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Opinion

The strange death of Welsh nationalism

By Mark Mansfield
Marchers in Bangor at the weekend.

Chris Carter

Welsh nationalism is far from dead. The street movement is stronger than ever, 10,000 people rallied in support of Welsh independence in Bangor this weekend. However, the Welsh nationalist movement's only political party, Plaid Cymru, is in dire straits.

The party is falling further and further behind in opinion polls following the embarrassing resignation of Adam Price in May this year, after a series of failures to deal with a “culture of sexual harassment” within the party, led to a damning report and Price’s resignation.

For the uninitiated, Plaid Cymru have been Wales only electorally successful pro-independence party in the nation's history and is facing not only more humiliating defeats, but seeing its influence over Welsh politics weaken by the day. In order to find out what went wrong, it pays to start at the beginning.

Historic Success

The late 90’s were a great time to be a Welsh nationalist. In 1997, the referendum on devolution was secured by the slenderest of margins. Plaid then triumphed in the 1999 Welsh Assembly elections, capitalising on the post-referendum national sentiment and a bitterly divided Labour Party.

Everything appeared to be going Plaid Cymru’s way, having successfully taken heartland Labour seats, Islwyn and Rhondda, unexpectedly opting for Plaid for the first time, and becoming the main party of opposition in the first Parliament.

Three decades after winning their first parliamentary seat, the party of independence was at long last the primary antagonist to Labour’s position in Wales and now chief challenger in former coalfield strongholds at the dawn of the 21st Century.

All seemed to be blowing Plaid’s way at the foundation of Wales first parliament since the Glyndŵr uprising six hundred years prior.

The Fall

So why, nearly 25 years later, is today’s Plaid in freefall?

In 2023, Plaid Cymru finds itself embattled on all fronts. Not only have they recently lost a well recognised leader, political problems continue to mount.

Their main political challengers, the Labour Party, are the most popular they have been in a generation. Boundary changes for MPs being sent to Westminster have reduced Wales representation from 40 MPs to 32. It leaves Plaid with just two safe Westminster seats, Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion, down from four.

Welsh General Election Results, 2019

The changes have forced the party on the defensive against staunch challenges in heartland Carmarthenshire, where they hold a narrow majority, while Arfon is lost to boundary changes. Ynys Mon, while currently having a Conservative MP, is their only other likely gain going into any general election, where they are in close third.

Outside of this handful of Westminster seats, one is hard pressed to find anywhere the party can expand its outlook.

Plaid’s cousins in Scotland, the SNP, by contrast had middling success in the 2010 general election. This being the election the year before they swept to power in the Scottish Parliament and held a referendum on independence, despite only winning 6 seats out of 59, were second in 28 seats.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru are second in no Westminster seats. Let us not forget, 2019 was one of Labour’s worst results since 1935, surely an opportune moment for an insurgent centre-left (albeit nationalist) party in Wales to take advantage? And if not then… when?

The Party of the Welsh Language

It's evident that Plaid Cymru's influence is largely confined to Welsh-speaking areas. This is a country where the mother tongue is not spoken by 75% of the population according to the 2021 Census. It leaves slim pickings for hopes of parliamentary success in Westminster and more worryingly, the Welsh Parliament, where things do not look great either.

Welsh-speaking population in Wales according to the 2021 census

A Loveless Marriage in Cardiff

At the Senedd, Plaid languish in third place behind the Conservatives. Repeatedly forced to support, rather than lead, Labour administrations at the Senedd through either formal coalition like in 2007 or entering into confidence-and-supply style arrangements with the current 2021 co-operation agreement.

Therein also lies the problem for nationalist politicians: it is nearly impossible to displace Welsh Labour from its heartlands. In particular vote-rich Valleys and South of Wales have persistently sent Labour representatives to county halls, Cardiff Bay and Westminster.

Plaid Cymru know in order to achieve the dream of independence they need to win populous areas in South Wales, especially the cities of Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, not to mention multiple valleys to secure a referendum over Wales future. Areas they hold virtually no representation in.

Welsh Labour have also taken time to learn the lessons their Scottish sister party had to learn the hard way when they were almost wiped out north of the border. They have their own playbook for keeping Plaid Cymru at bay and despite public disputes over issues like free school meals, they ultimately need one and other to govern at the Bay.

By hugging Plaid close, Labour continue to prevent the differentiation the SNP managed before their breakout election in 2011 that nearly ended the 300 year union.

More anecdotally when researching this piece, a defector to Plaid Cymru from Labour admitted to me that they are much more disorganised than Labour when it comes to being an effective campaigning machine. Some things public polling and election data cannot explain. One being that sometimes you need to be able to organise an army of door knocking volunteers, or at least a few highly dedicated ones, in order to win.

