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Plaid Cymru urges progressive voters to unite in Caerphilly to block Reform

By Mark Mansfield
Delyth Jewell

Plaid Cymru has called on progressive voters across Caerphilly to rally behind its candidate Lindsay Whittle in next week’s Senedd by-election, after a new poll suggested Reform UK held a narrow lead.

The Survation poll for Camlas Public Affairs puts Reform on 42% of the vote, Plaid close behind on 38%, and Labour trailing badly on 12%.

If repeated at the ballot box, the result would represent a seismic shift in Welsh politics, overturning Labour’s century-long record of dominance in Caerphilly at both Westminster and Senedd level.

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'Stark'

Plaid Cymru MS Delyth Jewell said the poll proved only Plaid could stop Reform. “It is clearer now than ever that only Plaid Cymru can stop Reform in Caerphilly,” she said. “The choice is stark. The people of Caerphilly can choose either a progressive candidate who will always stand up for our communities in Lindsay Whittle, or a party that will never care for Caerphilly and offers no meaningful solutions.

“Those progressive voters who might have been thinking of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens must now give their backing to Plaid Cymru. If they do not, they risk allowing Farage’s man into the Senedd. In this two-horse race, I am pleading with you not to place your bets on a lost cause. Bet on hope and principle – vote for Plaid Cymru.”

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Generational divide

The poll suggests Reform’s surge is powered by older voters, with nearly half (49%) of over-55s backing the party.

Reform has also eaten away at Conservative support, with seven in ten 2021 Tory voters in Caerphilly now backing Nigel Farage’s party.

Plaid Cymru is leading among younger voters, with 50% of those aged 18–34 backing the party. Plaid is also attracting 31% of Labour’s 2021 voters and 19% of former Conservative supporters, underlining its broadening appeal.

Labour’s base has collapsed: only a third of its 2021 vote share has held, while most of the rest has fragmented between Reform and Plaid.

Decline

The findings underline the scale of decline for Labour and the Conservatives. Together, the two parties secured 63% of the vote in Caerphilly at the 2021 Senedd election. The new poll shows their combined support has now plunged to just 16%.

The by-election, triggered by the death of Labour MS Hefin David, will be one of the last held under Wales’s current electoral system before reforms take effect for the 2026 Senedd election.

Candidates in the Caerphilly by-election (23 October)

Steve Aicheler – Welsh Liberal Democrats

Anthony Stuart Cook – Gwlad

Gareth Hughes – Wales Green Party

Gareth John Potter – Welsh Conservative Party

Llŷr Tomos Powell – Reform UK

Roger Anthony Quilliam – UKIP

Richard Tunnicliffe – Welsh Labour

Lindsay Geoffrey Whittle – Plaid Cymru

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34 comments

Jeff

Vote reform you are letting this in and saying goodbye to any future Wales has. https://bylinetimes.com/2025/10/17/what-nathan-did-next-a-kremlin-backed-forum-on-how-to-subvert-western-democracy/

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WilliamG

Very interesting article in the link, we should all be worried

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Steve Thomas

Anyone who thinks this through could only come to one conclusion- VOTE PLAID.

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Milo Scope

Are you a laugh?

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Milo Scope

There were some digital signage vans going round with something like 'vote Labour or get Reform' which is utterly delusional.

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Mike T

Agree in terms of stopping Reform but that should not be the only focus of this or any election. We've not see any ideas or vision in 25 years of devolution - we've plummeted down every single meaningful metric you can muster. This has to change, and very quickly. Plaid, Labour etc need to offer more - much more - than "At least we're not Reform."

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Jeff

What have reform got to offer? No one knows apart from farage brexit, farages love in with putin and trump, and farage dallying with dangerous money that want to stop green energy and anti abortion types. Brexit put the boot into the UK finaces and I do not think that with barnet ANY party will do a good job but it is not as bad as reform types try to make out. So, why is he talking to this mob? https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/29/nigel-farage-teams-up-with-extreme-anti-abortion-group-and-calls-for-debate-on-restricting-abortion-rights-in-uk/

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Peter J

This by election has had the least amount of policy debate I can ever think of

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Tucker

Show us your workings out and not just the lazy rhetoric of devolution is bad. Parts of England are doing far worse than Cymru, in education, health targets and council tax rises.

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James Edwards

And in terms of deprivation as well. The top 20 areas of child poverty in the Disunited Kingdom are all in England and Cymru doesn’t have anywhere near the crime epidemic that parts of England do. You have to do your own research to find these facts out though the Biased Broadcasting Company or Gbeebies won’t tell you that. Although any Welsh person who watches Gbeebies is quite frankly a bradwr anyway

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smae

You would think, but at practically every turn Westminster has prevented Wales from getting the money it needs to recover from the chaos wrought in the 1980s. Yes, Wales have been hamstrung so long it's been practically impossible to make any progress. You can't make progress without the necessary resources, it's why councils are failing left right and center and the Senedd is currently, until it gets parity tax and borrowing powers in line with Scotland, a glorified council. Council's are deliberately hamstrung as 'delivery arms' of the UK government, expected to deliver services rather than acting as small city states, it's why Birmingham council declared bankruptcy. At the moment, we're asking Wales to take on an increasingly overburdened NHS and Social Care system, while young/healthy people increasing move elsewhere for opportunities. We're unable to retain them because we don't have the resources to offer them. Education is very much in the same dire straits because it's funding has been stripped to provide budget for other services, then we wonder why Wales keeps slipping down the tables. Under the Tories, Wales had to beg for each payment and often its payments were delayed, even those that the Tories said Wales was entitled to. The only difference between the Tories and Tory-lite is that they make payments on time, they're still giving Wales real terms cuts by increasing payments slower than inflation.

