Welsh Independence - paying the price.

Um, how much income would crown estates bring to Wales after independence? Would we still be that poor?

Even if all of this were true, it would still be 100% worth it

What you are basically saying Mike is that we in Wales are not good enough!

Mike, the bottom line is that the Tories are typically in charge in Westminster, Wales typically votes for centre left parties. We are governed by another country with different politically values. Me thinks you are a Tory Mike.

The Elephant on the doorstep Mike Hedges doesnt mention - and its a particularly unpleasant Elephant - is Nigel Farage and his rabidly English nationalist party in number 10 downing street. Suspect that terrifying and very realistic prospect will do more to sway people in favour of welsh indy than any number of stats and counter stats and claims and counter claims. And lets face it those stats are damning - whether its poverty, ill health, life expectancy, social mobility etc being part of the british state has meant Wales has the worst statistics of the lot. Futhermore mike hedges has made clear in this article he'd rather inflict a farage govt on Wales - with all its devastating consequences - than see a Wales where every decision affecting our country was taken by the people of Wales and by the (almost certainly) progressive Welsh govts we'd elect. Nuff said. Thank you Mr Hedges - youve done more to boost the cause of Welsh indy than you could have imagined (and certainly more than you intended).

    Mike Hedges is claiming the same calamity for Wales as The Times declared for an independent Malta (6/1/1959): “Malta cannot live on its own........the island could pay for only one-fifth of its food and essential imports ..... and the economy of the country would collapse without British Treasury subventions. Talk of full independence for Malta is therefore hopelessly impractical”. Independent Malta is now considerably more prosperous than Wales. Moreover, not one of the 165 countries having gained independence in the last century has chosen colonial status again.        

Yes, it is Project Fear by you, Mike. You say that Wales would need to carry its proportion of the UK debt, I assume you mean on the basis of population - so say, 4%. By that reckoning, we would also be given our share (also by population, not location) of all UK assets, eg palaces, government buildings, London Bridges, the UK motorway network, etc etc, which we could sell off to the highest bidder.

This is a useful piece of political theorising. It is always good to understand how your opponents think. And MH raises some qustions that indeed need answering or settling as Indi develops. But he gives a one-sided list of problems and outcomes. Would we want to have 7% of UK armed forces or would we want a more purely home defence model? Why could we not have variable VAT for geographically specific spending, e.g. in restaurants or for physical ser ices in Wales such as building work? Etc etc There us time for us to work out ways of avoiding most of the probkems he flags up because an indi referendum is years away at the best.

This is a new low when the respected Mike Hedges gets drawn into the Labour petty deceits & misrepresentation.  Firstly, how does focussing on how poor we are as a part of the Union, become a positive argument for remaining?  Also, we then have the petty obfuscations, like not mention that 33% of our second largest expense, pensions, is paid to English retirees!  Or that we pay the highest per capita defence cost in U.K. & Northern Europe!  He fails to mention that despite paying £1.8Billion for defence only £1.1 Billion is spent here?  Or that 33% of our OAPs were born in England & the drain that has on our highest expense the NHS!  He fails to mention the £2.2 Billion we pay as interest to the U.K. debt!  He fails to mention we own 5% of the U.K. government infrastructure!  He fails to mention that the UN rules do not allow a coloniser to charge for a proportion on of their debt to be paid by the exiting colony!  He fails to mention we are a net exporting nation! (England isn’t)  He fails to mention we are self sufficient in power! (England isn’t) (We export over 50% of our production)  He fails to mention we are self sufficient in Water & export £billion For free!  He fails to mention we can use the £ until we set up a central bank.  He fails to mention that London gets the most public expenditure! He fails to mention we pay twice as much for defence as Ireland.  He fails to mention that the U.K. despite being the 6th LARGEST economy in the world is only the 30th richest! Hardly a great success?  He fails to mention our current GDP per capita still puts us in the top 50 in the world, despite being badly run by Westminster.  He fails to mention that the top ten richest nations in the world are all small nations like us.  The failures go on & on & you have to ask why are Labour intent on running us down? Could it be something to do with them not being a Welsh political party at all! A party that has a first duty to it’s Westminster boss?  Lies by omission & obfuscation are still lies Mike! Sad!

Congratulations Mike on revealing your true loyalties. Party before country and all that goes with it. Well I for one will be showing this article to my friends who live in your constituency and hopefully it will persuade them to vote you out on next year's elections.

I wonder if Mike Hedges has read the research paper commissioned by Plaid Cymru from the Irish academic Prof. John Doyle which makes a much deeper forensic analysis and concludes the fiscal transfer is far less than £12 to 15 billion?

