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Opinion

The left need to realise that just being right won’t win them elections

By NationCymru
Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

Ifan Morgan Jones

The political left needs to start winning elections, and soon, or the 2020s are going to be an extremely long decade for them.

In the UK and USA, it is now almost a decade since anyone on the left won a nation-state wide referendum or election. Across Europe, the rest of the western world, and further afield in nations such as India we have seen the rise of the populist right-wing flatten everything before them.

The left have a simple strategy when it comes to an election – be right, have the right policies, arm themselves with facts proving that they’re right, and explain to people that they’re right, and they will (surely, this time?) win the election.

But this isn’t really how democracy works. Truth is a particularly nebulous concept in politics, and even if you have cold, hard provable facts at hand people won’t necessarily listen to them if they think you're approaching them with the wrong attitude.

It’s a well-documented phenomena by now that people who hear facts they don’t want to agree with will simply disregard them. On every side of the political compass, ‘facts’ are very often things we marshall in order to justify causes we already believe in.

In an age of online filter bubbles this phenomena is made worse because we now live in a world where we are exposes to facts that support our beliefs and are shielded from facts we don’t like.

To win elections, you need to win over people who live in the opposite filter bubble. You can’t win elections just by mobilising your own base.

The paradox of democracy is that for the left, success means winning the votes of people who would usually vote right, and for the right, people who would usually vote left.

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Wavelength

Ultimately, two things win elections and you need both.

The first is a message that communicates the fact that you share the voters’ worldview. This is about being on the voters’ wavelength. ‘I am like you. You are like me. Because we are alike, I will look after your interests, which I understand.’

Because of this, nothing can damage your relationship with voters more than giving the impression that you don't like them, or even worse look down your nose at them.

This is why Hillary Clinton’s comments that Trump supporters were ‘deplorable’ and Remainers’ insistence that Brexit voters were thick were so damaging.

If you were a Trump or Brexit supporter but were open to change your mind, nothing would bring down the brain-barricade faster than even the hint of a suggestion that you’re a bad or stupid person.

I’m sure that some will inevitably claim that what I’m arguing here is that the left should simply ‘give in’ to the right’s views, and pander to their beliefs.

But that’s not what I’m arguing. What I’m saying is that the left should modify their arguments and attitude so that they are on the wavelength of those voters who have been turning towards right-wing parties.

Let’s take Brexit as an example. Remainers’ strategy throughout has been to denigrate people’s pride in being British and list all the bonuses such as freedom of movement that will be lost.

They may well be correct, but this is arguing for Brexit from the point of view of a Remainer. To win you have to argue from the point of view of a person who doesn't share your values and beliefs. You have to put yourself in their shoes.

In the case of Brexit, I always felt that the argument was ultimately about identity, not the economy – as well as giving the political establishment a slap.

Therefore the most effective Remain argument would be to emphasises the extent to which Brexit would give the EU an advantage over Britain, and how it would empower all the worst people at Westminster.

The same principle applies in the case of arguing for Welsh independence. If you wave an Owain Glyndŵr flag and talk about Wales being a nation again, you’re making yourself feel good but not doing anything to convince those who don’t see the relevance of medieval Welsh princes or don't necessarily even feel Welsh.

What people do tend to agree on is that Westminster is rotten to the core and that Wales tends to get a bad deal from them. You need to frame the argument to suit the people who don’t agree with you, not repeat the arguments that got you and your peers on board.

The left need to start treating elections like a game of limbo. You have to contort yourself to get under the bar and through to the other side.

The left’s current strategy is that if they just run into the bar hard enough it’ll get out of their way. That if they just call out views they disagree with forcefully and angrily enough, and demonstrate enough moral superiority, they will win some kind of war of attrition and everyone will be cowed into accepting their point of view.

The truth is the opposite. Such aggressive tactics will just make people less likely to accept their point of view, and they will keep losing, and the right winning, in perpetuity.

Lord Ashcroft's report on Labour's election campaign, based on a poll of 10,000 and 18 focus groups in seats Labour lost, was particularly telling on this point:

"[Labour] seemed not to understand ordinary working people, to disdain what they considered mainstream views and to disapprove of success... As far as many of these former supporters were concerned, then, the Labour Party [...] looked down on people who disagreed with it, [...] disapproved of their values and treated them like fools." [My italics]

Even if individual Labour policies were popular, even if they were right, their attitude was what turned people off.

