Opinion
Why Welsh progressives must unite to stop Reform
Jack Meredith
Reform UK is on the march in Wales. Polling for the 2026 Senedd election suggests that the party could emerge as the largest single force, potentially eclipsing both the Conservatives and, in some scenarios, rivalling Labour and Plaid Cymru.
The prospect should alarm anyone who values devolution, social justice, and Wales’ tradition of progressive politics.
The rise of Reform is not inevitable. But it will only be stopped if the parties of the progressive tradition in Wales; Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats find ways to cooperate.
Reform thrives on simplicity. Their slogans about immigration, net zero and “common sense politics” are designed to tap into frustration and distrust.
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Devolution
They position themselves as the anti-establishment voice, despite offering policies that would hollow out public services, strip away hard-won rights, and potentially lead to a more unequal and less democratic Wales.
For Wales, the danger runs even deeper. Reform’s leadership has shown hostility towards devolution itself. A strong Reform group in the Senedd would not just drag the debate rightwards; it would directly threaten the gains Wales has made in shaping its own future.
We should not underestimate this risk. Across Europe, when populist right-wing parties have surged unchallenged, they have reshaped entire political landscapes; Wales is not immune.
The good news is Wales already has strong progressive traditions to counter this threat. Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats disagree on many things; independence, Europe, taxation.
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Split
But on the fundamentals, they share more than they admit:
- All three are committed to defending and deepening Welsh devolution.
- All three believe in properly funded public services, including the NHS and education.
- All three support tackling inequality and protecting vulnerable communities.
- All three reject the divisive rhetoric of Reform and the far-right.
There is a common thread here: a belief that Wales is stronger when it invests in fairness, community, and democracy. That thread is important, now more than ever.
Under the new closed-list PR system, the electoral map of Wales will change drastically in 2026.
Competition between progressives risks splitting the vote, handing Reform the
opportunity to dominate seats where their support is concentrated.
Values
Even if Reform does not secure a majority, a large bloc of Reform MSs would have an outsized influence, potentially dominating debates and undermining consensus on issues like climate change and equality, thereby steering the political discourse in a direction that is contrary to the values of most Welsh citizens.
Cooperation does not have to mean formal electoral pacts or mergers. It could be as simple as:
- A shared message that Reform is a danger to Wales' values.
- Coordinated campaigning on the cost of living, climate change, and NHS waiting
times.
- Avoiding unnecessary hostility between progressives, which only benefits Reform.
If Labour, Plaid and the Lib Dems spend the next year attacking each other more than they challenge Reform, they risk sleepwalking into a disaster.
Wales has been here before. In the 1997 referendum campaign, Labour, Plaid, Lib Dems, and even parts of the Conservatives came together in a broad "Yes" campaign coalition.
That fragile unity delivered the narrow victory that created the National Assembly in the first place.
Rhodri Morgan's "Clear Red Water" speech in 2002 was another moment where Welsh politics asserted its own identity against Westminster trends.
It showed that Wales could carve a distinct path, resisting the marketisation of public services embraced elsewhere.
Both moments teach us the same lesson: progressives win when they work together.
Action
The rise of Reform is a test of Wales' political maturity. Do we allow anger and division to fracture our politics, or do we unite around the values that have defined Welsh democracy for a generation?
Labour, Plaid and the Lib Dems will continue to disagree on individual policies. That is healthy for any democracy.
But there is no reason why they cannot come together on what matters most: defending devolution, tackling inequality, and standing against the far-right.
Reform thrives on division. Progressives must answer with cooperation. Failing to do so could see the future of Wales decided by Reform. The choice is stark, and the time to act is now.
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