Wales’ demographic time bomb is the biggest threat we face as a nation

Ond syt yw mynegi y barn hon ?

Sobering.What policy steps however are needed a)using existing devolved powers Eh planning, b)powers that might be crowbarred out of Westminster?

This is something we do need to be able to talk about more openly, because as you say the debate is shut down by accusations of ageism and racism and its none of those things. It as you say a fundamental economic issue for our economy and without an open debate we will never be able to have an impact on planning decisions and the like. If we were to divert funds away from things that are underfunded already like health, then people have to appreciate why and without a frank and open public debate we simply can't consider longer term options that might cause shory term priblems. A long term vision and investment strategy is needed, so that the younger generation can feel part of something and if we can also discourage or make things less appealing for unproductive people to move to Wales then that would reduce the strain on our limited resources. Discussing this issue openly is too much of a hot potatoe for politicians I imagine.

I think most people would agree that we are facing a potential demographic 'time bomb' (outside of the cities). I also don't disagree with most of the points you make. However, what you're looking at is a symptom of the problem rather then the problem itself. One of the famous mantras in the Clinton Administration in the US was: "it's the Economy, stupid". A successful economy is one of the key building blocks for a future independent Wales. It will also address many of the issues you raise relating to the brain drain, the housing market, the type of in-migration into the Country, our ability to have successful and effective public services, and the productivity problem. You recognise this in your comments about the brain drain. More generally, as someone who owns and manages a business, I'm often struck by the lack of understanding about how to create a successful economy. Over the years public policy here has oscillated between inward investment solutions and a number of public sector-led economic strategies and initiatives (including Objective 1 funding and its successor). Neither have produced long-term and sustainable improvement in the Welsh economy. Of course we need inward investment, but the only sustainable way forward for an economy is to encourage and support home grown business start-ups, some of which will go on to grow into much larger enterprises. We also need to support those growth businesses, encouraging them not to sell out to out-of-Wales buyers. This is a long-term process with no quick fixes. However, it's the only way forward. This process must be business centred and not an excuse for the creation of public sector quangos that have little idea of how to start, develop and grow a business. We need a pro-enterprise Welsh Government with pro-enterprise policies on planning rules, regulation, and corporate and business taxation (where there needs to be devolution of, for example, Corporation Tax). This doesn't, however, mean a limited regulation free-for-all. It needs to be supported by access to credit, including equity investment, through a Welsh banking and investment sector - which doesn't exist at present. The purpose of business is to create wealth through making a profit. This is achieved through adding value by using a blend of capital, skills and innovation - and by being willing to take calculated risks. This is what will lead to high growth and high productivity. Welsh Government policy needs to encourage and facilitate this approach. Sometimes we seem to spend all our time discussing how we should slice up the meagre economic cake and who should get a bite at each slice. When it comes to trying to increase the size of the cake, we often look to London with a sense of grievance - of being short-changed. And sometimes we are being short-changed! However, we also need to look at how we can grow the size of the cake ourselves. One of the key problems we have here in Wales is the lack of a pro-Wales, pro-enterprise political party of the centre and centre-right. Many of the solutions being put forward for the future direction of our Country come from the centre-left and left of the political spectrum and from people with no direct experience of the business environment. There's nothing wrong with that, of course. However, it does need to be balanced by views from the centre and centre-right. At the moment there is no pro-Wales, pro-independence voice to represent that point of view. All we have is the Conservative Party with its pro-Union and London focussed agenda.

You have absolutely no understanding of modern economics in Wales.

At last someone is willing to acknowledge the elephant in the room: i.e the real immigration problem that we face in Wales, especially the number of retirees settling here. I voted to stay in the EU last year but at the same time i wanted Brexit to happen because i believed that the external convulsions caused by leaving the EU would be accompanied by internal convulsions which could lead to the final end of the British Empire. I think this is being played out in front of us at present. I also believed that the (long postponed) debate about immigration into the UK as a whole could be propitious in turn for the Welsh National Movement. People's fears about immigration and the scale of immigration have been unfairly demonised by the metropolitan liberal elite but at long last it is now starting to be acknowledged that these fears are to do with identity and sense of place above all else. This is surely a golden opportunity for us in Wales. No longer can we be tagged as racists for raising our own migration concerns about our own cultural identity when this is an issue which is also exercising the minds and attention of our big neighbour. This article shows the way that this argument should be couched. Opposing unlimited migration into Wales is not racist and anti-English. It's about identity yes, but it is also to do with health, education and the economy; it is all interlinked. We need brave politicians who are willing to start our own Welsh conversation about migration. There are no easy answers to this problem but i would suggest that we don't have to wait for our politicians. We need to make sure that Yes Cymru groups for Independence sprout up in all parts of wales and start to become a real presence both locally and independently. At the simplest level, The very existence of an independence movement which is high profile and active can prove to be a disincentive for people who think they can retire to Wales for a nice, hassle-free life.