Struggle

The second essential thing that’s needed to win elections is news access. By this I mean having a platform to espouse your message in order to reach the bulk of the population.

Repetition is key here. If a simple message can be repeated often enough it will eventually be hammered home. ‘Get Brexit done’ being the most famous recent example.

If you don’t have a simple message that will convince people that you are like them and on the same wavelength as them, this will of course not matter.

That was the fate that befell Labour and Hillary Clinton, and it’s a fate I fear will befall Bernie Sanders (if he is the Democratic nominee) in November. They had and have plenty of news access but swathes of their former electoral fortresses just didn’t believe they were on the same wavelength as them.

But you can have the best message in the world and if you can’t reach the public with it, it won’t make a difference. You need both.

As well as Labour, in the context of Welsh politics, there is, of course, a party that is currently struggling in the run-up to the 2021 Senedd elections with both these conundra – Plaid Cymru.

Like Labour, they are a left-wing, broadly-Remain party concerned with both social and economic justice. Unlike Labour, they are also a party without a great deal of news access.

In the case of Plaid Cymru, there is also, in fact, a double danger of people perceiving the party to be looking down its nose at them.

Firstly on the issues of Brexit and social justice and secondly on the issue of the Welsh language, where there is an (erroneous but understandable) perception by many that Welsh speakers consider themselves a level above in a hierarchy of Welshness.

On the issue of news access, Plaid Cymru need to find a way to reach beyond the weak and fragmented Welsh media and reach voters that wouldn’t usually hear from them.

Ultimately there is no way forward on this point apart from supporting the Welsh media, and boost of the ground.

But perhaps a trickier battle will be to convince voters that Plaid Cymru are on their wavelength. This doesn't mean giving up their causes and pandering to the right. It's about showing people they want to stand with them, not preach at them.

That battle will be won not just in the messages created at Tŷ Gwynfor in Cardiff but also in how the party’s supporters reach out to potential voters, both on the doorstep and online.

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15 comments

Ben Angwin

A guy knocked on my door; I let him speak. In about 50 sentences he'd mentioned Palestine, something about binary I didn't know what it was, showed me a Worker's magasine, talked about 'the elite', corporate produce, veganism and something called intersectionality, about which time I just blanked it out. Then I said to him, 'Your shoes cost more than mine. Why aren't you talking about jobs?' And I shut the door.

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Rhosddu

No mention of Wales and its problems, then, in that bloke's spiel? My guess is there wasn't.

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Simon Gruffydd

This article is itself an good working example of where "the Left" get it wrong - although not in the way Ifan espouses. First of all, Ifan states his belief that policies of "the Left" are the best ones and correct (making any contrary positions de facto wrong). Quote: "The left have a simple strategy ... explain to people that they’re right ...". We are immediately confronted by a lack of self-reflection and an authoritarian level of certainty. "We can debate - but I am always right", so to speak. It resembles conviction of a religious mind, not an open, democratic one. Later on Ifan states that the Remain/Leave argument was more about identity than economics - conveniently failing to mention the elephant in the room - democratic accountability. The EU has little if any democratic accountability. When the EU commission passes laws and regulations we don't like, unlike in Wales or the UK, we don't get to vote them out in a few years. That issue is central yet "the Left" won't mention it because it doesn't suit their agenda. The most damning flaw of "the Left", or "the New Left" to be more precise, is their inability to hold honest debates around controversial topics such as transgender, mass-migration, Islam, climate change, etc.. Just like in the former USSR and currently in China, dissident thought is not tolerated. Like religious fanatics of the past, their knee-jerk reaction to contrary positions is to first slander (racist, far-right, Nazi, etc.) then to de-platform or censor. Taking it even farther, people who identify as "the Left" will try to harm the "wrong-thinker" through doxing, getting them fired from their job, even advocate violence against their opponents. Examples? One woman was actually fired from here work recently for stating her belief that there were only 2 sexes. Another man was fired for posting an old Billy Connolly joke on his Facebook page. These examples are just a tip of the iceberg. Even the Conservative party is getting in on the act by shaming an MP who attended a conference on European conservatives where (gasp!) popular elected leader Viktor Orban was speaking. So who is left to argue for Free Speech and open honest debate? It's the cornerstone of a functioning democracy yet it is being trampled on by virtually all political parties. If a political party wants to achieve electoral success, all it has to do is listen, not plug its ears and deride those (the majority) who has a different opinion on important matters. There's a lot more I could write about this but I'll leave it there ;)

