Wednesday, 15th July 2026 Cardiff 28° · Clear sky
NationCymru A news service by the people of Wales, for the people of Wales.

Opinion

We are sleepwalking to independence

By Mark Mansfield
Picture by YesCymru

Rob Hughes

It has been a long time coming.

Whilst following the result in Caerffili there were obviously some key take aways. Labour vote collapsing, Reform, walking into their Coronation as the new party of Wales, but leaving visibly shaken and the Conservatives along with the Lib Dems losing their deposits and then some. And Plaid Cymru, pronounced in a variety of ways, winning.

Yet, somehow, the London press and commentators missed potentially the biggest story of the night. It’s not surprising they did, such is their complete ambivalence to Wales, failing to grasp the reasoning behind the result and not even sure what Welsh parties stand for.

But miss it they did. So here is a quick attempt to rebalance the narrative.

I’m from a Welsh family but was brought up in Reading. So, I always felt like a Cymro Oddi Cartref (a Welshman away from home), and moved to Wales at another critical time in 1997. On moving to Wales permanently, I was shocked by how few people in Wales backed independence.

The devolution vote in 1997 was far closer than my untrained eye expected it to be and the game looked lost until the winner from Carmarthenshire deep into added time.

[mid-content-banner]

Scorned Wales

I had come from an area that scorned Wales, that looked to exploit it at any time. I remember during times of water shortages, rather than looking at how the south-east of England might solve its water shortages with local infrastructure, conversations commonly included phrases like ‘can’t we just drown another village no-one can pronounce to build a reservoir in Wales’.

An interesting observation that I have had since then is that lots of those who believe in Welsh independence, have spent some time in England, either living there, working there or going to university there. Maybe we could make it a thing.

So, in the Merthyr Valleys, I was a bit of an oddity. Not because I was, in their eyes an Englishman who supported independence, just because I supported independence at all. It was polling about 3 to 5% at the time and genuinely looked as unachievable as living on Jupiter.

The shift towards supporting independence has been credited to key events and an awakening in national awareness. The Scottish referendum in 2014 gave people in Wales a realistic fear that Scotland may go, and we started to question ‘what is Wales?’ on a national level.

[lower-mid-content-banner]

Euro 2016

The formation of YesCymru is a direct result of that time. Euro 2016 brought us together as a nation, no North and South, no Welsh-speaking / non-Welsh speaking friction, but an urban and rural one nation united behind Bale. And Covid gave us an insight in how a Welsh Government could govern better. And for independence, making the leap forwards, means you don’t generally turn back. It has remained in the forefront since, with celebrities, politicians and a growing number of Welsh people, specifically younger people, supportive.

Which brings us back to the biggest story of the night in the Caerphilly by-election.

Since the growth of support in independence started in around 2016, Independence Supporting parties have won around a quarter of the vote, keeping pace with general support for independence (Support for independence, currently sits at around 40%), before stagnating. In 2016, it was 25.9%, 28.5% in 2021. In Westminster elections the story is similar but a little worse with 25.5% voting for pro-indy parties in 2024.

In Caerphilly, on the 23rd of October 2025, at least 49.3% of voters voted for indy supporting parties, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Gwlad. If, in the aim of being mischievous, we add the oft quoted figure of half of Labour voters supporting indy, we get to around 55%. Now before the cries of “lending votes”, “Plaid doesn’t really believe in independence”, or “it was to keep Reform out” start, I want to give you a little scenario.

In Wales, if you don’t vote Reform, you don’t like Reform. Reform have a small target area for potential new supporters, their vote is what it is. Labour are going to struggle. There is every chance that Plaid Cymru will be the biggest party in the Senedd and form the Government in May. For Scotland, see Wales, probably with the SNP / Greens / Alba winning a higher share of the vote. With no election until 2027, Sinn Fein will be the largest party in Stormont.

Seismic change

If Reform win the General Election as expected, we will have the perfect recipe for fundamental and seismic change in the make up of the UK. A British nationalist Reform government in Westminster could well be too much to stomach, not only for the Scots to walk away, but for the Welsh too. Soft No voters will be far easier to convince if this plays out, and unlike Scotland we have no organised hard-core pro-Union networks to fight the Unionist corner.

