The long march to Welsh independence

Jonathan Edwards

Last weekend's Independence march organised by Yes Cymru and All Under One Banner Cymru was another resounding success with South Wales Police estimating that between 6,000 and 7,000 people were in attendance.

The independence debate is now undoubtedly entrenched in our politics.

Furthermore, the most recent poll on Welsh independence was a landmark event that future historians will point to when our time is recorded by the generations that follow.

The poll indicated that a majority in Wales would vote for independence if it meant the country would rejoin the EU.

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Seismic

This is seismic: it is the first time that a poll has indicated that a majority of the people of our country have crossed the psychological Rubicon - even though the question was hypothetical in nature (and, as I’ll explore next week, loaded with problems for nationalists).

A straight poll on the situation as it stands puts independence at 41%. It’s definitely ‘game on’ time.

However, with the foundations in place to launch a genuine bid for national freedom, so does the political pressure mount about how to achieve the ambition.

Now the serious work and thinking needs to be done.

Marching in various towns across the country alone isn’t going to lead to Welsh independence.

Those that advance the cause should also be wary. Once the British State considers a threat to its own territorial integrity a genuine danger, its whole apparatus will be unleashed.

Are the leaders of the national movement in Wales ready for what is coming?

In Scotland it appears that a pro-independence majority will be elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2026.

The British State will very soon again face a live campaign within a constituent part for secession.

It is important that in Wales we are far better prepared for what is coming than we were at the beginning of the last decade.

The McAllister/Williams report on future constitutional options provides an excellent starting point.

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Supreme Court

Pro-independence supporters in Scotland and Wales however face the same challenge of how to initiate a legal referendum. Securing the support of the Scottish Parliament will not be enough as the Supreme Court has ruled that a public vote can only be held with the consent of the UK Parliament.

A deliberate veto by the UK Government in the event of a clear mandate following next May’s election of course would allow the pro-Independence parties in Scotland to accuse Westminster of ignoring Scottish democracy.

In such a scenario the SNP, Greens and Alba will hope that the backlash against the Union would be irreversible. However, they would continue to face the same problem of how to get to a legally binding vote.

In Wales there is no hope of a pro-independence referendum majority in the Senedd. Even on an incredibly good night for Plaid Cymru next May they will be nowhere near the magic 49 seat number.

Again, this is all academic as Plaid Cymru has dropped its policy of securing a Senedd majority for the purpose of endorsing a referendum on independence. It will be interesting to see what they say in their manifesto.

Just imagine for one moment that Plaid Cymru was serious about independence: to advance to a position to be even able to ask Westminster for a vote, they will have to persuade one of the unionist parties to support such a position.

Devo fiscal max

While I believe there is a perfectly sound strategic case for the Tories to advance devo fiscal max in order to place the economy heart and centre of Senedd politics, I can’t see how they will ever entertain supporting a referendum on independence.

I can’t see Labour adopting a pro-independence referendum position either, even though many of the party’s supporters are now in the Yes camp.

This leaves Reform. If Farage was canny, he would offer a multi-option referendum in the context of Reform winning the Senedd election and then winning a general election in 2029 in some sort of confidence and supply agreement with Plaid for a vote on Independence/status quo/abolish.

Rhun ap Iorwerth has ruled out working with Reform, so it’s a non-starter in any case.

Based on the relationship between the parties, their positions and the key personalities involved in the great game of Welsh politics, I am not particularly clear in my mind how we get to a position where the Senedd supports a Welsh Government motion advancing a legal referendum - let alone persuading a future UK Government to allow one.

If Plaid Cymru won’t work with Reform or even the Tories, then Labour has a veto over Wales’ constitutional status, which the new Senedd voting system strengthens.

Under Proportional Representation the only way we get to first base on a legal referendum is if one of the unionist parties, probably Labour, becomes a nationalist party. That is the uncomfortable reality facing the Welsh national movement.

Which brings me back to Scotland. The only way I can see Labour in Wales changing its position is if the Scots manage to force a second vote on independence and win.

Keep an eye out on developments in Alba therefore over the coming years: as always they are hugely significant for our own country.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, 2010-2024