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John Ellis

Surely the drift of the author's argument is irrefutable. The simile for me is the Jehovah's Witnesses who've turned up on my doorstep at least occasionally in every single place where I've lived. The ones likely to get furthest with me - if by no means all the way - are those who, in their opening gambit, take a little time and make some serious effort to first explore where I'm at, and then tune the communication of their message accordingly. The ones who get absolutely nowhere are those who from the outset make it clear that they're the enlightened ones and they've graciously come to deliver me from my morass of utter ignorance and ungodliness. A bit late now to be revisiting the Brexit controversy, but the weakest point in the Brexiteer argument always struck me as the imputation that staying in the EU was the agenda of an alliance of political, economic and financial elites concerned solely with their own interests, whereas the Brexiteers were the selfless tribunes of honest ordinary citizens. Nothing about the coalition of Brexiteers made that imputation credible, in that the Brexiteer leaders looked no less elite than the leaders of the faction arguing for 'remain'. You might indeed conclude that anyone failing to discern that fact was perhaps a tad thick; but common sense surely tells you that disclosing that conclusion absolutely guarantees that you wouldn't win hearts and minds! Exactly the same surely applies to the argument for total - or even just greater - autonomy for Wales. As and when that argument starts to relate to the concerns of numbers of average Welsh voters, some will start at least to give it a hearing. If it doesn't, they simply won't. It's not a question of 'pandering' to the beliefs of people who thus far have no interest in Welsh autonomy, on an agenda of 'what do we think Jones will swallow, and we'll - timorously and tentatively! - offer no more than that'. Rather it's about trying to put yourself in the place of Jones who's asking, in the context of his own real life concerns, what there is to eat.

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Rhosddu

The article is a frank and open admission that the middle-class self-designated "left", armed with the axiomatic certainty of the rightness of their position ("four legs good, two legs bad") in the manner of Oliver Cromwell or Lenin, made the rookie mistake of treating the working-class section of the electorate with contempt while trying to secure their votes. I mentally shake hands with Ifan Morgan Jones for being man enough to acknowledge that. The adoption and use, however, of the emotive terms 'left' and 'right' contribute nothing to any political debate today (this is not the 1930s!) and should be dropped. Are Welsh independence supporters 'left' or 'right'? I see nothing very 'left wing' about Welsh Labour's spineless kow-towing to Westminster and its agents such as the Planning Inspectorate, nor Lisa Nandy's description of the independence movements/parties in Wales and Scotland as "narrow nationalists". And this BritNat viewpoint has been a feature of Labour for decades, at all levels -- when I was a student in Cardiff many years ago I attended a political debate in which a young Scottish Labour supporter complained, in utter sincerity, "My country is plagued by nationalism", and threw it open to the large audience to suggest a solution. Wales has serious problems that are a direct product of a colonial relationship, and they need either to be dealt with one at a time using the toothless instruments of limited devolution, or hoovered up in one go by means of independence. The problem facing the 'left' (and one that Ifan neglected to mention) is that many or most of its current tenets are of little or no relevance to pre-independence Wales, and this, as much as calling Brexit supporters thick, geriatric or racist, is what has condemned the new left to the political wilderness. Once they realise that such wokery will not wash when potential Welsh voters are battling poverty, drug abuse, the fracturing of communities (both anglophone and Welsh-speaking), and homelessness, then the Yasmin Begums of this world can plead their case and perhaps get a more sympathetic hearing.

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Alwyn ap Huw, Ysw.

The problem is that the right hasn't "won" by doing what Ifan suggests, by respecting opponents. The right has won by demonising and othering opponents, we are "traitors", "Europhobes", "anti British", "deserve to be executed for opposing Brexit" etc. The problem is that the left can't do the same, because of who controls the MSM. Fake Labour "antisemitism" is called out, true Tory blaten racism isn't! And the idea that social media can somehow overcome MSM right wing bias is also fake, the Facebooks / Googles / Twitters of social media are bigger right wing corporations than even the Murdoch Empire. The only chance that the national cause has is to piss off the establishment so much that they start attacking Wales and the Welsh and "othering" us. Neilj McEvoy has pissed of the establishment, but pissed off Plaid in the process. And therein lies a major nationalist problem! Perhaps Plaid should think more about being part of the campaign to piss off the establishment in favour of the Welsh National Cause and less about being a "nice, let's not upset anybody" party! Look back at the period before Plaid won in the same area it has won since the 1960's and never moved out of. It was an antiestablishment party, hated by the English press. Now we are a party that loves an occasional nice but condescending article about our leader in the Guardian!

