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Opinion

2025 is a make or break year for Plaid Cymru

By Mark Mansfield
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth campaigning in Ammanford, south Wales, while on the General Election campaign trail.

Jonathan Edwards

2025 is a gigantic year for Plaid Cymru. The party will celebrate its centenary in August. It can look back with pride on its contribution to the life of our country.

The Welsh language arguably would be in an even more precarious position had it not been for the efforts of the party to normalise its use in Welsh life.

When I was growing up, language baiting by some unionist politicians was a common tactic to sow division within the country. Those days are gone for the mainstream unionist parties and Plaid has been the main party political force legitimising the language.

It will be interesting to see the approach of Reform. If I was them, I would embrace the language despite the likely views of some of their leading figures. An anti-Welsh language platform could backfire spectacularly in the run-up to 2026.

There wouldn’t be a Welsh language television channel if it wasn’t for Plaid, though I personally fear that S4C is finished unless it adapts to the streaming age. My children don’t watch traditional TV; they want to control their own viewing itinerary and download what they want to watch.

There wouldn’t be a Welsh Parliament if it wasn’t for Plaid. It has used a bad political hand to strengthen the Senedd and I am glad that I was able to play a very small part in that work.

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Welsh nationhood

There is a strong argument to say that the party has managed to preserve Welsh nationhood by its very existence - no small achievement considering the strength of the British State and the forces at its disposal.

Despite this the party has flattered to deceive politically. The 1966 breakthrough, while being an historic achievement, was contained to the Fro Gymraeg. I can’t ever see Plaid Cymru winning a Westminster seat outside the Western seaboard unless an independence referendum is held which results in a realignment, as happened in Scotland after 2014.

In 25 years of devolved politics, it has only won three Valleys constituency and none in the capital, Swansea or Newport.

In the Senedd, apart from the unexpectedly good result in 1999, every election has been a disappointment.

I might be out of order, but my feeling is that the vast majority of Plaid Senedd Members are happy to be bystanders in opposition. I don’t get a sense of burning desire to govern Wales and to replace Labour.

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Battleground

The next Senedd election is within sight and this year will determine the battleground of that campaign. And for once the circumstances couldn’t be more favourable for the party.

A better set of conditions could not be asked for. Labour have ruled the Welsh Government since 1999 and in reality have been in management mode as opposed to governing mode for most of the last quarter of a century.

At UK level the new government couldn’t have got off to a worse start. Its sights are very much on 2029, front loading unpopular decisions which are going to hurt Labour in 2026 no matter what the Welsh Government does.

If the end of year economic projections come true and 2025 is another year of flatlining growth and compressed living standards, there will be no hiding place for Labour.

The conditions are ripe for an insurgency. The problem for Plaid is that the most potent force is likely to come from the British right in the shape of Reform. Plaid to all intents and purposes resembles continuity of Labour.

Posturing

Rhun ap Iorwerth has ended the cooperation agreement but that is superficial posturing. If it is to establish itself as the alternative to Labour, it needs to start outlining quickly how things under a Plaid Cymru government would be different.

Such a strategy would pose a risk as it would provide a target for their opponents, but I don’t think Plaid has the luxury of being able to sit back. Without an alternative platform, more and more voters will look to Reform to shake the Welsh political establishment up.

If Plaid Cymru fails to capitalise on the opportunities before it, then Welsh nationalists should start asking themselves serious questions about the future political strategy. After all, the cause of Welsh nationhood is far more important than Plaid Cymru.

My rabid enemies on the Plaid Cymru left will like this quote from Gramsci from his Prison Diaries: “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born.”

If it fails to win in 2026, Welsh nationalism will find itself in a similar interregnum.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-2024

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15 comments

Joe Allen

Why so coy? Spell out the actual policy platform that you'd have them adopt.

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Garycymru

If Plaid don't up their game, and fast it's a very real possibility that the new Nazi party end up in the Senedd.

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S Duggan

We all know what people want, a great NHS, secure well paid jobs, cheaper living conditions. We also know Welsh Labour are struggling and have failed in many areas. The public don't need reminding of these issues. Reform are just going to focus on their pet hate - immigrants, and how they are causing all our woes. Plaid needs to focus on one topic too, make it their goal and give the message of inclusiveness, tolerance and love alongside it (basically the opposite to reform). Keep the message clear and simple and promote togetherness.

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John

I doubt they will delve into immigration - they know full well it's better to pass the buck to Labour/Westminster for this, plus they know they've already got the anti-immigration voters supporting them Instead, they will promise council tax freezes, higher income tax thresholds, 'clear the NHS waiting list', scrap business rates, build more roads, fill potholes. They will probably look to policies that pulls labour voters to them. The very ones Plaid needs!

