Where is Welsh independence?

Evan Thomas

Wales has been through it recently. Three first ministers this year alone, multiple political scandals and a historic general election to top it off.

Throughout all the commotion, I’ve noticed a distinct gap in the Welsh political narrative regarding independence.

Where is it?

Far from being a crucial policy ground for contestation during the election, independence and structural reform assumed the passenger’s seat and became almost a by-product of other considerations.

This is not great news. If Welsh Labour’s mishaps and Reform’s insurgence were to continue, Wales could come out of the next Senedd elections in 2026, perhaps unintentionally, with significant representation from a party that are staunchly opposed to devolution.

Whatever your opinion on the matter may be, it is paramount that awareness of such complications is brought to the foreground of the public debate.

All forms of politics flow from the foundation of the structural makeup of our country, not the other way around.

A party’s position on this topic should be the starting point for us voters, not an accepted belief based on other premises, such as immigration or the economy.

So where has independence gone?

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Desirable?

According to Redfield and Wilton Strategies research, 55% of 18 to 24-year-olds, and 52% of 25 to 34-year-olds, would vote in favour of Welsh independence. Although these are the figures that don’t include respondents who “don’t know” what way they would vote in the situation, they do represent a major development for the current and future Welsh political landscape.

Independence does matter and will matter more in the coming years. The appetite is there, and yet there remains an untapped potential.

It is essential to bear in mind that these young people have witnessed 14 years of Tory government in Westminster, including embarrassing attempts at governance during and post-pandemic, as well as relatively ineffective Labour control in Wales, where child poverty levels have hovered stubbornly around the 30% mark since the introduction of devolution.

Injustices surrounding funding, as seen with the HS2 fiasco, higher Air Passenger Duty on Cardiff airport than its equivalent in Bristol and a decrease in the number of Welsh MPs in Parliament strongly suggest that the status quo does not work for the Welsh.

The question that then gathers momentum is whether independence is more desirable than what we currently have.

This is a question with an answer far longer than this piece can provide. But it is also a question that is unanswerable without the input of Wales as a whole.

The arguments and counterarguments of the people must be tested and drawn from all corners of our country if a democratically robust position is to be reached.

Discussion

Wales and its people are the priority in our politics, and independence must be included in this discussion so that we may understand every option that is available to us.

But where is independence in the national debate? Aside from YesCymru’s efforts and the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales’ final report, there is scarce material on the matter.

Having recently written a dissertation analysing the case for Welsh independence myself, I found few articles written in favour of such reform, and even fewer against the position. The debate is underdeveloped in the Welsh context; how can we to come to an informed standing?

In short, we must talk more. Welsh, British and global current affairs must be discussed through the lens of independence.

Basic ideas of desirability and feasibility, together with our state’s structural set-up, future policy directions and possible foreign affairs, must be debated for our own benefit.

We must write opinion pieces, conduct academic research and reflect on the matter with our friends and family. Dedicated forums for discussion must be opened, with new initiatives, events, meetings, think tanks and pressure groups created.

We cannot take our young Senedd for granted - it must be revised, defended and improved upon.

We must not stumble unknowingly into a future where devolution is dismantled, or independence is achieved without public debate.

Wales should not settle for less than what is best for her people, and therefore we must discuss her independence as a viable and serious alternative.

Evan is a recent LLB Law graduate from the LSE and incoming LLM Governance and Devolution student at Cardiff University.