Labour (not my party) are not, and never have been 'hard left'.

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In reply to J Jones

Welsh Ian

The highest rate of income tax in the US during the 1960s and 1970s (under both Democrats and Republicans) was 70%. Were they hard left too?

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Jeff

Because that is where the racist party see their competitor. Has farage apologised for racist comments he claims were not meant to hurt? Has he looked into gill a bit deeper, or does he know what he will find? farage is wrecker. Lied about brexit and will drag Wales back to the dark ages. Spouts racist comments, protects people who spout race hate and tried for two years to get race riots going and has a sweet spot for putin. And now he is in with the far US right religious types who remove women's rights. And this. https://bylinetimes.com/2025/12/02/the-reform-backed-far-right-street-patrols-coming-to-british-school-gates/

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Y Cymro

Nigel Farage and Reform UK have no interest in Wales. Let's make this perfectly clear. They are foremost an English far-right party who attract those voters happy to sell Wales out. The kind who voted against devolution in 1997. Don't take my word for it. Just look at his actions. As the old saying goes. Actions speak louder than words. He as Reform UK leader is happy to interfere in Welsh politics but like most big mouthed cowards doesn't want himself to run for office by becoming a Senedd member opting to parachute an unelected BritNat bureaucrat like a Russia spy and we all know how much Reform UK are Putin's pushovers. Forget rabble-rousers. More like ruble lovers. Look , next May's Senedd election Wales has a simple choice. Either Plaid Cymru led by Rhun ap Iorweth. A man born and bred in Wales. A Welsh speake. Who leads a party founded on the principle of fighting not only for the survival of Wales and Britain's native language Cymraeg but Wales and Welsh democracy. Or Reform UK and Nigel Farage. An English Imperialist party led by public school educated Conservative leaning Thatcherite with no Welsh ancestry or interest in Wales. A man accused of racism towards black Asian and Jewish people whilst at Dulwich collage in the 1970s & 80s, who admires war criminal , rapist and convicted fellon Donald Trump and admires Russian dictator Vladimir Putin responsible for the murder of over 14,000 Ukrainian civilians with his invasion. Farage refuses to stand for election in Wales , has no base in Wales, or does he have the decency to use Welsh on Reform UK's Senedd election campaign leaflets citing English is the language of common sense therefore his party implies that those who do speak and champion our native language have no sense. An overt slur harking back to the bad old days of the Welsh Not. Anti-Welsh Reform wants also to scrap the aspiration of a million Welsh speakers by 2050. Abolish both the Senedd reinstating Westminster direct rule and our 20 international offices around the world Welsh business, trade, investment, culture, and tourism leaving Wales the only UK nation at the mercy of Whitehall where there are no similar calls to remove the Scottish Parliament , Northern Irish or London Assemblies. Farage also states he wants to reindustrialise Wales by reopening up opencast mines blighting once more our landscape like Ffos Y Fran in Merthyr Tydfil has. Is a climate denier, so would not care about making safe nearly 3000 highly dangerous coal tips teetering above our valleys waiting to cause another Aberfan tragedy. He wants to privatise our beloved Welsh invented National Health Service by inviting American Health providers to control and asset strip. Is this what Wales really wants? Reform UK , a patronising party full of plastic patriots that will fail Wales like both the Tories & Labour have? Put it this way. Here's a sporting analogy. Where Farage wants to turn Wales into a pub side, Rhun ap Iorwerth wants to take us to the Champions League. So I'd rather vote for a manager that wants to take us to the top than one whose a flop.

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Tucker

Aww poor Ady Wady doesnt like the truth spoken about his Russian asset.

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Barry Pandy

Reform are far-right and if you support them then you are also far-right. Clearly from your previous comments you are happy with this and, by extension, Farage's racism and antisemitism.

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Jeff

How many receipts do you want? He defends putin and trump for starters. https://bylinetimes.com/2025/11/24/nigel-farages-project-2029-the-pro-trump-lobbyist-pushing-his-agenda-into-the-uk/

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Andy w

Farage love publicity: drinking beer, having milkshakes thrown at him etc - all adds to his brand profile. On this website a few months back a Scottish Academic critiqued Brexit and questioned if the voters in Middle England lack a cultural identity. Economically the UKs issues are as a result of Westminster’s policies not Welsh / Scottish / Northetn Ireland - all new administrations, Westminster has governed for decades. Westminster has not devolved powers to Wales and is holding on to decision making; but the impact on Londons economy has not been beneficial. They have not kept London as a global financial hub - Astra Zeneca joining New York Stock Exchange suggests Westminster does not have a strong working relationship with Astra Zeneca. If GSK, Vodafone and BT follow Astra Zeneca to New York the UK will have no major Technology or Pharmaceutical organisations in top 100 globally. Perhaps Plaid Cymru should have a manifesto pledge to create a Cymru Stock Exchange in the Ancient Capital of Wales, Machynlleth?