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Dewi

Another excellent contribution from JE, but I think we may not fully agree on the solution. When voters say they won’t support Plaid Cymru, even with its good leadership, they often give the same reason: “Plaid Cymru is a party for middle-class Welsh speakers.” Whether this is true or not, it’s the challenge we face. That’s why Rhun must relaunch the party in 2025—its centenary year—much like Tony Blair did with New Labour. To connect with both Welsh and English speakers, the party should think about dual branding. This means using an English name for English-speaking folk and a Welsh name for Welsh speakers. We can do this through social media, leaflets, and telly appearances. Instead of two different names like: - Cymru Yfory - Future Wales The party could choose a single bilingual name, like YesCymru: - ForwardCymru. Let’s face it—sticking with the dull “Plaid Cymru” in both languages risks putting off the 82% of people in Wales who don’t speak Welsh. The Football Association of Wales (FAW) is a great example of building a strong national identity. Led by Ian Gwyn Hughes (whose grandfather once set fire to a bombing range!), the FAW has done more than anyone to boost Welsh pride. They’ve embraced the name Cymru and promoted Welsh identity without apology. This is a far cry from the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU), which is still stuck in royalist nostalgia. Plaid Cymru should take a page out of the FAW's book and modernise its image while staying inclusive and forward-thinking. To sharpen our messaging, we need to use focus groups beyond the Welsh-speaking areas to test new policies. We should discuss bold ideas on homelessness and easing the pressure on the NHS, which is driving working people into the arms of Reform. Plus, Plaid Cymru should make a deal with major political parties in Wales to keep the Welsh language out of politics. This way, we can all agree on: 1. Welsh language education expansion. 2. Promoting the language as part of our national identity. I truly believe most of the party wanted to keep JE as the candidate for Carmarthen. Those pushing for his removal aren’t just from the left; they’re a mixed bag reacting wildly to claims of marital conflict involving a man. This group—like historical witch-hunters—didn’t give JE a fair chance. A caution for common assault doesn't always mean someone threw a punch. Common assault can mean something as harmless as pointing a finger—who hasn’t done that during a heated chat? Sadly, JE's response to his expulsion came off as a bit petulant, making it look like he was throwing a tantrum. But there’s still hope for both him and Neil McEvoy, who is the only one who can really make waves in Cardiff, as JE says is so needed in his piece. We’ve never really been told why McEvoy faced disciplinary action. He’s often labelled a misogynist, but there’s no solid proof of that. Sure, his ex-partner campaigns against him, finding allies among the same crowd that quickly turned on JE. If both JE and McEvoy looked to the often-maligned Charles Haughey, they might find a way back. After being pushed out by Fianna Fáil after the Arms Crisis, Haughey didn’t sulk. Instead, he: 1. Contacted every party branch. 2. Engaged directly with grassroots members. 3. Rebuilt trust and eventually took the lead. He went on to become Taoiseach of Ireland and set the stage for Ireland’s economic success, which now sees its per capita GDP nearly double that of the UK. We need both JE and McEvoy: - One to shape economic policy. - The other to teach us how to campaign and win outside Welsh-speaking areas. As for Leanne Wood, or as I like to call her, the "Queen of Hearts," she can keep her musings to the valleys. We’ve had enough “off with their heads” drama to last a lifetime. After the rebranding and healing process, the last thing we need is to follow Leanne down her rabbit hole again.

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Jonathan Edwards

The problem over Neil M is that Plaid cancelled him, with the usual and intended results. He was put on his backside with a young family to support. So he has found it hard to do Welsh national politics. Well done Plaid Cymru, no doubt you feel pleased with yourselves. Here are two updates on Neil M. 1. He was not allowed to beat Drakeford in Cardiff West because his own party betrayed any chance he had. 2. He/Propel were able to beat Plaid into oblivion in Splott recently (and beat Reform in Wales) despite it all. And do well in Grangetown before that. Dewi is right with his diagnosis and prescription - as you would expect. But on a loser as the deluded patient is not listening and has been reading polls and Google-meds on the internet.

