The two faces of the Labour Party in Wales

Martin Shipton

Since the recent council elections in England, where the Conservatives lost more than 1,000 seats and both Labour and the Liberal Democrats made significant gains, even the usually most cautious of Labour politicians believe it’s a racing certainty that Sir Keir Starmer will be a resident of Downing Street by the end of next year.

One such politician I spoke to wasn’t sure Labour would win a majority, but was confident that, if it didn’t, a coalition deal could be struck with the Lib Dems.

In the run-up to the general election, most likely to be held in Autumn 2024, it's therefore appropriate that there should be some focus on the relationship between UK Labour and Welsh Labour.

Strictly speaking, there’s no legal distinction between the two. Welsh Labour isn’t a discrete party in its own right and isn’t registered as such with the Electoral Commission.

It’s a nationalist-lite brand cleverly devised by Rhodri Morgan to appeal to patriotic Welsh voters who don’t want to sign up to the whole-hog independence agenda pursued by Plaid Cymru.

It became more than just a brand when Morgan pursued “clear red water” policies that distinguished his government’s more public sector approach than that of Tony Blair in England.

With a Tory government in power at Westminster since 2010, Welsh Labour adopted the slogan “Standing up for Wales” and opposed - in principle at least - austerity public spending cuts.

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Power grabs

Since the Brexit referendum in 2016, another locus of conflict has come to the fore, with the Welsh Labour government complaining of “power grabs” by Westminster and a reduction in regional aid allocations in comparison to what Wales could have expected if the UK had remained in the EU.

Welsh Ministers have complained bitterly about the treatment of Wales by the UK Government and deplored the Conservatives’ refusal to countenance any further devolution of powers.

But with the strong likelihood of UK Labour winning the next general election, will Welsh Labour get what it wants?

We were shown an ominous trailer of what may be in store on ITV Wales’ Sharp End programme late last year.

Asked about recommendations from the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales that powers over criminal justice and policing should be devolved to the Welsh Government - policies backed by Welsh Labour - Swansea East Labour MP Carolyn Harris was doubtful.

She said: “I wouldn’t be very enthusic [sic] to devolve policing.”

Asked why not, she replied: “I just wouldn’t.”

When presenter Rob Osborne said: “Your colleagues in Cardiff Bay…”, Ms Harris interrupted to say: “Well, I’m not in Cardiff Bay.”

Asked whether she was in tune with what the Welsh Government’s doing and whether she supports what the Welsh Government does, she said: “Of course I do. But there are some things I would like to stay in Westminster, policing being one of them.”

Ms Harris, of course, is not just a backbench Labour MP - she is the deputy leader of Welsh Labour and was one of the main organisers of Sir Keir Starmer’s successful leadership campaign.

The fact that she is out of step with the Welsh Government on the scope of future devolution suggests that the latter can expect resistance to its aspirations from a future UK Government.

Lean pickings

More substantial evidence emerged when last December UK Labour released the long-awaited report it commissioned from Gordon Brown on the constitutional future of the UK.

For Wales there were lean pickings, with a proposal to devolve youth justice and the probation service, but nothing about adult justice or policing.

First Minister Mark Drakeford put a brave face on, saying it would be great to get youth justice and probation devolved during the first term of a UK Labour Government.

In truth, though, the Brown recommendations were underwhelming - and especially so from a Welsh perspective.

Carolyn Harris’ reaction to the more radical proposals put forward by the independent commission chaired by Professor Laura McAllister and Dr Rowan Williams, the former Archbishop of Canterbury, are likely to have betrayed the attitude of many MPs - that some things should remain at Westminster so they have something to do.

In the early years of devolution there was tension between the Assembly Labour group and some Welsh Labour MPs who were concerned about their diminishing role because of powers being ceded to the new institution in Cardiff Bay.

That has appeared to reduce over the years, but Ms Harris’ comments on Sharp End show that such attitudes persist.

There are other factors which suggest that the Welsh Government and a future UK Labour government will have wider disagreements.

The NHS in Wales is devolved and the Welsh Government has remained resolutely opposed to any moves that would see the private sector play a role in delivering health services.

UK Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting, on the other hand, is a convert to the idea that private companies should be at the heart of the NHS, delivering services as contractors.

Such a route involving the private sector will not be followed in Wales, opening up a new phase of the “clear red water” divergence.

Brexit

And then, of course, there is Brexit, with Keir Starmer not only rejecting any moves to rejoin the EU but also to re-enter the European single market and customs union - a state of affairs that is causing serious damage to the Welsh and wider UK economy.

Many Labour MSs believe that Starmer’s position is untenable and will hamper economic recovery, providing scope for disillusionment with a Westminster administration led by him.

On the issue of regional aid, Starmer has confirmed that the Welsh Government will be involved in the allocation of funds - currently it has no such role - but has not guaranteed that Wales will get the same level of funding as it would have got if the UK was still a UK member state.

UK Labour appears to want to stroll to victory on the back of the Tories’ considerable shortcomings, while giving as little away as possible about its future intentions.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens has been reluctant to answer awkward questions that touch on the gap between Welsh Labour’s aspirations and what a Starmer-led government will be prepared to concede. This is unacceptable in a mature democracy and there needs to be more candour as the general election gets closer.

Another factor to be borne in mind is where the loyalty of Labour staff members in Wales lie. As is usually the case, it’s a question of following the money.

Those who work for MSs are paid out of public funds and are generally loyal primarily to their MS, to the Senedd Labour group and to the Welsh Government. Naturally they want to see a Labour government elected at Westminster.

The salaries of those employed at Welsh Labour’s Transport House headquarters in Cardiff are paid not out of money raised and held by Welsh Labour, but out of UK Labour’s central funds.

Some MSs have doubts about the staff based at Transport House because their primary loyalty is seen as to UK Labour rather than to Welsh Labour. Such doubts are likely to remain until Welsh Labour is a properly autonomous party able to support itself financially.