Green Shoots?

This is where three beams of light shine through. The first being that Plaid have a fair spread of local Councillors engaging in pavement politics. At Council level, they run four Welsh Councils in Welsh speaking heartlands and are the main party of opposition on the more anglophone Caerphilly and Rhondda Cynon Taf Councils, with representation on Vale of Glamorgan, Neath, Conwy, Wrexham and Denbighshire Councils.

The voting system for the Welsh Parliament is also soon to change, adopting a proportional voting system, which will make the party less vulnerable to the brutal first past the post system that left them in this serious predicament in the first place. It goes to show the nationalist tail can wag the Labour dog, the changes to the voting system, as well as the Senedd’s expansion were cannily negotiated by former leader Adam Price after all.

Finally, following the resignation of Adam Price as leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth has been elected as their new media savvy and energetic leader. His main attack lines since being anointed leader have been directed at the Labour Party, which suggests a break from the easier relationship the Welsh Labour Government enjoyed under Price.

With his background in media at BBC Wales, many hope Rhun ap Iorwerth could be the knight in shining armour that Welsh Nationalism needs. The one to lead on the long march from Welsh-speaking heartlands, through the South Wales valleys and onto the Senedd. Though it is still far too early for nationalists to get their hopes up.

An Untimely End

As things stand, Welsh Nationalism’s political hopes are at their lowest ebb since the foundation of the Assembly. With the only real hope for Plaid being the potential for decline in the Labour Party’s historically high popularity, which is not a solid strategy however one looks at it. Though with record support for independence and a leader capable of capturing Labour votes, rumours of Welsh Nationalisms death may have been greatly exaggerated.

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29 comments

Tomi Benn

The referendum was in 1997 NOT 1998.

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Alun Gerrard

This was NOT the first referendum. A far lower turnout this time around. No mandate really as many did not vote. A matter of continual referendum until we cash cows said Yes.

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Llyn

Although the title of this article is overdone (trying to tie it in with a famous book on the Liberal Party), Plaid have to get out of being a party which simply attacks everyone from a position further to the left of the Labour Party (appealing to very few on the political spectrum) and making cheap shots attacking every spending cut in Wales without ever providing credible solutions to how Plaid would continue to pay for that same service/project.

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Annibendod

Likewise and I welcome your contribution. I posted several times to point out flaws with the implementation of the 20mph limit and they were downvoted then removed. Sadly, censorship is rife on this site. Deviation from the prevailing narrative is not permitted. It is enormously toxic and utterly devalues the public service this site ought to be providing. In the end this site has become an echo chamber and it saddens me greatly to say this.

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Alwyn Evans

test

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Annibendod

I don't believe Plaid's vote is in decline. The polls suggest that it continues to flatline and the party struggles to make headway outside of its heartlands. In policy terms you couldn't put a cigarette paper between Plaid and Labour on most issues bar constitutional matters. I struggle to understand Lab4IndyWales' position. To me, the best outcome is that Plaid becomes a home to those indepenence supporting Labour members who share Plaid's values. In the event of Welsh Statehood I fail to see the purpose of having two progressive parties on the same political territory and like Dafydd Iwan said on the prospect of a merger - Why not? The main reason for Plaid's current situation is that in Mark Drakeford, Labour have a shrewd political operator. He had parked his tanks on Plaid territory and retains significant support from the pro-autonomy vote. However, should someone like Vaughan Gething who is not viewed as pro-autonomy as Drakeford becomes Labour leader, I believe things will begin to change. People are sick to death of thedebased and dysfunctional politics of the UK. There is space for a better constitutional vision. Present the electorate with a realistic constitutional alternative and it is there to be won.

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hdavies15

Nationalism is at risk of dying for a number of reasons which have been well documented on earlier occasions. Plaid is part of the reason especially its "thought leadership" whoever they are. Far too easily distracted over recent decades into issues which would be better addressed when we have that vital self determination. Linked to this was the influx of screechy minority interests into YC. Not convinced they have gone away having switched focus into attacking national institutions from within. They act almost like a 5th column for "continuity colonialism" subverting Cymraeg and replacing it with an Anglophonic internationalism. New Empire ? Failure of Nationalist cause to attract and retain support of working class people. That should have been easier given how UK Labour have turned their backs on workers and sucked up to middle and seriously wealthy classes. In case they haven't noticed poor housing, patchy education, inaccessible health and related social services, low wages remain key components of most peoples' needs, not remote aspirations.

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Glen

Plaid will never make progress until they accept Labour is the problem not the solution.