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Y Cymro

Voting for any other party than Plaid Cymru in 2025 will not benefit Wales. We've had the Welsh Conservatives since the devolution. vote 1997 campaign against the Senedd , an institution that gave them a bloody voice after their New Labour wipeout in 1997. We were for forced to endure Ukip/Brexit Party obtaining a voice thanks to the list seat system to the then Welsh Assembly, an Assembly they wanted to abolish, in which their members actively undermined Wales on behalf of ultra rightwing English Conservatives , one donor who thought Wales shouldn't be called a country but a constituent part of England. We had so-called Welshman Neil Hamilton, a man who refused flat to live in the very constituency he represented, that was also filmed cheering for England wearing an England football shirt, never Wales, whose 7 members fought against each other, missed vital votes, debates & committees, with one in particular (Nathan Gill) favouring travelling at great cost to the Welsh Taxpayer to bait along with Nigel Farage EU ministers in Brussels & Strasbourg while still receiving an Assembly & MEP wage. And now the very same fiscal tick is vying to become a Senedd Cymru member for Reform UK in 2025. And we've had 25 years of Welsh Labour where we haven't really moved forward as a country because Welsh Labour as a party are terrified of upsetting their London master. And less we forget these self-inflicted salvos. It was Welsh Labour First Minister who scrapped the 2017 Welsh Law passed protecting devolution only for PM Boris Johnson to steal Wales Brexit powers that should have returned to the Senedd, also stopped him from repatriating the Welsh Government EU Structural Funding Administration powers and their interfering in areas devolved. Oh, and what about Welsh Labour's agreeing to the dumping of English mud from Hinckley Point on the Wales side of the Severn Estuary. What about their refusal to have the devolution of rail infrastructure in 2005, a decision that enabled the English Conservatives under Boris Johnson regime the excuse to cynically put HS2 as an England & Wales denying us £4 billion HS2 consequential where England benefitted tens of billions of rail infrastructure investment and Scotland & Northern Ireland billions more in consequential. So why vote for Plaid Cymru, I hear you all say? I'll convince you why you should. Well the only reason why we have a Senedd Cymru today is thanks to the Plaid Cymru/Welsh Labour coalition in 2007 where Plaid secured a legislative referendum as part of the One Wales coalition, which we won in 2011, that's led to end of the patronising LCO System (Legislative Competent Order) and return of Welsh Law 600+ years after it was illegally dissolved by England's annexation. We forget that fact. And furthermore, in 2020 as a Senedd we were able to remove that patronising name "Welsh Assembly" and re-establish finally the more fitting title "Senedd Cymru" (Welsh Parliament) and add a further 36 members to our Welsh parliament having struggled for 27 years long years with only 60 members compared to Northern Ireland's Assembly that had an initial 108 MLAs since 1997 until it's reduction to 90 in 2016, a country by the way created after the partition of the nine counties of Ulster to six, a nation with half the population & landmass of Wales. Need I say more. Vote Plaid Cymru!

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Pedro Griffiths

"We were for forced to endure Ukip/Brexit Party obtaining a voice" I thought Wales voted in favour of Brexit?

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Ex Plaid member

Try being a English mostly speaker in Plaid. It's hell of a laugh... not

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Johnny Gamble

Not so for Monoglot English speaking members of Sinn Fein or the SNP

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Llew Gruffudd.

Many good points as usual, but as was said previously, don't be coy, what is the alternative approach you suggest. After all the alternative policy options are limited. As we approach the election, every party will save the health and care sector, improve our children's education, build more affordable homes and give more money to the local councils and give us a green and pleasant land.. Pre the recent Westminster election, Plaid promised a green economy, with 80000 green jobs. How was it to be financed. They would ask the Westminster government for £6 billion. That's not an alternative, that's fantasy. The reality is that whoever is the number one party in 2026, our illustrious Secretary of State, whoever it may be, will give them £20 billion to run the show. That just about keeps us where we are at present and that's not a very enticing prospect. So the party that gets my vote is the one that shows me how they are going to improve that £20 billion into £25 billion, or if they really want to get the economy going to improve things, £30 billion. Of course it wont be achieved under the present constitutional arrangement.

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Hedd Gwynfor

"My rabid enemies on the Plaid Cymru left". Ti llawer gwell na hyn Jonathan.

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Griff

Jonathan redodd ymgyrch Leanne i fod yn arweinydd nôl yn 2012 hefyd - ond mae'n gyfleus iddo anghofio hynny.

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Dewi

When he managed her campaign, he never anticipated that she would betray him over a minor domestic incident. It’s also likely that his ex-wife was influenced to intervene on behalf of those who seem more interested in condemning him outright than ensuring a fair trial—Leanne Wood. What’s most troubling, however, is that the voices of the children were completely overlooked. As a father, JE’s priority is undoubtedly providing for his children, yet their needs were disregarded in the rush to punish him. Shouldn’t their financial well-being have been a more central consideration in this situation?

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TheOtherJones

Plaid has a big problem connecting outside Y Fro to the required degree, I’m not seeing signs of that changing in time for 2026. Polling, although Plaid came out on top to end the year, is more a case of standing still whilst Labour and the Tories collapse. So not anything to get carried away with. Unfortunately, the current direction of travel is that Reform will do very well and Plaid will remain static. Anyone who was politically awake during the 2016-21 Senedd knows what an epic carcrash the UKIP Senedd Group was; perhaps that’s what it’s going to take to stop people turning for Reform, 5 years evidence of chaos and oddballs in the Senedd. Because there seems to be no strategy from the current parties on how to pop Reform’s bubble. They’ve got no prominent figures in Wales, no Welsh policy and haven’t really campaigned here in a meaningful way; yet they’re poised to come 2nd or 3rd! Plaid’s problem is that it’s seen as an establishment force in Wales, at a time when anti-establishment feeling is the highest it’s been in a very long time. As JE says, it feels make or break. I hope Rhun can find the winning formula. We’ll see.

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Why so coy? Spell out the actual policy platform that you'd have them adopt.

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