To abolish or not to abolish? That is the question

Ethan Jones

There is increasing noise in the media calling for the end of Welsh Devolution. The abolition of the Senedd and the return of all its responsibilities to Westminster.

In short, everything that the Senedd is responsible for will be returned to Westminster and Wales will cease to exist in any political reality.

Cutting straight to the heart of the argument. Do you think Wales is a country or do you think Wales should be a region of England?

That is ultimately what is at stake here. If devolution ends, Wales will have no control of policy areas and will cease to exist in any political sense.

Support for abolition has dropped from 50% at its inception to regularly between 25-30% today. So in the near quarter century of Welsh devolution’s existence, its opponents have almost halved.

Why then is it being given such airtime?

[mid-content-banner]

Identity-crisis

The internal identity-crisis facing the Conservative Party is the short answer. The noise is coming from within the Welsh Conservatives, with a faction wanting the party membership to adopt the position of abolition.

Support amongst the party’s MS’ is low, which highlights what a terrible idea it would be; even Andrew RT Davies has dismissed it.

However, the new Tory leader is on record as supporting the end of devolution across the UK. Kemi Badenoch has previously stated that devolution “should be rolled back.”

Wales seems poised to become the testing ground for the latest thing the Tories want to abolish.

[lower-mid-content-banner]

Unserious

The Conservatives in Wales are a deeply unserious party, which offers little in terms of an alternative direction for our nation. This stems from its top representative in Wales.

A fish rots from the head down.

Do they want to be a real alternative for the people of Wales? Or a party of ageing reactionaries that, rather than seeking to improve, seek to abolish every external institution going? Whether that be the EU, the ECHR or the Senedd.

Is that what the Tories are now reduced to?

In Wales, a hard-core fringe on the far right has carried the torch on abolition.

To put it in perspective, it has always been from parties further right than UKIP and its successors.

It still is, officially, with Nigel Farage having stated that the issue of devolution is settled. This is not to label all voters who support abolish as “far right,” merely to highlight that this is the position on the political spectrum that the parties who advocate it have been located.

In the run up to the 2021 Senedd Election, Abolish (Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party) were scandalously given a platform with the major parties in debates and interviews.

Abolish had zero elected representatives at any level at this time; their only representatives having defected after being elected under another party’s banner.

The party’s leader went on to perform terribly on this platform and was challenged over comments made about the Welsh language during one such televised debate.

Abolish went from being projected to win several seats by all pollsters to being firmly rejected with 4% of the vote and failed to win a single seat on the Proportional Representation lists. They’ve barely been heard from since. 96% of voters in 2021 did not want Abolish.

Winning strategy

Why then does a faction of Tories think this is going to be an election winning strategy?

An intense dislike of the Labour Party seems to be one of the absolute key drivers here.

A conversation with any supporter of abolition will inevitably come down to objections to Welsh Government policy, either actual or perceived.

Most voters in Wales don’t vote Labour, so the agency to change the Welsh Government is there.

The planned Senedd expansion will likely ensure it is incredibly difficult for Labour to outright win a majority in the foreseeable future.

Ironically, despite being vociferously opposed by abolitionists, it will likely see them given more of a platform and opportunity to shape things.

Statehood

For me, a dislike of the Labour Party is not a valid reason to advocate abolishing what little statehood Wales has. Seek to change the Senedd rather than, politically speaking, burn it down.

To some it is the belief that the Senedd poses a threat to the unity of the UK.

Support for independence is currently around the same as abolition. However, the key difference here is that support for independence has rocketed over the period of devolution, whilst abolition has severely decreased.

The demographic trends imply that support for abolition will fall significantly as the older generations shuffle off this mortal coil, whilst the younger generations lean more towards independence.

Take independence out of it for a second though, support for more devolution or to retain the status quo has a pretty unassailable super majority. It therefore seems to be a barmy hill for a faction of Conservatives to choose to make a stand on.

Even Nigel Farage and Andrew RT Davies have dismissed this idea as being a bit daft.

Referendum

However, I can see it from a British Nationalist view point. It is the fear that if the Senedd gained the same powers as Scotland there is a chance Wales too could build to having undeniable justification to hold a referendum. If you don’t view Wales as a “real” country, why should it have its own parliament? “We’re all British, we’re all one country with shared history” and all that.

I understand it and I don’t deny anybody the right to make their case for what they believe in.

I just happen to disagree with them and think abolishing ourselves as a country would be an epically disastrous situation to put ourselves in.

Anyone who thinks Wales is a country should oppose abolition as fully as they can.

A country with responsibilities, whether that be in the UK or not, or a county of England.

What would you prefer Wales to be?