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Nia James

Labour is a Unionist party, just like the Conservatives, Lib Dems, etc. If someone is a Welsh nationalist then why on earth would they vote for a Unionist party. Those marching in Bangor, and indeed all the Welsh electorate who are fed up from Westminster centralism - where today we have been called a "province" by a Tory Minister - should not support Unionist parties. But many do!

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Dai Ponty

Not so much for NATIONALISM but more for INDEPENDENCE and freedom from England to govern ourselves for Welsh people by Welsh people not having English UNIONISTS telling us what we can and cannot do without the bloody interfernce from the London Parliament we will not have to pay for the Royals Nuclear missiles massive Defence budget H S 2 the white Elephant forget what the london based press tell you you cannot afford as we England keep you LOAD OF BOLONY IF THEY KEPT US THEY WOULD HAVE GIVEN US INDEPENDENCE A LONG TIME AGO

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Annibendod

There is a good point in this. It is that we call for a democratic Welsh State and are called "nationalists" by people who are blatantly trying to impose an invented British nationality on a people who have identified as Cymry for centuries. I've no issue with "Britishness" as a multinational pan-island set of cultural ties - but there is no such nation as Britain.

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Riki

British wasn’t invented! It was co-opted by England. “Welsh” was the invented one in order for the English to convert their population into British. You couldn’t do this if a people already knew they were British. “Welsh” = British = Britons = Brythoniad = Cymric people.

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Silenced!

Oh here comes the flurry of "downvotes". Guess my post will be gone shortly. I once contacted Mark Mansfield about the consistency of moderation on his website. He had a right emotional meltdown. No pretence at investigating, or professionalism. Just "I've never heard of you" but "you were being offensive" and personal slurs against me then he blocked me when I replied with the same energy. He also banned me from the site. But seemingly didn't know how to ;-) TBH it's a clown show run by a big baby and you'll never get fairness of moderation on here.

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Steve Duggan

Interesting, the matches I've been on have been a very mixed affair with people of all ages and a healthy dose of younger people. Are you sure you are talking about the same marches? 🤨 There may well be selective photos, as you say, but my eyes don't lie.

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Silenced!

Do your eyes give an elevated view? My eyes also don't like but I acknowledge I am looking at only photographs, even when panned out to include a lot of the crowd. However, as a transect square, they give a flavour of the demographic attending and it seems far from the diversity claimed, according to them.

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Steve Duggan

I don't think the Welsh independence cause is on the decline, particularly amongst the youth, which is the most important group. However, it does appear fractured, definitely on the electoral front. As the article suggests more door knocking canvassers, in Plaids case, is something that needs to happen. But also far more leaflets, newspaper articles and other activities, promoting the benefits of independence, rather than just the marches. Independence needs to be at the forefront of every Welsh person's mind.

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Annibendod

Plaid needs activists and it needs to be far more professional if it is to be successful. It's no secret but it appears that it has been beyond the party to accomplish this in recent times. But things can always change.

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Padi Phillips

It's not just the benefits of independence that need to be considered, the here and now is of more pressing concern, and neither Welsh Labour or Plaid seem to have much to say there, and the FibDems and Tories even less. If anything characterises Welsh democracy at the Senedd level it is it's near apathetic state with less than 50% participation, i.e. people going out and casting a vote. It's far more than just the goal of independence, it's showing that at least people's everyday concerns are being considered, that the party in power isn't allowed to get away with ignoring the issues, which requires a decent opposition constantly challenging the Welsh Government over it's many failures. Beyond that it is coming up with imaginative solutions to local problems, keeping an eye on what has worked elsewhere and which might work here in Wales. There are many who passionately believe in independence, such as me, but there is a probably much bigger group who could be persuaded, but are still sceptical.

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Bethan

Agree, it's fractured but not sure how serious of a problem that is at this stage. The Welsh need to first decide on whether or not they would want independence before fretting over the mechanics of it. The movement is fractured, but that could also be considered as options. The formation of a modern democratic state. It's the worry of 'what if' that is Wales' Achilles heel. Overthinking and anticipating the worst. The primary question is simple. would we want to be independent? The answer comes from the heart not the head. If it is yes, then the Welsh people can make that happen in a way that works for us. People are so tired of the political status quo. A new, independent state offers the opportunity to set the stage. No longer adhering to the Westminster template. Cleaning up the political system.

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Alun Gerrard

If Wales want independence and I think they do not , then why have Welsh Labour and Plaid in charge?

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Alun Gerrard

The young might support independentance due to the successes of the Welsh Baccalaureate examinations.

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Maglocunos

Do we really think that Starmer's UK Labour will find traction in Cymru (the country soon to be formerly known as Wales)? .