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Egon

It's all relative isn't it. From their perspective all the way over there on the right-right they'd probably call Thatcher a liberal left wokie because she only denied poor kids milk not oxygen.

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Richard Lice

Bookies go Even Stevens for Plaid and Reform to get most seats Reform have taken in a staggering £10.3m donations in the 3rd quarter of 2025. That includes a single donation of £9m from Christopher Harborne We are being sold. Its safe to say they will be throwing everything at Wales even though nigh on impossible for them to get a majority over Plaid/ Labour alignment

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Egon

That donation is shocking. Why is a so-called "People's Army" attracting funding from the super rich?

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Mike T

For fairness and transparency, it would be good to know how all the parties are being funded, and to what amount.

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Padi Phillips

Apologies for the clunky URL, but you can find all you want here. Often the information you seek is already available, alll you need to do is search for it. https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/Search?currentPage=1&rows=10&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&open=filter&et=pp&isIrishSourceYes=true&isIrishSourceNo=true&date=Accepted&from=2025-07-01&to=2025-09-30&prePoll=false&postPoll=true&register=ni&register=gb&optCols=IsIrishSource&optCols=ReportingPeriodName

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In reply to Padi Phillips

Mike T

Oh dear. It's not very clear is it? Just a list of donations from £34 quid or so upwards...

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In reply to Mike T

Padi Phillips

It's clear enough. Want something better? Do your own research!

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hdavies15

So Reform is by common consent the "big threat". If that is really the case the other competing parties need to spell out with greater clarity how they propose to lift our country out of its gutter, not just wish lists but "how we do it" lists which would also contrast with Reform's vague offering once you strip out its hate lists. Thus far no party has showed much interest in doing anything other than bawling at each other and howling about the Reform threat. Not at all promising, is it?

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Egon

If they're the same why don't they merge to become a genuine political force?

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J Jones

No tempting fate, but the last world war started with fascists and communists combining to invade and take control of an independent country. Both extremes meet up at the dark side of the political globe, just take different paths to get there.

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Egon

Reform and Your Party? Now that's a tie-up I hadn't considered.

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Padi Phillips

Get a sense of perspective. Neither the Greens or Your Party are anything but pretty mainstream social democratic parties, with Your Party perhaps lacking in credibility. Neither are in any measurable way 'hard left' in the way that Reform is not just 'hard right' but crypto-fascist. Nigh on half a century of neoliberal nonsense seems to have addled people's brains to the extent that anything to the left of Keir Starmer is 'hard left'. Gareth Hughes of the Green Party hit the nail on the head when he reminded us that Ted Heath's Conservative government of 1973 was more left-wing than Starner's 2025 Labour Party.

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Mike T

No. Your Party and The Greens have some very extreme/downright bizarre opinions. Hard left. Undoubtedly. Just as Reform are hard right. And please don't publish that vile symbol. It's just not on.

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Padi Phillips

What's not on? Your Party and the Greens might contain the odd nutter, but so do many other parties, but that doesn't characterise them. Your Party are busy expelling the Socialist Worker's Party entryists, so that's job done as far as anything ear the far left are concerned - and the SWP is hardly that far left. Define extreme/bizarre? I'm sure both you and I hold opinions and viewpoints that others might regard as extreme or bizarre. Your Party won't get far until they solve their internal fractures, but the Green Party is polling well and its membership is booming, so they must appeal to the mainstream at some level - which also means they are mot perceived as extreme. I suggest you look at the graphic before making foolish comments.

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Padi Phillips

Look a little more closely at the graphic. It says it all in my opinion.

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Nigel Farage and Reform UK have no interest in Wales. Let's make this perfectly clear. They are foremost an English far-right party who attract those voters happy to sell Wales out. The kind who voted against devolution in 1997. Don't t...

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