Opinion
2025 is a make or break year for Plaid Cymru
Jonathan Edwards
2025 is a gigantic year for Plaid Cymru. The party will celebrate its centenary in August. It can look back with pride on its contribution to the life of our country.
The Welsh language arguably would be in an even more precarious position had it not been for the efforts of the party to normalise its use in Welsh life.
When I was growing up, language baiting by some unionist politicians was a common tactic to sow division within the country. Those days are gone for the mainstream unionist parties and Plaid has been the main party political force legitimising the language.
It will be interesting to see the approach of Reform. If I was them, I would embrace the language despite the likely views of some of their leading figures. An anti-Welsh language platform could backfire spectacularly in the run-up to 2026.
There wouldn’t be a Welsh language television channel if it wasn’t for Plaid, though I personally fear that S4C is finished unless it adapts to the streaming age. My children don’t watch traditional TV; they want to control their own viewing itinerary and download what they want to watch.
There wouldn’t be a Welsh Parliament if it wasn’t for Plaid. It has used a bad political hand to strengthen the Senedd and I am glad that I was able to play a very small part in that work.
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Welsh nationhood
There is a strong argument to say that the party has managed to preserve Welsh nationhood by its very existence - no small achievement considering the strength of the British State and the forces at its disposal.
Despite this the party has flattered to deceive politically. The 1966 breakthrough, while being an historic achievement, was contained to the Fro Gymraeg. I can’t ever see Plaid Cymru winning a Westminster seat outside the Western seaboard unless an independence referendum is held which results in a realignment, as happened in Scotland after 2014.
In 25 years of devolved politics, it has only won three Valleys constituency and none in the capital, Swansea or Newport.
In the Senedd, apart from the unexpectedly good result in 1999, every election has been a disappointment.
I might be out of order, but my feeling is that the vast majority of Plaid Senedd Members are happy to be bystanders in opposition. I don’t get a sense of burning desire to govern Wales and to replace Labour.
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Battleground
The next Senedd election is within sight and this year will determine the battleground of that campaign. And for once the circumstances couldn’t be more favourable for the party.
A better set of conditions could not be asked for. Labour have ruled the Welsh Government since 1999 and in reality have been in management mode as opposed to governing mode for most of the last quarter of a century.
At UK level the new government couldn’t have got off to a worse start. Its sights are very much on 2029, front loading unpopular decisions which are going to hurt Labour in 2026 no matter what the Welsh Government does.
If the end of year economic projections come true and 2025 is another year of flatlining growth and compressed living standards, there will be no hiding place for Labour.
The conditions are ripe for an insurgency. The problem for Plaid is that the most potent force is likely to come from the British right in the shape of Reform. Plaid to all intents and purposes resembles continuity of Labour.
Posturing
Rhun ap Iorwerth has ended the cooperation agreement but that is superficial posturing. If it is to establish itself as the alternative to Labour, it needs to start outlining quickly how things under a Plaid Cymru government would be different.
Such a strategy would pose a risk as it would provide a target for their opponents, but I don’t think Plaid has the luxury of being able to sit back. Without an alternative platform, more and more voters will look to Reform to shake the Welsh political establishment up.
If Plaid Cymru fails to capitalise on the opportunities before it, then Welsh nationalists should start asking themselves serious questions about the future political strategy. After all, the cause of Welsh nationhood is far more important than Plaid Cymru.
My rabid enemies on the Plaid Cymru left will like this quote from Gramsci from his Prison Diaries: “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born.”
If it fails to win in 2026, Welsh nationalism will find itself in a similar interregnum.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-2024
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