So as the Tories quite rightly predicted, we are sleepwalking to independence. Except when we wake up, it’s not the nightmare they promised, it’s an achievable, realistic dream full of hope and potential.

We are quite possibly sitting on the cusp of independence, and no-one east of the border has any idea that it is happening. That is the biggest story from Caerphilly, the Welsh are on the move! We are oddities no more. Independence is normal.

Just don’t tell the London Media……..long live their ambivalence for Wales!

For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.

47 comments

Chris Hale

I hope you are right!

Reply
James Edwards

Pretty accurate I reckon. The English media’s reporting of the Caerphilly by Election result was embarrassing.

Reply
Alan Jones

How true, one week before the by election there was a two minute segment on Caerfflili on the BBC lunch time news immediately followed by a six minute segment on Green Turtles. Nothing against Green Turtles of course but absolutely highlights the ignorance & ambivalence towards Cymru. Remember also the astonishment & faux outrage when Mark Drakeford flexed his devolved muscle during the covid pandemic. You have to wonder though if staying under the radar works better for Cymru at times!

Reply
Thepnr

There may be "no organised hard-core pro-Union networks to fight the Unionist corner" right now but if the Welsh keep voting like they have in Caerphilly last week then you soon will have. If the Welsh like the Scots look like they might actually at some point in the near future have a majority that support Independence then the forces of Westminster will start their very own Project Fear in Wales. You will find that the BBC in particular but almost every "national" newspaper sold in Wales thinks Plaid Cymru are the work of the devil and you will be forced to hear over and over that Wales would never never never manage without Westminster to tuck them in and keep them fed. All bollocks of course but it's a certainty that if PC do very well next year and actually become the Government of Wales then things will change and you will notice very quickly. There is no UK without Wales or Scotland and they fear that very much. Here's to Welsh Independence from one of your friends in the North.

Reply
smae

Daily reminder that Independence ALWAYS means hard choices and less to go around. It's never the economic choice to make, economically we're always better united... but as we've found out this quickly leads to exploitation. Independence is an emotional choice first and last. Somethings are worth more than money, being able to set your own rules about how your resources (no matter how small they are) should be spent, it's about protecting your own culture and it's about being able to make decisions without the interference of vested interests from abroad. We saw the effects of independence when the UK separated from the EU and we'll likely see the same thing when we leave the UK. All of the same arguments that are currently leveled at Brexiteers will be the same arguments foisted on YesCymru both before and after independence is granted. Anything that YesCymru suggests that "could" happen post independence will be jumped on as if they could deliver it despite not being in power. I wonder how many people either born or raised in England have returned to Wales support independence over all, is it more than the natives?

Reply
Buzby

This isn't true. Wales, Scotland and the northern English regions are all poorer than they would be on their own. This is necessary to make London richer than it could ever be without the rest of the UK to suck dry of talent and investment. But the solution to this is to rebalance the UK economy so every region and nation is punching above its weight. Those that fear a wealthier Wales within the UK would dull a desire for independence should look to Basque region which is one of the richest parts of Spain but still wants out. Those that seek to hold the UK together by impoverishing most of it should think again about their priorities.

Reply
smae

Wales has a much bigger proportion of people on benefits per capita, sick/disabled and older. Just for clarity I'm pro Independence, even with the economic penalty. (Same reason I voted Brexit, I believe Wales should be Independent not subordinate to some other country).

Reply

In reply to smae

Buzby

Which is a consequence of UK union membership because many young people move to the UK capital to take advantage of the jobs and opportunities hoarded there. The result is a population in Wales that's proportionally older.

Reply

In reply to Buzby

John Young

Also allowing for the influx of English retirees.

Reply
Cymro Sir Fynwy

Whenever Welsh Independence is mentioned it is arrogantly stated that we are far too poor to survive on our own and how England takes up the shortfall. Us Welsh people should be grateful for that kind of benevolence. The question I have is, If we cost England so much money as we cannot possibly support ourselves, why don't they want us to go alone and take the step to independence. Fair question ❓

Reply

In reply to Cymro Sir Fynwy

smae

Tbf, as I pointed out, it doesn't matter whether we'd be too poor or not. The question is: do we want to make these decisions for ourselves. If the answer to that question is yes, then we should be independent. My comment is not about whether we would be too poor, it's that the economic argument is moot either way.

