Opinion
We are sleepwalking to independence
Rob Hughes
It has been a long time coming.
Whilst following the result in Caerffili there were obviously some key take aways. Labour vote collapsing, Reform, walking into their Coronation as the new party of Wales, but leaving visibly shaken and the Conservatives along with the Lib Dems losing their deposits and then some. And Plaid Cymru, pronounced in a variety of ways, winning.
Yet, somehow, the London press and commentators missed potentially the biggest story of the night. It’s not surprising they did, such is their complete ambivalence to Wales, failing to grasp the reasoning behind the result and not even sure what Welsh parties stand for.
But miss it they did. So here is a quick attempt to rebalance the narrative.
I’m from a Welsh family but was brought up in Reading. So, I always felt like a Cymro Oddi Cartref (a Welshman away from home), and moved to Wales at another critical time in 1997. On moving to Wales permanently, I was shocked by how few people in Wales backed independence.
The devolution vote in 1997 was far closer than my untrained eye expected it to be and the game looked lost until the winner from Carmarthenshire deep into added time.
[mid-content-banner]
Scorned Wales
I had come from an area that scorned Wales, that looked to exploit it at any time. I remember during times of water shortages, rather than looking at how the south-east of England might solve its water shortages with local infrastructure, conversations commonly included phrases like ‘can’t we just drown another village no-one can pronounce to build a reservoir in Wales’.
An interesting observation that I have had since then is that lots of those who believe in Welsh independence, have spent some time in England, either living there, working there or going to university there. Maybe we could make it a thing.
So, in the Merthyr Valleys, I was a bit of an oddity. Not because I was, in their eyes an Englishman who supported independence, just because I supported independence at all. It was polling about 3 to 5% at the time and genuinely looked as unachievable as living on Jupiter.
The shift towards supporting independence has been credited to key events and an awakening in national awareness. The Scottish referendum in 2014 gave people in Wales a realistic fear that Scotland may go, and we started to question ‘what is Wales?’ on a national level.
[lower-mid-content-banner]
Euro 2016
The formation of YesCymru is a direct result of that time. Euro 2016 brought us together as a nation, no North and South, no Welsh-speaking / non-Welsh speaking friction, but an urban and rural one nation united behind Bale. And Covid gave us an insight in how a Welsh Government could govern better. And for independence, making the leap forwards, means you don’t generally turn back. It has remained in the forefront since, with celebrities, politicians and a growing number of Welsh people, specifically younger people, supportive.
Which brings us back to the biggest story of the night in the Caerphilly by-election.
Since the growth of support in independence started in around 2016, Independence Supporting parties have won around a quarter of the vote, keeping pace with general support for independence (Support for independence, currently sits at around 40%), before stagnating. In 2016, it was 25.9%, 28.5% in 2021. In Westminster elections the story is similar but a little worse with 25.5% voting for pro-indy parties in 2024.
In Caerphilly, on the 23rd of October 2025, at least 49.3% of voters voted for indy supporting parties, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Gwlad. If, in the aim of being mischievous, we add the oft quoted figure of half of Labour voters supporting indy, we get to around 55%. Now before the cries of “lending votes”, “Plaid doesn’t really believe in independence”, or “it was to keep Reform out” start, I want to give you a little scenario.
In Wales, if you don’t vote Reform, you don’t like Reform. Reform have a small target area for potential new supporters, their vote is what it is. Labour are going to struggle. There is every chance that Plaid Cymru will be the biggest party in the Senedd and form the Government in May. For Scotland, see Wales, probably with the SNP / Greens / Alba winning a higher share of the vote. With no election until 2027, Sinn Fein will be the largest party in Stormont.
Seismic change
If Reform win the General Election as expected, we will have the perfect recipe for fundamental and seismic change in the make up of the UK. A British nationalist Reform government in Westminster could well be too much to stomach, not only for the Scots to walk away, but for the Welsh too. Soft No voters will be far easier to convince if this plays out, and unlike Scotland we have no organised hard-core pro-Union networks to fight the Unionist corner.
So as the Tories quite rightly predicted, we are sleepwalking to independence. Except when we wake up, it’s not the nightmare they promised, it’s an achievable, realistic dream full of hope and potential.
We are quite possibly sitting on the cusp of independence, and no-one east of the border has any idea that it is happening. That is the biggest story from Caerphilly, the Welsh are on the move! We are oddities no more. Independence is normal.
Just don’t tell the London Media……..long live their ambivalence for Wales!
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.