Welsh independence and the Wales budget deficit myth

"Which means that Wales, with 4.8% of the UK population, is responsibles for 35% of the UK deficit." which would place any deficit closer to £2 billion but probably lower as most capital investment goes into Central and South Eastern England

I do agree. The finalsentences say it all. Our best guestimates in the end come down to our £75Bn economy which is by contemporary measures, underproductive as a direct consequence of UK economic policy ... just as tracts of England find in this inequal UK. As someone pointed out, if we taxed the same as France, spending in Wales would be covered. I used to write a lot about GERW when I was active on Twitter. It was me who pointed out that the "GERW deficit" was not in fact Wales' at all. It is the UK's notional estimated internal deficit on its spending WRT Wales. If indeed the UK runs a deficit in Wales its governments have only themselves to blame. We are locked into the UK economy which is the UK Govt's responsibility. If it has failed to develop our economy, why do we get the blame when we have precious little agency over it? That's gaslighting that is ... Mind you, if we want to win people over to being firmly in favour of Welsh Statehood, we'd better do something about Welsh Labour. They are dragging the Senedd down with them. Their incompetence and obvious nepotistic culture is a big put off for the Welsh electorate. Clapped out old party with wrong headed ideas about what Wales needs. Reform are going to do some damage when we get to 2026 and beyond. The more votes Plaid Cymru gets the better. We need to mount a defence of Cymru bois bach!

More please, Llew. Wales needs all the Annibendods and John Balls we can get, to fix the figures in peoples' minds. If Wales can be self-sufficient it completely shifts the mindset - from negative to positive. It looks like we may be self-sufficient or close to it. We need to know.

For independence to succeed we need honest, positive, strong and forceful AMs with balls to tackle Westminster and who are competent enough to fight for Cymru and the Cymry . Not 'yes men' who pander to Westminster and cower down when something we desperately need is refused and only in government to finance themselves. They must stop these outside developers coming here, profiteering on our resources and then legging it out of here across the border with their pockets full of cash and very often with Welsh government grants too. You couldn't make it up. We give them grant money for them to rob us!! It's not the 14th century any more. That's history. This is a modern world. This centuries-old dominance, supression and taking anything they want must stop. We need better education, apprenticeships in all trades. We need to invest in agriculture and grow more crops and not be almost fully dependent on other countries to feed us. How often do we see Welsh produce on sale in our markets and supermarkets? Make other countries dependent on us instead. We need to desperately man-up and take full control. We need to get off our arses and get on with it and stop looking for someone else to lead us by the hand. If we had been able to keep all the wealth produced out of coal, slate, gold, copper, water etc. we would almost certainly be one of the richest small countries in the northern hemisphere.

Prof Murphy's research in 2019 showed that GERS (Scotland) was established by John Major's team and the figures calculated in a skewered way to give the false impression of Scotland's reliance on English funding....The intention was to "kill" the Indepenence argument. Treasury documents back this research. The Doyle research shows that Westminster is just as devious when discussing Cymru. The fact that both the main London parties continue to use this suspect accounting method to keep Cymru quiet is a clear indication of which nation they really support.

It still gets down to the real world of politics which says Welsh independence is not on the political cards at Westminster and that won't change. I mean the majority of Welsh seats are Labour, to start with. The chance of PC getting all the seats is just nil - they only get votes in Welsh language strongholds and that doesn't allow PC any appeal into the majority of English speaking Wales. PC can't even be the Senned government . Even if PC somehow got all the Westminster seats the numbers involved are so small that Westminster would just ignore them. Which Westminster party would vote to destroy the UK? Neither. And Westminster holds all the cards. Given that a new Scottish independence referndum is not on the cards and that the SNP has imploded, then a Welsh one is even further away. Which makes this sort of opinion piece irrelevant.

Westminster decisions have many downsides for Wales, but like many others I am still to be convinced of the case for independence. We need a rigorous and honest debate about the fiscal costs and benefits and none of what I’ve seen yet persuades me.  Professor Doyle’s report is frequently quoted as showing that the fiscal deficit of an independent Wales would be smaller than often thought, and he makes some good points. But his heroic assumption that English workers would pay Welsh pensions illustrates how realism is too often sacrificed for fantasy.