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Maglocunos

Debate is always welcome for by the strength of our arguments we win. And what Silenced! seems not to appreciate, as does the author of this article, is that the independence movement is far broader than the street marchers, who can only ever be a cross-section representation of the people in one place and at any one moment in time. As one of the army of door knocking volunteers I can say that without a shadow of doubt there is widespread support in the community for independence, even amongst visitors from England but especially from people who know independence from the shackles of British colonialism such as Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Irish and so on. Independence is coming!

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Silenced!

Debate is not welcome on here, that's for damn sure. I've tried. You get your posts pulled and permabanned (but the forum is not that rigorous and can easily be got around). I don't appreciate that the indy movement is far broader than the marchers don't I? You got this from the fact I responded to the specific claim of the author? You are reading a lot of incorrect assumptions into what I said. As a door knocking volunteer your view that support is widespread is subjective at best. The people you speak to is no more representative of the whole than my view of crowd photos or Steve Duggan's all seeing eyesWhen canvassers and Born Again Christians knock on people's doors the two most common reactions areClose the door on them so they don't get a responseAgree with them so they will go away quickly rather than engage in a long doorstep debateAs any politician will tell you. Doorstep promises do not always result in votes in your favour. However, bellweathers for voting intention (such as membership of YC; PC voting patterns in by elections) suggest to me that interest in independence peaked in 2019 and has fallen by nearly 40% of their highest numbers and plateaued there ever since. Certain events took place after 2019 which offer possible causes for that fall. To me, those crowd photos confirm my theories on that. Welsh Indy simply is not an inclusive movement. This is just an observable fact as I see it, unless you have a data source with sufficient data points that suggests otherwise. I am open to being convinced otherwise. I wonder if you are. Never mind. Maybe there's be a surge if Wales win the Rugby world cup. Which will be ironic, given the OneNation Brit suck-ups the WRU are with their plastic "proud Welshmen" dragons and daffodils fans

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Rhosddu

The independence movement (what Chris Carter refers to as "nationalism") is alive and well, as the Bangor march shows. Those who showed up included English settlers, so the claim of no diversity is invalid. But Carter is right to stress that it is not the indy movement but Plaid Cymru who have a popularity problem; it is very revealing that while support for independence or for devo-max has increased in recent years, support for Plaid Cymru has declined then levelled out at a figure well below that of the Wales Tory branch. The party's problems are five-fold: 1/ the consensus of support for Drakeford's and Labour's 'soft nationalism' which has pulled the rug from under Plaid's feet; 2/ a policy overlap between Labour and PC on almost everything save the most fundamental of these constitutional issues; 3/ the allegations of trouble within the party, as mentioned briefly by Carter; 4/ the fallout from several years of identity politics promoted by Leanne Wood (and begun under Ieuan Wyn Jones) as an attempt to move away from the label of "party of the Welsh language". It is now Welsh Labour who have promoted the Welsh language successfully, whereas Plaid were initially still thinking 'Blue Books' and seeing the language as an electoral millstone; 5/ the unavoidable reality that Welsh Labour are fully embedded in the largest population centres, and it'll take an earthquake for that to change. They'll even survive the right-wing media hostility to 20 mph. Rhun ap Iorweth is probably a capable leader, but he's got his work cut out. Better, perhaps, for them to focus on local problems that will win them votes in councils and constituencies where Labour have either proved toothless or don't want to know; and there are plenty of such problems.

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Richard

Political parties are NOT about votes or MPs etc - they are about delivering outcomes and the positive change they seek. Plaid remains the most unsuccessful succesdful party in these Islands….with out a doubt. Even the great “ Lord from Meirionnydd’ saw this. its influence and effect on others has been profound and its talented leaders across the years have delivered through moving Wales forward. i awaited a delayed train change at Wolverhampton station some dozen years back with an impressive and still sharply dressed Aberystwyth bound academic type. He was happy to expound his views on Plaid and its role in Wales to the three of us over a coffee. Without revealing his own legal, parliamentary & ministerial and judicial backound in Plaid and Labour he shared openly 50 years of experience as an observor of Plaids influence across Wales. This Jurist and Peer offerd a light touch masterclass of policy and cultural issues that Plaid had directly and in directly brought about.

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Alun Gerrard

Plaid Cymru have not yet grasped the list of recommendations ..a list of 82 actually in to their naughty and disgraceful activities as reported by their own investigations. No Troll comments please.

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Riki

It destroyed itself by trying to appease minorities of minorities. We British are in the position we are because we have a history of self destruction. It’s a terrible British (Cymric) characteristic that those over the Border feed on.

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Richard E

Think 🤔 you might have muddled “ Britons “ one of several ancient Romano names for the collective / diverse tribes here - they encountered - with British - an attempt by those who disposed the Scottish / Ireland parliaments to rebrand greater English to Great British..

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The young might support independentance due to the successes of the Welsh Baccalaureate examinations.

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