A really useful article. Wales will need to concentrate on further developing renewable energy, and training for advanced agricultural and engineering skills. If Independence is the goal, we need to start preparing now for a sustainable economy.

And this is why you shouldn't have a part in Welsh politics. If you're that out of touch with the electorate, you're just not listening.

"higher taxes and poorer public services". Yes Mike, that sums up the benefits of Unionism for Cymru. If we don't create our own political future we'll be absolutely screwed.

I did not stand for election to make my constituents poorer, and I believe strongly in the redistributive funding method that exists in the United Kingdom. Lol. So, if you were to say that Wales keeps its revenues, funds its own public spending and then makes a population-based contribution to the UK-wide situation, at least as it stands, that would lead to quite a large fiscal deficit for Wales. I see you're conveniently forgetting 'Why' Wales is in this situation. It has an aging population (more so than England), it has a sicker population and it is more affected by poverty. This has been the case since Thatcher and years of chronic subsequent investment by both Labour and Tory Westminster Governments have led to the current situation we find ourselves in. We were just about getting ourselves out of it through EU funding (there was still a lot to do) when wham Brexit (which we collectively voted for, after being promised the funding would be matched, it wasn't) then Covid-19, then Truss, now Starmer. About the only half decent PM the UK has had since Brexit was Rishi, everyone else has been demonstrably much worse. Staying with the same entity that is CAUSING deprivation in Wales, not 'has' caused, but 'is causing' through its arbitrary and callous policies targeting the poorest in our society rather than the richest, something the Welsh Government has no control over (and has, credit to them, complained to Westminster).... is a nonsense. Now, I did vote for Brexit and I don't regret it, I'm aware that it has caused a few problems, yes it's worth it. I would 100% vote for independence, because it's the right thing to do, even if it leaves us poorer. Like the Scots, Wales is predominantly left of center, yet we periodically have to suffer through a Tory government that does not match Welsh Values. Even the Welsh Tories don't agree with Westminster Tories half the time. It is right that Wales should get the government it wants and have complete say on how it divides its own resources, even if its a smaller pot. Who knows, Wales might even apply to join the EU (wouldn't recommend it but it's a possibility). If we have learnt lessons from the European referendum, they are firstly that the detail needs negotiating before the vote, secondly those things that were going to be simple to negotiate were not and thirdly a trade deal is needed. Absolute nonsense. None of this will be simple to negotiate, but it would be much better to do so as two separate entities. There would need to be a transitional arrangement while both countries set up their own departments. The problem we had with Brexit is Northern Ireland (which complicates the heck out of things, but we wouldn't have that problems.) The negotiation should either happen before a relationship starts (Pre-nup) or once it has finished (Divorce). Income Tax should be devolved already. VAT and Duties should be devolved. Pensions and other benefits should also be devolved. I'm sure you agree it would be more than sensible for Wales to have these powers.

Don't worry. Union or Independence, the old 20th century idea that the dividing lines are economic rather than cultural, are swiftly dying out.

The biggest thing holding Wales back is the terrible standard of it's politicians.

While you rightly highlight the economic risks of independence, I believe making it a long-term aim for Wales gives us strength. By building capacity gradually (developing our economy, institutions, and trade) we address the very concerns you raise. Independence is not an all-or-nothing leap, but a goal that prepares us to choose: either deepen our role within the UK as a more equal and empowered partner, or chart our own path with full sovereignty. That optionality strengthens Wales’s bargaining power and safeguards our future.

Interesting stuff. But how does Mike not seem to appreciate that Wzles is in the financial predicament that it is as part of the Union. It's the Union that's holding us back. Nothing changes until we leave.

What Mike fails to address entirely is that the current socioeconomic state of play is a product of the UK State and hence governance. Other small nations in the EU have advanced on those metrics while Wales falls behind on those measures. Furthermore, the notional deficit (which is also disputed) is again, a product of UK Government decisions. Mike's argument is for the birds. If he wanted better outcomes for his constituents he would urgently seek a better arrangement than the UK offers Wales. The key measure for Welsh interest is productivity. We have an £80Bn+ economy. If we tax at the EU average ratio, we would have a comparitively small deficit - within EU membership rules. The primary goal then would be to increase productivity by investing in our economy in a way that the UK has utterly failed. That is therefore the remit of those who would govern a Welsh State.

He doesn't say such a thing. You're putting words in his mouth. Do us all a favour with your fearmongering rubbish and pack it in.

There is little to add to the comments already made. However, I would refer readers to my Nation Cymru rebuttal of these arguments which Jo Stevens presented in October. Same approach, misleading, dodgy statistics. Panic setting in?