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j humphrys

Before 2016, I was pretty much in the Brexit camp, then drifted bit by bit to being pro European and Plaid. This happened because I took time from doing stuff I liked, to the pain in the butt of looking at politics. Horrible. How to ease others into doing the same? I noticed a stat. showing why Bernie has done so well, so far, in the US primaries; legwork. Bloomberg uses his billions to hire lobbyists. Bernie supporters are so young and idealistic, that they work for love, and in New Hampshire knocked on 157,000 doors!

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Huw Davies

Spot on there jh with your closing line - "Bernie supporters are so young and idealistic, that they work for love, and in New Hampshire knocked on 157,000 doors!" I don't think Bernie will beat Trump because of an embedded prejudice that still lives on in USA. Had Corbyn and Labour campaigned like that in the UK he probably could have dumped Boris through the ropes, indeed might have dumped Mrs May in 2017 ! Lesson learned ? not likely. The nearest you got to that here is the dreaded demonised Neil McEvoy whose activists are out in the community finding what's bothering ordinary people and taking up cases. Unionist parties and our dear old Plaid prefer the chatter within their own echo chambers where they don't get exposed to the filthy common herd and their problems. Time to wake up and do the hard graft just like Bernie's crew.

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In reply to Huw Davies

j humphrys

Yes, as Ifan says in his last line. All the best to Neil, of course.

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Gaynor

Cytuno gyda chi parthed PC, y camgymeriad yw tybio fel mae'r woke yn ei wneud bod pawb wnaeth gefnogi brexit yn adain dde, tydyn nhw ddim.. agree re comments on PC, but those who supported Brexit are not all right wingers. Can we just forget this right/ left business it's total easte of time

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John Evans

avail yourself of the information you need. stop 'straw manning' everyone. I don't need 'left' 'right' or 'centre' telling me 'facts' when I bothered to find out for myself. My political conclusions have been reached by what I learned myself - not from the vague opinions of phantom strangers that allegedly knock on doors. Who exactly is defining these political stances? Despite having the same political outlook for years, I have been accused of moving accross the spectra depending on who I'm speaking with!

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John Ellis

I take your point and indeed largely agree with it. But my impression is that previous posters arguing in favour of 'strangers that allegedly knock on doors' were thinking primarily in terms of those strangers going out and about to build up a picture of the real priority concerns of individuals and communities rather than trying to hammer home the doctrines of their own political tribe.

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Citizen

It's good for Ifan to be honest in his views but all this divisive talk of left and right is a bit archaic and , it has to be said and as Simon Gruffydd has mentioned , the worryingly authoritarian talk of 'the left being right' and the paranoid creation of 'populist right' bogeymen is, indeed, a bit worrying. As is the 'othering' of how 'they' should 'not be pandered to' as if they were some diseased people in need of banishing. If left and right has to be brought into it, it's worth remembering that the old left actually understood what was going on with neo liberal projects such as the EU, and were not yet destroyed and sabotaged by insane wokery and identity politics mixed in with Blairite neo liberalism and globalisation. As this video shows for example, the left were once more rational and were anti-EU and the right were pro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V70X2UNSkUI

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Walter Hunt

The Labour Party was transformative in the 20th century when it understood people's fears: the fear of getting sick, losing your job, getting old and understood the self respect that came from meaningful work and supporting yourself and family. In the 21st century people are oppressed by feelings of loss of control over their lives; the uncertainty of "JAMs" and "gigs" and "hustles"; generation-can't-afford-to-rent-let-alone-buy; mountains of debt; toxic lifestyles affecting relationships, mental and physical health. "Left" or "Right" the answer is not sticking-plaster policies or invented scapegoats.

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Clive

There are rare polticians who when faced with truth being spoken to power, either they explain in terms you get why your world view is missing a few important items of information or they nod, agree and try to enguage in a shared empathy and frustration with you about why the particular issue is so hard to fix. I have only encountered 2 such politicans, 1 in Cardiff and 1 in Westminster. From Council Office to Westminster, the rest are scared of anything that embarrses or exposes them. Until these muppets gt over their ego being more important than the people who they work for, we are ....... The best and the worst exist in each party.

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Replying to Rhosddu Cancel

No mention of Wales and its problems, then, in that bloke's spiel? My guess is there wasn't.

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