Reply
John Ellis

'Daily reminder that Independence ALWAYS means hard choices and less to go around.' The history of the first fifty years of an independent Ireland certainly tend towards endorsing that thesis. And, over there, they had some advantages back in those days which we in Wales don't have. Even so, my impression is that the bulk of Irish citizens didn't regret leaving the UK, and since the standard of living over there in the last few decades has on average been higher than it's been here, it seems to have turned out OK in the end!

Reply
smae

Any vote for Plaid Cymru, is a tacit vote for support for independence and at the moment UK means 'Reform' (or Tory Party rebranded). Even if it's not a full throated endorsement, it's like saying "Well independence is better than having a Reform rep" as Plaid will always campaign for independence and seek more and more powers even if it doesn't feel it can make the break within the first term.

Reply
Phil Evans

‘…..lots of those who believe in Welsh independence have spent some time in England’. I agree wholeheartedly. For me it was spending three years just over the border in Hereford, after I’d finished college and started my first job. You have to leave Wales to appreciate how some people look down their noses at us. We will always play second fiddle in the Union.

Reply
David J

I have been criticised on these pages for describing the contempt and derision expressed by far too many english people (even educated ones) when discussing Cymru, despite that being my common experience while living over the border. I know that anecdote is not data, but if you need proof, just look at the way the english media either ignore us, or show little understanding of life, society and attitudes here. On a slightly less serious note (though not by much) I am having difficulty finding any You Tuber, who puts up footage of their holidays in Cymru, taking the time to learn how to pronounce correctly the names of the places they rave about on their videos.

Reply
Rob

Wales has been on a gradual path toward independence since the 19th century. As has Ireland and Scotland. What began as the recognition of a distinct Welsh culture under direct rule evolved into administrative devolution in the 1960s and, later, full legislative and executive powers in the 1990s to today. The truth is that a highly centralised state governing four distinct nations does not work. Especially when one, England, accounts for roughly 85% of the population. The result has been chronic neglect of the smaller nations within the Union. If the United Kingdom were ever to remain permanently intact, it would need to adopt a genuine federal constitution, similar to the United States, Canada, Germany, or Australia. But such reform has never been in England’s perceived national interest. Meanwhile, Scotland’s abundant natural resources and strategic military importance would give it strong leverage in any post-UK negotiations with London, setting the precedent for Wales to follow suit.

Reply
Llyn

I think we are a long way from reaching independence. One swallow does not make a summer. Remember Adam Price was supposedly on his way to being the next FM before the last Senedd election? At the moment I would suggest we are far closer to a Reform UK Welsh Government than Welsh independence. Before the pile on I will be voting Plaid next year.

Reply
David Hughes

Come on Wales led by Plaid,we can gain our Independence,and we desperately need to,this from a 76 yr old desperately waiting for the moment,Welsh Independence asap.

Reply
Garycymru

I think people realise that if Wales needs to survive in any form, we have to break free from this abusive relationship. Our natural resources are being plundered, we're paying millions for a Royal family caught up in "alleged" sex offences, we're fighting a constant media hate campaign from the Russian owned companies and handed the crumbs from the plate. Independence isn't just normal, it's now as essential as oxygen.

Reply
Undecided

You are right (despite being voted down). There is still only a clear minority supporting independence and Plaid know it. Hence kicking the issue into the long grass of a second term. The article is wishful thinking.

Reply
Lyn E

Wouldn’t we do better to be fully conscious of all options with their costs, benefits and risks, rather than sleepwalking anywhere?

Reply
David J

That information has been readily available for a long time (Google is your friend). I hope you are not expecting someone else to do your homework?

Reply
Lyn E

Wrong. I have read lots of stuff promoting the independence case that just skates over critical issues such as the border with England and its implications, blithely assuming away issues like free movement, single market, etc. The YesCymru ‘Independence in Your Pocket’ is a good (or bad) example.

Reply

In reply to Lyn E

CapM

Borders, the way you argue your case you'd think no other country had to deal with a border.