Plaid Cymru have made it very clear that independence is not going to happen anytime soon, yet Labour treat any discussion of Wales’s potential as some sort of threat. The reality is that maintaining the status quo has always been in Labour’s self-interest, not in the Welsh national interest. Small independent countries like Ireland and Estonia show how nations of Wales’s size can thrive by building innovative economies, specialising in high-value sectors, and creating responsive, efficient governments. Wales could do the same, but we’re stuck inside a centralised UK system built around London. We get crumbs and the jobs no one else wants: such as coal mining, warehouses, and call centres, yet we’re expected to be grateful. Without the economic levers that successful small nations use to shape their futures, we remain at a structural economic disadvantage. Labour benefit from this dependency. A more prosperous, confident Wales wouldn’t automatically vote Labour, and they know it. That’s why they resist giving Wales meaningful powers. Yes, independence involves a period of adjustment, every country goes through that. But the long-term benefits of self-government and tailored economic policy far outweigh the risks of remaining in a political structure that systematically holds Wales back. Scotland is likely to go first. Its natural resources and strategic military position will give it bargaining power to negotiate a post-UK settlement with London, on issues like borders and currency. But this would set a precedent for Wales, allowing us to learn from Scotland’s transition and approach independence from a clearer, more informed position. The real danger is not independence, it’s accepting permanent stagnation under a system designed for someone else’s benefit.

If you asked all of the countries that gained their independence from the British empire - did they do it for economic reasons? Their answer would be a resounding - no! Remember how poor Ireland was upon independence and look at it now. No one is saying independence would be easy but it would mean - our future, our prosperity, how we address the currently one third of our children in poverty and the endemic poverty in places like the south Wales valleys - is in our own hands and not in a London parliament, that frankly, just doesn't give a sh*t.

There is a fallacy when he talks about "When you include a population share of some of those UK-wide expenses like debt interest, defence and foreign affairs and so on" Skipping over debt to the part I want to speak about. Defence spending includes funding nuclear weapons - which Wales would not be allowed to have under Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Defence spending also covers two aircraft carriers (only eight countries in the world have aircraft carriers) Not as if we are going to leave with 5% of two aircraft carriers. Wales also doesn't need to fund a military that is the third largest on the planet (as Britain does) and able to deploy anywhere globally in 24 hours. So looking at the continuation of UK spending in an independent Wales when the continuation is unlikely or even illegal is incorrect.

Brexit has made independence Impossible, wales would be out of the UK, don't expect a trade deal like the UK and EU, that was worth hundreds of Billions. Wales would be out of the the UK, it's largest trading partner, out of the EU, and behind many countries waiting to join, it would be out of the tarrif, tax and quota FTA with the EU, out of the CPTPP, out of the 70+ FTA carried over from the EU, out of the India FTA, out of the soon to be GCC FTA, and out of new / improved FTA's with Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Canada. We would not be a G7, or G20 country, we would not be part of the UNSC. Just recently the UK has secured huge ammounts of investment in data centres, some which are being built in Wales (shovels already in grouns) to provide for other parts of the UK, public and private, that's the future, only a uneducated nationaliat would throw away the best deal ever, Devolution but part of a $5+ trillion economy by 2030. You really don't know what you have.

Would England be able to maintain its membership of the G7, G20, and permanent membership of the UN Security Council, if the UK ceased to exist? Would England lose some of its current international influence, power and soft power if the UK ceased to exist? Does this have any bearing on why England wants to hold on to Wales, Scotland and the north of Ireland? Would the money England could save by not propping up Wales pay for the cost of purchasing Wales' water and energy supply? Or are there any other, better reasons for England's apparent generous philanthropy of maintaining such economic basket cases, and doing it at its own expense?

The biggest question facing an independent Wales would be our long land border with England. Mike Hedges is right to recognise that we would need to be in a customs union. We would also need to be in a single market if we want to ensure the free movement of people, goods, services and capital across the border. That then raises the question of where and how the rules for that market would be set. An independent Wales could find we were still tightly constrained by Westminster in how we run our economy or manage migration. I have yet to see any serious analysis by supporters of independence of this problem, although it was acknowledged by the Senedd Independence Commission.

Sorry, but you are totally wrong. Wales could and can be an independent country. We have the natural resources and ability as a people to succeed. We would cut our cloth accordingly not live beyond our means like little Britain does who still think it's a world superpower. There are far smaller nations than Wales independent. So please stop talking our country down. I'm sick of those who lack confidence in their own ability so reflect their insecurities onto Wales. Don't be the problem that holds us back. Be part of the solution that moves us forward.

