The Plaid Cymru surge - has the party gone defensive?

Jonathan Edwards

Last week’s ITV Cymru poll must have led to delirium in Welsh political circles.

All recent polls have indicated that Wales was heading for three-party paralysis next May - yet this poll indicates that Plaid Cymru has established a decisive lead beyond the margin of error, with Reform second.

If the trend in this poll solidifies, it appears that the current party of government in our country will finish in a poor third place at the next election with the official opposition languishing in fourth - on the precipice of the closed list system cliff edge.

Furthermore, it appears that Labour is losing votes in droves to Plaid Cymru with a poll rating nearly at a half of Rhun ap Iorwerth's party. Similarly, the Tories are continuing to haemorrhage votes to Reform at an accelerating rate. It looks increasingly likely that Welsh politics therefore will be turned on its head.

It would be churlish therefore not to congratulate Rhun ap Iorwerth on the incredible job he has done.

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Basket case

He inherited a basket case of a party that was engaged in open internal warfare. With a year to go to the election his party has a credible chance of winning a Welsh national election for the first time. It is an incredible achievement.

However, the main driver for the Plaid surge has been the unpopularity of the new Labour government at UK level as opposed to Plaid Cymru initiating some major change in the Welsh political dynamic. This is not the SNP post the 2014 Referendum for instance, where the tectonic plates had decisively shifted.

In several reported interviews last week, Mr ap Iorwerth offered an insight into the conservative offer his party will make to the people of Wales over the coming year.

Firstly, any aspiration on the national question is kicked well and far into the political long grass. The priority, we are told, will be improving Welsh Government-sponsored public services.

The priority, as Plaid spokespeople have made publicly clear this week, is not to spook potential Labour switchers. To what degree it is wise to publicly state that you are only interested in the voters of one party is a valid question for another time.

However, as an election position it is perfectly understandable. Mr ap Iorwerth doesn't want to spend the next year answering questions on some of the challenges my previous two Nation articles have posed on the party’s supposed long term constitutional aspiration for Wales.

The danger however is that if Plaid Cymru do not advance the constitutional argument at the heart of its offer it will fail to meaningfully change the Welsh political dial. In other words, those current Labour converts could easily fall back into the Labour fold if the only thing Plaid Cymru is offering is a cuddly version of their old party allegiance.

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Timidity

Mr ap Iorwerth and Plaid Cymru are betting the house that their best route to victory is not to scare potential switching Labour voters. In doing so it endangers leaving those who want more radical change to the populist right. The timidity of Mr ap Iorwerth could backfire spectacularly if, when it comes to it on polling day, those potential Labour switchers decide to stay loyal to the mothership.

Plaid strategists should also be thinking about what happens if Plaid find themselves running the Welsh Government and unable to improve Welsh public services and especially the economy due to the limits imposed by the current settlement.

The Welsh public will not react kindly to a party crying wolf at that stage about the need for more powers. Plaid Senedd Members should surely know the deficiencies of the current powers at the disposal of the Welsh Government and that in government their party will be inheriting a Welsh public service network that has Labour place people in most key positions and who are unlikely to be helpful to the aims of Ministers.

Furthermore, without a clear policy on the advancement of Welsh political institutions, can Plaid Cymru credibly be described as a nationalist political party any longer? Labour could easily cobble together an ap Iorwerth-like plan to 'redesign the relationship between the nations in these islands.' Quite frankly this is an empty statement that can mean absolutely anything - not least, are we talking about the islands of the British State or the wider British Isles which includes the Republic of Ireland? Your guess is as good as mine.

Aghast

On hearing of the Plaid position last week an old Scottish nationalist Westminster colleague contacted me aghast at the lack of vision from Plaid Cymru at a time where the old two-party Westminster system is seemingly collapsing.

Even if the tactic works for the election, Plaid Cymru could quickly resemble the UK Labour government without a guiding mission based on the raison d'être of the party. In such a scenario Plaid Cymru will find itself a hostage to events.

One such development could be the British State on the verge of imploding as a result of Scotland electing a majority of pro-independence MSPs. With nationalist sentiment in Scotland on fire, will Mr ap Iorwerth as First Minster seriously ignore the opportunities for Wales?

This author and other commentators have outlined why Plaid Cymru will never have a better chance of winning a Welsh election next May. The same applies to the wider national movement that Plaid Cymru claims to lead. Unfortunately, from what we are seeing at the moment from the Plaid leadership, it is highly unlikely that the British government are quaking in their boots in fear of what a Welsh national uprising next May will mean for the future of the State.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24