The Lib Dems need a bold idea: what can they do to gain relevance?

Jonathan Edwards

The latest YouGov opinion poll was sobering for all the traditional unionist parties in Wales.

Much has been commented on the troubles facing Labour and the Conservatives; however, the Liberal Democrats also find themselves in deep trouble at only 7%.

The party in Wales has failed to mirror the success of the party in England where at Westminster level across the UK in the latest poll they have overtaken the Tories and are only five points behind Labour in second place to Reform.

Whereas in England the party is succeeding in mopping up support from the collapse facing both Labour and the Tories, in Wales those voters are more likely to move to Plaid Cymru. Only 8% of those who voted Labour at the last Senedd election have switched to the Liberal Democrats.

As George Monbiot writes this week in the Guardian, this compares to nearly 52% of those that voted Labour at the last general election across the UK considering switching to the Lib Dems or the Greens (Thinks Insight and Strategy poll last week).

Jane Dodds, the sole current party representative in the Senedd, has played her hand well in securing a £100m in commitments for abstaining during the key votes on the last Welsh Government Budget.

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Credit

However, the voting Welsh public are not going to give the Liberal Democrats much credit come voting next May.

Unless something dramatic happens, the best they can hope for is a handful of MSs in the next Senedd.

The Liberal Democrats need to come up with bold initiatives that will get them in the game over the next 12 months, where a few percentage points in support could make a massive difference in seat allocation.

It requires some eye-catching social democratic pledges that will attract traditional Labour voters and look to appeal to middle of the road traditional Tory voters disillusioned with the kowtowing to Faragism by the Conservatives.

One possible ‘Clause 4 initiative’ which could catch the imagination would be for the Liberal Democrats to declare themselves as the first unionist party that would support a referendum on Welsh independence, which they could even caveat with certain conditions.

It would not entail them as a party supporting a Yes vote, only supporting the principle of the Welsh public having their say. The party could adopt a position of neutrality by saying members would be free to support whatever side they wanted and use key spokespeople to advance different arguments to portray the party as a broad church.

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Precedent

There is a precedent as the Liberal Democrats of course were the first of the traditional mainstream UK parties to support a referendum on EU membership.

Such a pivot would enable the Liberal Democrats to triangulate Plaid Cymru who currently top the polls.

If Plaid solidify their lead, then the constitutional question will be an inevitable centrepiece of the election, even though Rhun ap Iorwerth seems intent on downplaying matters.

The Liberal Democrats coming out for a referendum could force Plaid to defend a position they seem petrified of advancing. They would also be able to say to those that support the advancement of the national cause that they are the only party that offers a meaningful route to a determination on the big question.

Furthermore, looking at some of the internal selection battles published to date, after the next Senedd election the Plaid Cymru group is likely to have an all-powerful contingent of the extreme left of the party.

Alternative home

The Lib Dems should be positioning themselves as an alternative home for anyone that is pro-Wales in outlook and doesn’t subscribe to permanent revolutionary Trotskyism.

Their current position on the constitution leaves them fighting in a crowded field with Reform, Labour and the Tories. Hardcore unionists are highly unlikely to see the Liberal Democrats as their vehicle of choice, especially as the party policy is to support a federal solution to the UK.

Which brings me to the next point. It is not inconceivable that the Liberal Democrats could find themselves in coalition with Labour at a UK level following the next general election.

Following Brexit, the Lib Dems were the only unionist party that advanced the argument that the British State would need to be reconfigured to reflect its multi-polar nature by creating inter-governmental joint decision-making structures. When it comes to those possible negotiations with Labour after the next general election, it will need a position that leads to federalism being a possible compromise landing zone, especially considering that the clarion calls for a second referendum in Scotland by this stage could well be deafening.

Is it time for the Liberal Democrats in Wales to regrasp the spirit of Cymru Fydd?

Cymru Fydd (Wales To Be) was a late 19th Century movement that advocated self-government for Wales. One of its leading members in his early political career was David Lloyd George, the future Liberal Prime Minister.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24