Opinion
The Welsh Conservatives need to embrace their Welshness, or face another wipeout
Lewis Norton
If the 2024 General Election results in Wales tell us anything, it’s that the Welsh
Conservatives are in a lot of trouble.
In Wales, the Conservatives not only lost all the seats they held, they were beaten handsomely in nearly all of them. In only four seats were they within 5% of the winning party, while the party saw large majorities overturned in areas like Monmouthshire, and Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr; the latter of which had never returned a Labour MP in its long history as the constituency of Montgomeryshire.
While the election results have made sombre reading for Conservatives in Wales for the last few weeks, an even more sobering reality is the prospects for the 2026 Senedd election.
The Welsh Conservatives are being encircled from various angles: their poor UK General Election performance, the continuing emergence of Reform UK, and the electoral reforms to the Senedd for 2026, just to name a few.
With the many factors going against the party, how then, can they brave the tide and come out the other end?
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A Distinct Identity
The problems for the Welsh Conservatives in the recent general election lay largely within the performance of the UK Parliamentary Party during its time in government.
Whether it has been through scandals or policy miscalculations; the UK-wide party has hardly done the Welsh party any favours.
On the other hand, the Welsh electorate soundly rejected the few distinct policies that the Welsh Conservatives proposed; which controversially included the removal of the 20mph speed limit policy in Wales by Westminster, perceived by many as an attack on Welsh devolution.
The relationship of the Welsh Conservatives with devolution for the large part of its existence can be summarised as a begrudging one; the party has accepted devolution and have presided over increases in devolved powers in the UK party’s 14 years in government, but often conveys the image of a party not eager about the process of devolution.
It is clear that this pattern of unenthusiastically tagging along the devolution process will not bear fruit for the Welsh Conservatives.
Now more than ever the party needs to find within them their Welsh identity and communicate that to the electorate.
At the very least, the Welsh Conservatives need to carve themselves an identity distinct from the UK party.
Differences in opinion
Much has been said within the Senedd about Welsh Labour and their relationship with UK Labour in the debate surrounding further devolved powers, but the differences in opinion between the UK and Welsh Conservative parties are much harder to distinguish, and as such the parties can come to be seen as one and the same.
The Welsh Conservatives need to grapple with the problem that many in Wales are not familiar with the Welsh party, and those that are do not believe the party to be one that has Wales’ best interests at heart.
According to a recent YouGov poll, 40% of Welsh people do not know how good or bad of a job Andrew RT Davies is doing as Welsh Conservative leader (just 1% shy of the 41% who believe him to be doing a bad job), and only 37% believe him to care about Wales, compared to 53% for Vaughan Gething.
What would help with this? Well, some enthusiastically Welsh policies and distinctions from the UK party might prove a start.
The now-ousted former Welsh Secretary, David TC Davies, previously advocated for collaboration with Plaid Cymru to combat Welsh Labour dominance. There is clearly room in the party for more enthusiasm about devolution and Welsh issues, it just needs to be utilised.
The Reform Problem
Some may ask, why not go the other way? If the party needs to be distinguishable, why not double down on scepticism of devolution.
Quite simply, it is electorally untenable for various reasons.
Putting aside the two referendums which make opposition by a major party difficult, and the electoral underperformance of parties openly hostile to devolution; namely the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party and UKIP; the biggest reason why the Welsh Conservatives cannot become more devolution-averse in 2024 is the emergence of Reform UK.
Its rise was perhaps most striking in Wales, where they marginally missed out on becoming the second largest party by vote share despite not gaining a single seat.
Reform beat the Conservatives in 17 of the 31 seats in which they stood in Wales, and if these results were replicated in the 2026 Senedd election, or worsened by a more proportional system where the need for tactical voting will disappear, it would spell disaster for the Conservatives.
While Reform UK did not go into the UK General Election with any policy regarding devolution, considering its history as the Brexit Party and crossovers with the 2016-21 UKIP cohort, it is likely that it will adopt some policy averse to devolution.
Whether this policy is closer to abolition or scaling back is yet to be seen, but regardless it is almost
certain that the Welsh Conservatives will be outflanked by Reform on aversion to devolution.
The threat of Reform needs to be what pushes the Welsh Conservatives to become more enthusiastic about devolution and their ‘Welshness’.
While ultimately the party will seek to balance this with their sense of British identity, the need to reinvent the party has never been clearer.
Lewis is a recent BA Politics graduate from the University of York and incoming MA Welsh Government and Politics student at Cardiff University
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