Where does devolution end?

Oh look, a unionist. Yes it is true that Wales would be in a fiscal deficit, however, this isn't a problem of Wales' own making. This is a problem created by Westminster. It started from when Wales was first invaded and England's various attempts to wipe out Wales and its people. Then its repeated mugging over the years, from when the mines were forcibly shut, to the railway lines being decommissioned, to preventing it from getting opportunities, HS2, drowning villages to purely benefit England. There are people even saying that creating the Senedd was a mistake because it's not returning value for money, it's not properly investing. The truth is, it can't properly invest, it can't raise money because of all the restrictions Westminster places upon it. Furthermore, this current Labour government has zero interest in letting Wales manage its own affairs, with Westminster salami slicing away the powers it had devolved. See Pride in Place. Conclusion then, on the face of it, if we're just looking at the spreadsheet, the UK is fantastic for Wales, no questions asked... dig a little deeper and suddenly the UK is the ball and chain holding Wales back, preventing its development and creating a trap where it is fiscally dependent. In any other context, this would be considered "Financial & Coercive Abuse", a relationship where we would tell the partner to cut their loses and go to a Refuge, instead of being gaslighted every five seconds. To be clear, the more devolution the better, not everything in theory needs to be devolved, we can work together on defence. Absolutely I think we should have independent pensions and we should treat England like it treats any other foreign nation (anyone claiming a Welsh pension that doesn't live in Wales see their pension rate frozen). We absolutely need our own Social Security rates because Wales clearly has vastly different needs to those of England. There is no reason not to be able to set Tobacco, Fuel, Alcohol and what not duties independently. Half the time such things never even see England. the UK honestly only needs to be looking at Defence and International affairs. Domestic arrangements can be left to the constituent parts. It would be great for England to get its own devolved Assembly. The more devolution the better!

This is the sort pf debate we need. I don't happen to agree with Mr Hedges since he takes the status quo as a fixture, and things can be changed. Wales will have different priorities, different costs and different incomes and no desire to be aworld power. The fact that Iceland had a bad time 17 years ago doesn't mean we would make the same mess up. But we need to understand each other so good on you, Mr Hedges. And let's travel the same devolution road until our paths diverge.

This whole argument is based on a false premise garnered from a dodgy accounting exercise called GERW. We know it’s made up of mystery guestimates & arbitrary apportionment of costs. For instance an independent Cymru wouldn’t be paying £1.8 Billion in defence costs! That’s twice as much as Ireland! We wouldn’t be paying the 22% of our OAPs who are English! That’s around £1.8 Billion. Or the£2,.2 Billion we pay as interest on the Westminster debt! Or the £1.25Billion English retirees cost our NHS! Or their £1/2 Billion care costs. The list goes on & on. Stuff we just wouldn’t be paying in an independent Cymru. We don’t actually pay any of this of course! It’s all just made up fantasy figures used to perpetuate the silly Quisling feelings of Mike Hedges & his unionist ilk who choose to let 543 English MPs decide our fate of our 32 MPs & our nation! Gwarthus! Shame on you!

Mike Hedges does make some good points but his party, apart from setting up the Assembly in 1998, has been the most reluctant to make changes to the devolution settlement since. It was the Coalition government that gave us law making powers in 2011, approved by a referendum, and the Tories introduced tax raising powers that came in 2017 . UK Labour has resisted every change and Starmer’s actions in power, despite claiming to be a devolutionist, has resisted change.

You should read Prof John Doyle on this. His abstract: from his.brilliant paper. The figure of £13.5bn, frequently quoted as representing the UK government annual subvention to Wales, is a UK accounting exercise, and not a calculation of the fiscal gap that would exist in the early days of an independent Wales. The total includes central UK government costs allocated to Wales that would not be relevant to an Independent Wales. This article analyses the most significant elements of the calculation of this published deficit, utilizing the last figures before the impact of Covid 19 on public finances across Europe – pensions, UK national debt repayments, defence expenditure, other non-identified expenditure, and under-estimates of Wales’ share of UK tax revenues. It concludes that those elements of the current subvention that are likely to transfer to an independent Wales, would represent a deficit of approximately €2.6b, before any other changes to taxation, public expenditure or projected economic growth.

....and what about organisations Headquartered in England (where profits are declared) but where the 'Value Add' is conducted in Wales - the product then being transferred at a transfer price equating to the full cost of production in Wales ? Full profit declared in HQ (England) and none in Wales. These arguments put forward against independence with overly simplistic algorithms are truly annoying !!

You really need to first research how a country becomes independent in the first place.

Beth yw'r gair Cymraeg am 'lickspittle'? Mae'n rhaid i ni gael gwaredu cachgwn fel hwn,

Fair point - and one that those pro-independence never want to address (exemplified by the number of down ticks on your comment).

What do we want? Independence! When do we want it? Now!

The oracle of the Institute of Fiscal Studies has spoken, you can't have nice things.

Shame Labour is trying to turn May into a choice between Labour and independence when it's a choice between Plaid (who've taken independence off the table in their first Senedd term) and Reform. Would Labour actually prefer Reform in Wales?

Apart from the fact they didn't raise it. What would've had the Telegraph readers choking on their boiled eggs and soldiers is if the powers had been used to raise the higher rate to 42% and lower the additional rate to 42%, effectively abolishing it. That would've meant more tax raised from the wealthy at the same time as having the lowest taxes in the UK.

Guff.

Hedges is using RT Davies' language in a nakedly political attack on Plaid Cymru. The man is intellectual treacle, a Labour dinosaur. Democratic Statehood is Wales' birthright as a nation. Hedges and his ilk can be consigned to the dustbin of history. Cymru am byth!

Devolution will end where the people of Wales want it to end. Devolution continues to be reinvented because it continues in failing to deliver. When it does, it will settle down.

England also runs at a large fiscal deficit, even after allowing for our contributions towards improving that country's railway network, for example.

What the IFS does not consider is that when Wales is independent, all companies importing and exporting to and from Wales would need to register as a Welsh company for taxation purposes and also until we join the European customs union we England will be a foreign country for customs and taxation purposes so we will receive a lot more income than the IFS suggests. Immigration is certainly not a problem for Wales: so we will spend less there. As an independent country, we will still be in NATO, (until there is a seperate replacement defence network for Europe to which we will then join) and we are not the front-line for defence purposes. Our GDP will be smaller with only 3 million population. The UK has not been honest with the population on state pensions. They should have invested our contributions in a sovereign wealth fund(s), similar as the commercial funds do; and not spending it in substitute for general taxation. If we decide to live/work in another country we should be able to to transfer our DWP pensions as we do for workplace pensions. DWP pensions have therefore no transfer values, unlike private schemes, because the money has not invested by the UK government. The UK must be forced correct this.