Reply

In reply to CapM

Lyn E

Of course every country has to deal with borders. That's exactly my point. Those borders can be dealt with in a wide variety of ways from openness with free movement of people, goods, capital and services, though barbed wire, border guards and customs posts, to conflict and war. Just look around the world. So tell me how an independent Wales would deal with its border with England. I've yet to see any answer to this that doesn't evade or trivialise the issue.

Reply

In reply to Lyn E

CapM

Your point is that you don't want Cymru to be a separate country from England. It seems that you think your opinion is proven correct as the inevitable consequence of a border where two countries are adjacent is an unsurmountable problem in the case of England and Cymru. Despite the hundreds of examples of boundaries of differing porosity, political entities, control, shared history, culture,overlap of language, family connections etc. You keep demanding answers but refuse to acknowledge they already exist.

Reply

In reply to CapM

Lyn E

I don't even know what you mean by 'separation'. We will never be geographically separate, geology prevents that. So what do you mean by it? You accuse me of demanding answers. Yes I am, and the people of Wales will demand them too. You seem to think that any border between Wales and England must be a good thing. But just look around the world. Is every border a success for the people on both sides? They can be, but there is no guarantee. I want to be sure that 'independence' would work in the interests of our people. You don't appear to care. Have you studied the Brexit negotiations and their aftermath? Are you happy with all of that? Fortunately, an open border has been maintained in Ireland, but that has required the north to remain in the EU single market and customs union. The Independence Commission recognised that maintaining cross-border movement and/or trade agreements could constrain policy options. Westminster could still be setting the rules. Have you thought about such questions? I don't have a firm position for or against formal constitutional independence. The people of Wales have the right to self-determination. But sleepwalking is just not good enough. Why are advocates of independence upset when people ask questions? We deserve answers.

Reply

In reply to Lyn E

CapM

'I don’t even know what you mean by ‘separation’.' I didn't write 'separation'. If you w\ant to quote me at least be accurate. Surely in this context you understand the phrase 'a separate country from England' A clue - it doesn't involve constructing a water filled trench between the Afon Dyfrdwy and Afon Hafren.

Reply

In reply to CapM

Lyn E

You're quite desperate to avoid the question, aren't you? For Cymru to become 'a separate country from England' it will have to undergo a process of separation. But if you can't handle the grammar, then explain what you mean by 'a separate country'.

Reply

In reply to Lyn E

David J

If you want to see how borders without barbed wire work, and how economic and cultural differences can be maintained without conflict, travel a bit in the Schengen area, you will be pleasantly surprised.

Reply

In reply to David J

Lyn E

The Schengen area is becoming less open as migration paranoia breeds mistrust. Most member countries now have temporary (but often restarted) border controls within the area. https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/schengen/schengen-area/temporary-reintroduction-border-control_en

Reply

In reply to Lyn E

CapM

The UK is a 'separate country' to the Rep of Ireland, France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and others. The UK was 'a separate country' to them when it was a member of the EU. The UK is also 'a separate country' from every other member country of every supranational organisation it belongs to [eg WTO, UN] If you can't deduce an explanation from that on your own I'm not going to spend time joining the dots for you.

Reply

In reply to CapM

Lyn E

That implies a certain status in international law but I'm interested in more than a flag at the UN and diplomatic jaunts. The quality of life of the people of Wales matters more. You have again evaded the question of the border and many other questions of interdependency. Our economy, society and environment will remain closely entangled with that of England, and the wider world, whether or not we are formally separate. We would do well to recognise that and think through its implications. Not sleepwalk. In today's interconnected world, separation is better thought of not as binary but as multi-dimensional. All countries are tied into international agreements on everything from postal services to military alliances. Eurozone countries lack their own central bank. Even Trump's US is finding it cannot go its own way on everything. Your answer does though imply that you would be quite happy for England to impose border controls on people and trade once Wales had separated, as foreign countries do to the UK today. Is that right? I doubt you would find much enthusiasm among the people of Wales for such restrictions on our freedom.

Reply

In reply to CapM

Royston Bowen

Yes but how many of those countries are so reliant on hospitals the other side of the border. Many Welsh people use English hospitals because it is the closest and most convenient. Other Welsh people use English hospitals because they are seen as more efficient. Then there are airports in England that work. I can't think of a country that would have to deal with a border like this.