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Badger

reform [noun] - make changes in (something, especially an institution or practice) in order to improve it. This is just another word for progress. How did UK politics get into a situation where a regressive party has hijacked progressivism to further their regressive aims. It's astonishing that London Labour isn't giving people the real reform they want.

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Mike T

So it's time for Welsh Labour, Plaid etc to step up...

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theoriginalmark

you make that sound like it's a problem with Devolution and not the government in charge at the Senedd, Labour have failed now we need a party that actually represents Wales not another English nationalist party, Wales has voted twice in favour of Devolution, if Farage thinks he can waltz in and remove that, both he and his followers will need to think again. Vote Plaid Cymru, the only party in Wales that backs Wales.

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Mike T

And what does Plaid offer, other than "We are not Reform."

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In reply to Mike T

smae

At this point, that's frankly all they need to prevent Wales falling into chaos. Reform will utterly destroy Wales. At it's worst, Plaid offers managed decline. You remember Truss right? That's how Reform want to do things, they want to destroy Wales, abolish the Senedd, reverse devolution and bring in insurance based American-style healthcare and if they got their way, we'd be in Russia's pockets subject to whatever whim Putin has. At least with Plaid they do actually care about Welsh culture and about whether Wales succeeds.

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smae

This is always how it works in a FPTP election. You stop the most worst guy, with the guy that's bad... but not 'that' bad. It's why the Senedd is trying to switch to preference voting.

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Mike T

Nah, you're just letting PC and / or Labour get away with not having any positive plans, notable achievements etc etc. Reform are, unfortunately, happy to fill that void. If all we have, after 25 years, is "We're not Reform" then that will play straight into their hands.

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In reply to Mike T

Theoriginalmark

And you seriously think voting in a full on English nationalist party in a country where they have no interest is the answer,

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In reply to Mike T

Badger

Reform are hardly offering "positive plans, notable achievements" unless you count Nigel's Brexit boats.

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In reply to Badger

Mike T

Not said that either. Merely saying that you have to attack them with positive messages. OK, there are no notable achievements in the last 25 years BUT there is a chance to outline a positive vision, new policies, full costings etc that could obliterate Reform. If all we have is "Stopping Reform" then that is not going to cut it.

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In reply to Mike T

Badger

In a two horse race between Labour and Plaid you'd be right. But when the race is between Plaid and Reform, not being the Abolish Wales party is enough.

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James

https://stopthetories.vote/senedd/caerphilly The facts point to voting plaid to stop reform.

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Rob

Problem is Labour are saying the same thing. They forget that come the next UK election in 2029 they may very well depend on tactical voting from other centre-left parties to stop Reform.

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Badger

Labour needs to cut its losses in Caerphilly because they seriously risk gifting it to Reform. They need to consider that Reform losing Caerphilly to the nationalists will be highly damaging to Reform's Westminster campaign and Farage's personal brand. They can formalise tactical voting arrangements next May that benefit all of the participants to kick Reform out of Wales.

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Rob

They won't, Wales is their 'back yard' and are to proud to they stand aside. I suspect Labour have a hidden agenda. Let Reform win in Wales so that they can demonstrate to the rest of the UK how poor they are at governance. It also undermines growing support for independence as further devolution under a Reform Welsh Government would be seen as 'empowering the far right.'

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Badger

@Adrian - presumably she means progressive in the sense of everyone who isn't a regressive trying to turn back the clock or simply destroy everything. So that'll include centrist and many centre right voters.

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Badger

There would be no need to assume anything with a preference voting system because Green, Dem, Plaid and moderatel Con voters would all put Labour as their second choice and Reform would get nowhere.

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Howie

You only need to look at the last GE in UK to see that tactical voting can come back to bite you hard. We now have one of the most authoritarian socialist govt ever. From curbing protest to attacks on individual freedoms to targeting the least well off in society. Plaid offers the opportunity to the people of Wales to mould their own future and should be voted for on the basis of that.

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hdavies15

authoritarian for sure but the socialism is a new variant and hardly resembles the movement that strove to bring people's quality of life up to a higher standard.

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Tucker

Labour are anywhere near being a socialist party anymore

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Badger

The UK electorate aren't demanding socialism. 2017 and 2019 should've made that clear. How about respecting voters instead of forcing your narrative on them and being surprised when they choose the other lot.

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Badger

Is that what you call a Putin-billionaire sandwich? One layer of what Putin wants (we keep buying his massive gas resource), one layer of self-inflicted security fears (Brexit started the boats), one layer of what billionaires want (less government stopping them exploiting people and taxing them for public services) and a final layer of moral panic?

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Replying to Mike T Cancel

I haven't said that. Have I?

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