Throwing in mention of Mongolia and Uruguay is somewhat scatalogical and smacks of mockery. It's a fact well known in the media that Wales is exactly the same size as Israel.

How much is water worth that goes over the border it’s billions, dept wales pays taxes that pay for England and wales projects HS2 for one. If London wants to play hardball they can get their water from somewhere else.

Firstly, under international law, the leaving country (Wales) carries NONE of the debt of the “parent” country (UK). However, Wales would probably accept some of the UK’s debt in return for a good trade deal with Rest of U.K. (RoUK). And how many aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines or F35 stealth aircraft would Wales need? That’s where Welsh money goes. Prof John Doyle of Dublin Uni has studied this. Read his report: https://assets.nationbuilder.com/plaid2016/pages/12081/attachments/original/1664447377/The_Fiscal_Deficit_in_Wales_-_why_it_does_not_represent_an_accurate_picture_of_the_opening_public_finances_of_an_Independent_Wales_by_Prof_John_Doyle_-.pdf?1664447377 Prof Doyle shows that Wales can do it! Ymlaen!!

Even thinking about is total madness . I am proud to stand up anywhere and shout out loud I am Welsh But thankfully not stupid to even think for one moment of suggesting for Wales to go Independent . I appreciate the feeling of wanting too . But is A feeling of self centered foolishness . And the sooner all the people join together to strive for a better Wales for everyone All our Public Services are at present the bottom of the league If we went independent they would be even worse The reason they are so bad at present Is because they have been ignored . The whole Administration of Wales needs A complete overhaul public money is wasted on the far too many Councils they all duplicate the same services They have shown by supposedly working from home they could easily be reduced The Senedd has failed Wales completely and should Be Abolished Get public money spent Properly at present far to much WASTE

Mike Hedges, Labour MS celebrates centuries of successful British Empire/UK rule over Cymru and the success of his Labour government rule in Cardiff Bay over the last 1/4 century. Delusion? Yes, Nigel Farage's Brexit disaster, delivered by Mike's prefered government has shown that many things have to be sorted out before independence. Reformers knew what they wanted but it seems that no one who voted to leave "got the Brexit they voted for". Banking - including currency, will have to be sorted out. Other countries smaller than Cymru seem to have managed but Mike doesn't think we are clever enough. We could use our own currency, the pound, the euro, the dollar, the Renminbi, ... Independent countries have a civil service. It is entirely possible that an independent England will chose to continue to use the services of the DVLA in Mike's Abertawe. Like most of our (Welsh) needs these are decided by the English government in Westminster. Mega rich Canary Wharf got more 'Levelling Up' than the whole of Cymru. Defence - Cymru will need defence but not on the scale of the (already greatly reduced) UK military. Cymru currently contributes between 2.8% (GERW) and 4% (OGS). More than any other UK nation. I was once asked how many aircraft carriers Cymru could afford? We now know how many drones it takes to sink a £multi-million aircraft carrier. We don't need aircraft carriers (or a nuclear capability) but we do need schools and hospitals. Other countries have signed trade deals and customs unions but Mike doesn't think that Cymru is clever enough to do that. The trade deals that his English government have signed over the years have been disasterous for Cymru (Tata Steel, unlimited access to Welsh markets for New Zealand lamb ... ). Income Tax - (isn't that 'Civil Service' above?). Has Mike's English government done such a good job of providing for our needs through taxation? Cymru is more likely to create a Wealth Tax (with an associated Exit Tax) than his English government. The gap between the top 10% and the bottom 10% in the UK increased by 48% between 2011 and 2019. Wealth disparity continues to grow under his Labour government. Security (other than Defence above?) - individual E.U. countries have their own border forces but also collaborate together. Who knew! Cymru already provides more than the 2% required of NATO members. National Debt - Mike's English government has created a National Debt of £2.9 trillion, 96.4% of GDP (1/11/25 ONS Public Sector Finances). Cymru is required to pay for Westminsters negligent budgeting (£ billions/year in interest). Many sources state that the Welsh economy has been in surplus since WW2. VAT and duties - What a wonderful place to end. Yes, every penny spent in Tesco, Sainsbury, B&Q, Wetherspoon's, ... provides VAT to Mike's English government. That same government allows many companies (Amazon ... ) to avoid paying tax at all. That same government actually gives money to Big Oil (Shell ...). Mike's English government gives many 'right-wing' 'Think Tanks' (Propaganda sites - 'European Research Group' ... ) charity status to avoid tax. That's it for now, I'm off to watch the sun set on Mike's British Empire.