Reply

In reply to Royston Bowen

CapM

No other countries deal with a border like the Cymru England border.But it's a mistake to think that borders can be separated into two types - the border between England and Cymru and all the rest. There are many other unique circumstances that borders across the world have to contend with. It might be that every border has it's own unique mix of advantages and constraints. ' I can’t think of a country that would have to deal with a border like this [hospitals and airports].' The traditional school teacher comment for such work is - Must try harder. You could read up about air travel options in the Benelux area and hospital services on the island of Ireland for example as a starting point. . .

Reply

In reply to Lyn E

jess allaway

Ireland seems to manage the border quite successfully

Reply

In reply to jess allaway

Lyn E

At present, yes. But you could not have said that for the internal Irish border in the late 20th century when it was a tight military frontier. That's the point. We cannot just assume everything will be fine. It will depend on circumstances and negotiations. Post-Brexit negotiations to keep the border open in line with the Good Friday Agreement proved fraught. There was no devolved government in northern Ireland between February 2022 and November 2024 while the original Windsor Framework between the UK and the EU was renegotiated. The open border depends on northern Ireland remaining in the EU's single market and customs union, with a few minor tweaks. It follows rules set in Brussels, as does the south. As the Independence Commission recognised, maintaining cross-border movement and/or trade agreements could constrain the policy options of a constitutionally independent Wales. Could we avoid still being dependent on Westminster, and if so how? These are not easy questions but anyone who cares for our country has to think about them. Sleepwalking is lazy evasion, and a recipe for a debacle. We have to look at our future with open eyes.

Reply

In reply to Lyn E

David J

"We have to look at our future with open eyes." Excellent advice, I hope you take it.

Reply

In reply to David J

Lyn E

I will. That’s why I’m trying to examine the problems from all angles.

Reply

In reply to Lyn E

David J

As we discovered with Brexit, independence will bring many problems which are not only unforeseen at the moment, but unimaginable. To expect a detailed blueprint at this stage is unreasonable. Obviously (again like Brexit) independence will not happen overnight, and there should be plenty of time during that process to deal with the difficulties which are bound to arise. A lot will depend on the attitude of the EU, as an independent Cymru would not, in my opinion, survive unless we rejoin. As far as borders go, I don't see a problem, and neither would anyone who, like me, has had the pleasure of walking from Spain to France on a country road, and not even knowing which country I was in until I saw a road sign in French. Free movement would come with EU membership, so young and not-so-young people here would regain their European citizenship, with all the advantages that brings, and Cymru would benefit from the contributions of EU citizens here.

Reply

In reply to David J

Lyn E

Most of the post-Brexit problems were predicted by those of us who campaigned against it, although I didn’t give enough weight to the Irish border question, considering which now leads me to see the issue of the Welsh-English border as central to any thinking about the implications of independence. Would we not have done better to give fuller consideration to all the issues ahead of leaving? Our relationship with the EU would be important but membership could not substitute for connections with England, by far our largest trade partner and across the border with which many tens of thousands of people travel every day. As the arguments over the Irish border show, membership of the EU single market would imply barriers with England at immense cost to Wales. If both England and Wales joined the EU as member states, many of the problems would be greatly eased, which is another reason why independence for Wales cannot be properly considered without thinking about England.

Reply
smae

Google is never your friend, it's your toxic gaslighting bully that supports manipulation and data harvesting. Please use a different search engine!

Reply
Gwyn Hopkins

Over the 200 years following the American Revolutionary War of1783,165 colonies have gained independence from Western imperial powers, including 65 from the British Empire. Whatever their post-colonial political and economic state not a single one of these independent countries have shown any desire whatsoever to be re-colonised. They all much prefer independence to being a colony. The people of an independent Wales are sure to follow suit.

Reply
Erisian

Oooh good. Wake me up when we get there.

Reply
hdavies15

No, stay awake and play your part in securing the objective.

Reply
Buzby

Britain is the name of the island, independence won't change that.

Reply
smae

Nothing a few thousand tonnes of explosives wouldn't cure, ala Panama.

Reply

Leave a reply

Replying to John Young Cancel

Also allowing for the influx of English retirees.

Comments are reviewed before they appear.