Trump’s comeback and its implications for Wales: A wake-up call before the 2026 Senedd elections

Franck Banza

Donald Trump’s dramatic return to the White House in a historic landslide victory against Kamala Harris has sparked discussions far beyond American borders.

With his successful appeal to a wide range of disillusioned and often disenfranchised voters, Trump’s comeback serves as a powerful signal for political dynamics worldwide, including in Wales.

His return to power underscores a global trend: a rising scepticism toward established political structures, and a growing appetite for parties that position themselves as champions of the "forgotten" people.

In Wales, the Reform Party stands as a stark example of this shift, gathering momentum and threatening to disrupt the political landscape at the Senedd elections in 2026.

This historic return to the White House demonstrates the growing popularity of populist figures who tap into the public’s frustrations and respond to real concerns—concerns that, too often, mainstream parties dismiss or stigmatise.

In both the United States and the UK, voices like Trump’s or Nigel Farage’s are routinely labelled as “racist,” “xenophobic,” “bigoted,” or even “fascist.”

However, these labels often backfire, increasing support for these leaders instead of diminishing it.

The response to these names isn't limited to white or traditional conservative demographics; a significant number of minority voters—including Latinos, Arab-Americans, and even first- and second-generation immigrants—have shown support for populist stances on issues like illegal immigration and economic security.

This trend demonstrates that the concerns of working-class and middle-income citizens, regardless of ethnicity, are resonating across the board.

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Alarm

In Wales, this pattern should sound an alarm. Recent polling and Brexit support suggest that frustration with political elites and distrust in existing systems is far from an isolated phenomenon. Many Welsh voters, including immigrants and people from culturally and ethnically diverse backgrounds, have expressed growing discontent with the way traditional political parties address—or fail to address—sensitive issues like illegal immigration, economic disparity, and rural hardship.

Welsh voters increasingly want pragmatic debates and solutions rather than divisive rhetoric or dismissive name-calling.

Ignoring these concerns, or refusing to address them through open and respectful debate, risks not only alienating voters but also undermining faith in the democratic process itself.

With Wales on the brink of a significant election in less than two years, Trump’s victory could be an indication of things to come.

The success of the Reform Party—a group that promises to shake up the political status quo by appealing directly to rural communities and average working people—is a phenomenon that mirrors Trump’s appeal in the U.S.

Their campaign, like Trump’s, is fuelled by frustration with career politicians and the increasing disconnect between the political elite and everyday people.

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Trust

The recent changes in the Welsh electoral system, which has introduced a new party-list voting system that emphasises party over candidate, have only deepened these frustrations, weakening voters' trust and making Reform’s outsider appeal stronger.

In recent years, we’ve seen political shifts that many find surprising, but in reality, they shouldn’t be.

Donald Trump’s re-election, the initial shock of Brexit, and the rise of parties like Reform in the UK all point to a recurring theme: people feel unheard on issues like immigration, the economy, and cost of living.

But instead of confronting these concerns head-on, too often we label them as fringe or extreme, shutting down discussion with name-calling rather than genuine debate.

Trump’s return to power, after a campaign focused heavily on controlling inflation and immigration, illustrates how deeply these issues resonate with voters.

Similarly, Reform’s popularity in recent UK elections and the party’s projected success in the upcoming Senedd election reveal a common thread: many citizens are frustrated with the lack of solutions from traditional parties and are willing to back alternatives that promise direct action.

Challenges

In Wales, we face a unique set of challenges—lost jobs, especially in industries like steel, and cuts in university funding, all set against the backdrop of a tough new budget from Labour that increases taxes on employers.

People feel the strain of rising costs and the fear of future layoffs, yet instead of addressing these fears directly, political leaders often dismiss them as reactionary or out of touch.

For many voters, the pressing issues around immigration, job security, and economic stability are not about racism or isolationism. They’re about survival, stability, and the promise of a better future.

If we don’t start treating these concerns as legitimate and pressing, rather than extreme, we risk further alienating large swaths of the electorate, paving the way for parties like Reform to make unexpected gains.

The upcoming Senedd election in 2026 could see a substantial shift if the mainstream parties fail to listen.

Welsh voters want job creation, especially in rural areas, support for innovation, and policies that empower our talented young people to take risks, start businesses, and learn from their efforts.

This new electoral system replaces the mixed First Past the Post (FPTP) and proportional representation (PR) system with a party-list-only system.

This shift means that voters will no longer select individual candidates but will instead vote for parties, which then allocate seats based on predetermined lists of candidates.

While the government argues that this will create a more proportionate and representative Senedd, critics contend that it undermines voters’ ability to choose specific representatives, leading to concerns about decreased political accountability.

Party loyalty

Professor Laura McAllister, a public policy expert, warns that this “closed list” system may erode trust in the electoral process. She notes that the new system risks rewarding party loyalty over candidate competence, creating a scenario where unqualified or unpopular individuals are prioritised simply because they align with party interests.

This approach could distance voters from their representatives, furthering public frustration with a political landscape that increasingly appears insular and unresponsive to local needs.

Therefore, Trump’s return to the White House should be seen as a wake-up call for Welsh politicians.

His victory showcases the impact of widespread disillusionment with traditional political elites and provides a clear parallel to the dynamics unfolding in Wales.

If Welsh politicians do not address the crises affecting the cost of living, loss of jobs, rural communities, restore trust in the political system, and engage with voters’ genuine concerns, they may find themselves ousted by a Reform Party that promises to do just that.

Yet, this political shift is also a golden opportunity for other parties like the Welsh Liberal Democrats to step in with a distinctive, progressive message that answers voters’ frustrations while steering clear of divisive tactics.

By focusing on real issues—economic empowerment, job creation, more devolved powers to Wales, immigration, comprehensive agricultural support, and responsible political reform—the Liberal Democrats could present themselves as the genuine alternative to both the establishment and the populist rise.

They could frame their policies around creating a more prosperous, inclusive Wales where liberal values of fairness, individual rights, and economic growth take centre stage.

Liberal principles

By championing changes that prioritise transparency, economic innovation, and community-based policy-making, the Liberal Democrats have the chance to offer voters a vision of Welsh prosperity grounded in liberal principles.

This strategy could allow them to capture the momentum of change, showing that liberal ideas can make Wales both prosperous and resilient in an increasingly polarised political climate.

As Wales approaches the 2026 Senedd election, the country stands at a crossroads. Politicians have a choice: either continue down a path that risks alienating a significant portion of the electorate or commit to meaningful changes that address the needs of Welsh citizens.

Let’s stop the cycle of surprise and regret. Let’s start engaging with people’s real concerns, whether about immigration, cost of living, or economic opportunity.

Name-calling and shutting down debate has never worked—and if it continues, we may find ourselves yet again facing an “unexpected” result in 2026. Instead, let’s commit to productive conversations that go beyond party lines and lead to real solutions.

Only then can we prevent history from repeating itself once more.

Franck Banza stood for the Lid Dems in Gower in the 2024 General election.