The situation in which we find ourselves today did not come about overnight, it's taken decades and can be traced back - like so much else - to the 1960s. The fundamental problem is the lack of a healthy and diversified economy in rural Wales, due to the refusal of both UK and 'Welsh' Governments to invest in the economy and to provide skills and training for local people. Appalling infrastructure is another issue. The only hope offered to rural areas for 50 years has been tourism, which provides business opportunities for wealthy outsiders, low paid seasonal employment for locals - and attracts retirees to the areas where they've taken their holidays. This is the 'success story' politicians want us to celebrate. As for the brain drain, this has been exacerbated since the introduction of devolution, but we are asked to accept that young people moving to Cardiff is better than them moving to London. Is it? I can see how it's better for Cardiff but I struggle to see any difference for the areas they've left behind. Worse, this brain drain to Cardiff is proof of the way devolution has benefited that city at the expense of the rest of Wales. Neglected infrastructure and Cardiff bias cannot be illustrated better than by how the 'Welsh' Government has dragged its feet on the Carmarthen-Aberystwyth railway line while preparing to spend billions (much of it borrowed) on the M4 relief road and the Cardiff Metro system. When you make the rural areas of Wales less viable for the indigenous population the last thing you want are deserted villages, this is where tourism and its inevitable corollary of immigration play their part. With areas where the language had been widely spoken, and Welsh sentiment strong, now anglicised. This does not happen by accident. Turning to housing, it's quite clear that outside of the south, and the north east, Wales has more than enough housing to serve the Welsh population for a generation at least - so why are we building more housing everywhere? Partly because of the dangerous influence of the Englandandwales Planning Inspectorate, which answers to the Department of Communities and Local Government in London. It is this agency that forces Local Development Plans on our councils, demanding houses for which everyone knows there will be very few local buyers. The danger from new housing built to be marketed over the border is obvious to us all, but there are more insidious forces at work. Social landlords, especially housing associations, like to portray themselves as the 'good guys' of the housing business, helping locals who can't afford to compete in the free market. The truth is that all housing associations build properties in numbers exceeding local demand for fear of having their funding cut or being swallowed up by a bigger rival. Which results in them having to find tenants, so they look over the border, for lucrative deals with probation agencies and English local authorities, which helps explain why substance abusers, problem families, and 'victims of domestic violence' turn up out of the blue in Welsh communities. Llanelli seems to be suffering quite badly in this regard. But many of those housed by Welsh housing associations are pensioners from over the border, and not just pensioners, but pensioners with 'issues', an even bigger burden on our NHS and other services. And not just the elderly, but those in younger age groups, with 'issues'. Yet what planning authority would dare turn down an application for special needs housing? Housing associations receive hundreds of millions of pounds in public funding, much of it wasted on tenants that should not be the responsibility of any Welsh social landlord. The third element in the housing market is of course the private landlords. Some are responsible, many are not, and it remains to be seen how effective the 'Welsh' Government's new legislation will be in policing the bad ones or putting them out of business. If you want an example of what unregulated and irresponsible private landlords can achieve, look no further than Rhyl. Or maybe the north coast in general, where drugs gangs from Merseyside and Manchester are today fighting turf wars and killing each other. Away from the coast, other communities suffer, Blaenau Ffestiniog among them. The problem here of course is that with the slate industry virtually gone, this, combined with decades of studied neglect, has resulted in cheap housing into which private landlords have decanted all manner of undesirables. The same thing is happening, for the same reasons, in the Heads of the Valleys area. Once housed in inadequate accommodation your undesirable from over the border qualifies for social housing. Aren't I a negative, moaning bastard? Why don't I have any suggestions? Well, I do. In April 2018 the 'Welsh' Government will have power over Land Transaction Tax, the replacement for Stamp Duty. If it had the balls, it could target over 55s moving to Wales for the first time and greatly reduce the numbers of retirees arriving here. 'Granny dumping' directly into Welsh retirement homes must also be tackled. In the social housing sector, legislation could be introduced to ensure that Welsh housing associations did what most people think they do now - build rented property for local people, by introducing a five-year local residency qualification. But as I said at the start, fundamental to it all is a healthy economy, especially in our rural areas, those areas that suffer worst from the influx of the elderly. Someone, somewhere, some decades ago decided to impoverish Wales in order to build up an argument against greater devolution and independence. Flooding Wales with retired people to burden our NHS and other services is an element of that strategy. This is perfectly understandable. What is disappointing is that successive administrations down Cardiff docks have played ball. So unless there's a radical change in Welsh political thinking, and a move away from the left, you'd better get used to zip wires, white flight, trampolines, good-lifers and geriatric ghettoes - because that is the future mapped out for our countryside and coasts - recreation and retirement areas for England.