Britain isn't a nation. It's a broader geographical and cultural entity. Nothing wrong with considering oneself Welsh and British ... just dont conflate "Britishness" with support for the UK. Your last sentence however ... I couldn't disagree more. Hardie, Lloyd-George and Churchill all knew that the UK was constitutionally dysfunctional and each advocated "Home Rule" at different times. Fast forward a century and that dysfunction has deepened, the economic gaps have grown and our politics have been utterly debased by a succession of shysters. Do you really want to nail your colours to that mast? Plaid Cymru stands for a replacement union. Imagine if you will, a British equivalent of the EU - a Confederal Union. Plaid stands for not just Welsh Democracy, but a broader British family of democracies on new and fair and functional terms. The Welsh Nation has a right to democratic statehood. No amount of misty eyed British jingoism can deny us our rightful democracy.

We need to correctly define the terminology here. We're Cymru (people of the same tribe) not 'Welsh' outsiders as the insult implies. 'British' comes from the indigenous Brythonic people, so excludes the English. Considering the ongoing backlash against historical imperialist colonisation, I'm actually relieved that Cymru has no place on the Union Jack that oversaw the invasion of so many other countries and the current BNP/Reform hatred that many English now have towards people of those countries.

England is more dependent on Wales than Wales England truth be told. It's just fact. The supply of Welsh Water is fine example. The likes of Liverpool, Birmingham , Manchester and those regions supplied by Severn Trent would collapse if the taps were turned off. I've often used this argument to Unionist who dared state Wales is too poor to survive on its own. I replied. If the United Kingdom is so great for Wales why then is Wales too poor to survive on its own seeing we have it so good. Shouldn't Wales be prosperous meaning we have the infrastructure to cope as an independent country? Surely you think I'm not implying that Whitehall is deliberately keeping us down to ensure little old Wales is incapable of running it's own affairs? No, surely they wouldn't do that? Ask yourself these question. How can landlocked nations of similar size & population to Wales survive on their own? And if Wales was a financial burden to England we would be cast adrift not kept like a little treasure to be used & abused. Could it be that we are vitally important? I think so. The truth of the matter is we have the resources & ability to be independent. It's all to do with confidence and how to cut your cloth accordingly. We would not act like a superpower as little Britain does. Spend billions on a Trident weapons system We could never use. Our natural resources could be used to financially benefit Wales not England. We could rejoin the EU, but if not, trade with the rest of the world as Wales not received the fiscal dregs as we do now where England is prioritised and Wales patronised. All I can say is this. Wake up Wales. Our future is in our own hands if we take that giant leap of faith. See, I'm a realist. Wales will take time to recover as any one or thing does after years of ill treatment & abuse. I'd rather Wales be free and temporarily poor as an independent country than being a prisoner permanently impoverished on the fringe of little Britain to be cherry picked & kicked by Whitehall and the English establishment.

The obvious answer is for an independent and respected body to complete what would appear to be the difficult and complex task of assessing our true financial position. This would enable the debate to move forward and for those on both sides to have an accurate reference point. It is time for the hard yards in the movement to greater independence.

All this nonsense urban myth about independence meaning isolation! Let's clear this up. It's like wading through treacle honestly! I feel like I'm debating with Mike Hedges again ... Plaid Cymru wants Democratic Statehood for Wales. Should Plaid Cymru in future receive that democratic mandate it would begin the process of negotiations to realise that end. In fact, in those circumstances, Plaid's policy is to seek constitutional reform and look to agree on a replacement for the moribund UK which would be a confederal union of Wales, Scotland and England. If, in the unlikely event that the UK govt of the day sought to frustrate this democratic mandate (assuming that this mandate is clear and obvious), seeking the support of the international community and going down the road of UDI would be a last resort ... one that the UK govt has no legal or political power to prevent. It could either then recognise Welsh Statehood or seek a military solution which would without a doubt cause them all kinds of international problems. So let's say the worst comes to the worst. Wales votes for Statehood. UK govt says no. Wales says tough banana's we're off. UK says "Fine but we're not going to trade with you any more - enjoy your isolation." Wales makes a phone call and says "Hello, EU ..." Isolation my backside. Urban myth all day long. Been doing the rounds for decades. Piff and nonsense.

The thing with Welsh independence is, majority of people in Wales don't want it! We don't want to see a border between England and Wales and having to change currency going getween England and Wales, how are people in the north going to use airports? They have to go through another country, through border check points. Much of Wales is agriculture, farming is an expensive business and according to most farmers who are not born with a silver spoon in their mouth, doesn't pay, and the only thing keeping small traditional Welsh farms alive are the grants, so the a welsh government will have to fund it as with other grants and services. Culturally as Welsh and as a Welsh speaker I am also British, the UK and Welsh government suck but overall, could be worse and quite happy the way things are, so are most of Welsh people..