Plaid Cymru urges progressive voters to unite in Caerphilly to block Reform

Plaid Cymru has called on progressive voters across Caerphilly to rally behind its candidate Lindsay Whittle in next week’s Senedd by-election, after a new poll suggested Reform UK held a narrow lead.

The Survation poll for Camlas Public Affairs puts Reform on 42% of the vote, Plaid close behind on 38%, and Labour trailing badly on 12%.

If repeated at the ballot box, the result would represent a seismic shift in Welsh politics, overturning Labour’s century-long record of dominance in Caerphilly at both Westminster and Senedd level.

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'Stark'

Plaid Cymru MS Delyth Jewell said the poll proved only Plaid could stop Reform. “It is clearer now than ever that only Plaid Cymru can stop Reform in Caerphilly,” she said. “The choice is stark. The people of Caerphilly can choose either a progressive candidate who will always stand up for our communities in Lindsay Whittle, or a party that will never care for Caerphilly and offers no meaningful solutions.

“Those progressive voters who might have been thinking of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens must now give their backing to Plaid Cymru. If they do not, they risk allowing Farage’s man into the Senedd. In this two-horse race, I am pleading with you not to place your bets on a lost cause. Bet on hope and principle – vote for Plaid Cymru.”

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Generational divide

The poll suggests Reform’s surge is powered by older voters, with nearly half (49%) of over-55s backing the party.

Reform has also eaten away at Conservative support, with seven in ten 2021 Tory voters in Caerphilly now backing Nigel Farage’s party.

Plaid Cymru is leading among younger voters, with 50% of those aged 18–34 backing the party. Plaid is also attracting 31% of Labour’s 2021 voters and 19% of former Conservative supporters, underlining its broadening appeal.

Labour’s base has collapsed: only a third of its 2021 vote share has held, while most of the rest has fragmented between Reform and Plaid.

Decline

The findings underline the scale of decline for Labour and the Conservatives. Together, the two parties secured 63% of the vote in Caerphilly at the 2021 Senedd election. The new poll shows their combined support has now plunged to just 16%.

The by-election, triggered by the death of Labour MS Hefin David, will be one of the last held under Wales’s current electoral system before reforms take effect for the 2026 Senedd election.

Candidates in the Caerphilly by-election (23 October)

Steve Aicheler – Welsh Liberal Democrats

Anthony Stuart Cook – Gwlad

Gareth Hughes – Wales Green Party

Gareth John Potter – Welsh Conservative Party

Llŷr Tomos Powell – Reform UK

Roger Anthony Quilliam – UKIP

Richard Tunnicliffe – Welsh Labour

Lindsay Geoffrey Whittle – Plaid Cymru