I think if we use only experiences, gut feel and are simply expressing fears, then not only will this be construed as prejudiced and verging on the dark side of things, it might actually lead to us that way. We need to look at the real statistics in detail, not as a whole, because there are big differences between Blaenau Gwent and Ceredigion or the university towns, with very high percentages of young students, that make the population stats appear younger, but not necessarily economically productively younger. This is a complex issue and we need to identify where there are problems or issues and to address those. The planning system is in the spotlight yet again and when local councils are overruled by WG then that raises concerns and questions. My gut feeling is there is a real issue to be tackled here and I think if people come here to retire then substantial UK government money should follow them. This should happen in England as well - many parts of England have similar issues

Nonsense. These people pump billions into the Welsh economy. The flow of people out of Wales (and brain drain is a bit flattering to many of these people) has been going on for generation since industrial jobs started disappearing. It has also been a huge ambition of parents to get their children to better jobs in England than stay in economically backwards Wales. This is yet another Welsh Government apologist article. Wales is making a botch of devolution so let's now blame the English in Wales.

Billions pumped in by retirees! I think not!! This is not an apologist article but an analysis of the actual facts. I live in a small market town and see the effects every day. Our young people cannot afford to purchase houses and rents are inflated. Jobs are in the "service" industry and a few weeks ago, I was the only Welsh person in a crowded surgery.There are also many second homes here and the owners arrive with their Waitrose stock.As the writer makes clear , the English buyers naturally look after their own interests.Well they would , would n't they?!!

Mike Smith says "these people pump billions into the Welsh economy", and unfortunately fails to say who is pumping what to where. The article shows that Welsh expenditure, which adds to the so called "Welsh deficit", is increased by Billions by funds allocated to retirees from England. In addition many others with social problems are relocated to Wales from over the border. These are people with drug problems, ex offenders and others designated as vulnerable people. The prime example which represents the effects of this relocation is Rhyl where crime rates and unemployment are astronomical. A crime rate of almost 500 per 1000 people and unemployment at 67% of the working age population The expenditure from the Welsh budget for this problem can amount to £1billion taking account of benefit payments, social services costs, and housing from housing associations which receive funding from the Welsh government. We are required to add to our expenditure £1.7billion for defence. If Wales were independent and based our defence expenditure pro rata with that of the Irish republic it would be £0.5billion a saving of £1.2billion. In addition we pay central government (London) capital consumption another £1billion. An independent Wales would not pay this to London. On the revenue side we export water for free to England,band the recipients sell it on for £0.5billion. On Welsh infrastructure and network rail been devolved, Wales would now be set to receive full Barnett consequential from England-only rail projects, H2S alone is set to cost £100billion. A full consequential from that would mean £5billion for Wales. Where is it? I fail to see where Mike Smith detects this "pumping". Indeed the government in London has given the DUP in Northern Ireland an approximate sum of £1billion. You may well ask where the money came from, and it is no coincidence that in 2016-17 the budget in Wales from London under Barnett had seen a fall of £1billion.