The independence paradox and a possible road to victory

Jonathan Edwards

Last week’s article looked at the challenges the campaign for Welsh independence will face on getting to a legal referendum based on current political realities.

The plain fact of the matter, the only way to a legal referendum, is if a unionist political party (ie one committed to the British State) which has enough combined Senedd Members with Plaid Cymru to form a Senedd majority, is willing to accept a position of supporting a public vote.

Even if that highly unlikely event was to happen, then the UK Government would also need to endorse the position of the Senedd. A lot of stars will have to align therefore before the big question is ever put before the people of Wales.

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Staggering

Notwithstanding these hurdles that the national movement in Wales faces, recent polls as discussed last week are quite staggering for those of us who support Wales becoming an independent country.

The 51% poll rating in support of Welsh independence within the context of EU membership is seismic.

The strategy that the Plaid Cymru group in Westminster pursued with vigour following the Brexit referendum of intertwining the Welsh and European questions has succeeded beyond our wildest dreams.

The position we took was guided by several factors. Firstly, considering the composition of the Welsh economy and the greater importance of exports to the EU, advancing an argument of only accepting a so-called soft Brexit (exiting from the EU political structures but staying within the EU economic frameworks) was the right thing to do in terms of minimising the damage to people’s economic wellbeing.

When the UK Government (and the Welsh Government as it happens) advocated leaving the frameworks, we then argued for a confirmatory referendum on the British Government’s policy.

Secondly, we were also driven by an understanding that Welsh independence can only ever be realised if Wales and England are situated within a common or larger economic entity.

Our preference was the existing European frameworks, but if the UK Government were to pursue a hard exit, then the new GB framework needed to be based on equality between Wales, England and Scotland as opposed to being Westminster dominated. Regrettably both battles were lost.

Thirdly, it also gave us a division line with our political opponents during the Parliamentary Brexit debates, all of whom apart from the Liberal Democrats supported a hard Brexit.

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Paradox

The Welsh national movement today faces a strategic paradox. Brexit, which has given the campaign for independence so much energy, also poses difficulties in terms of how to achieve the aspiration.

I see some who support Welsh independence advancing the argument that the relationship between Wales and England following independence and EU membership would resemble the current arrangements on the island of Ireland (between the Republic and Northern Ireland).

While perfectly feasible, I don’t think there is any hope of ever winning a referendum based on advancing any sort of economic dislocation between Wales and England involving restrictions on the movement of goods and services.

In such a circumstance the no campaign would eat the yes campaign for breakfast.

The debate we faced in Westminster way back in 2016 could come into play once again, however, if the UK Government begins to reintegrate economically with the EU and ultimately rejoins the European single market and customs union.

While I don’t envisage such a drastic step at next week's UK-EU summit in London, the talks could start the process which gets us there because it is plainly obvious it is in the UKs economic (and I would argue geopolitical) interests to rebuild bridges with the continent.

Sweet spot

If the UK were to find itself back in the EU economic frameworks in whatever form, but not a member of the EU, then there would be a sweet spot moment to potentially win a referendum.

A victory for yes would then pave the way for Wales rejoining the political union on its own terms without dislocating economic activity with England. Based on the latest poll, this is the most probable route to victory, notwithstanding the problem of how to obtain a legally binding referendum.

It wouldn’t be completely non-problematic, of course, as those advancing a yes vote would have to be able to guarantee that Wales would be able to secure Treaty opt outs on adoption of the Euro currency on joining the EU.

While I would be perfectly happy to have euros in my wallet as opposed to sterling, a referendum could not be won based on different currencies in Wales and England. The new Welsh state would also have to overcome veto objections by Member States such as Spain, which would be nervous about what disintegration of the British State would mean for them.

The Prime Minister seems very cautious in his approach to Europe which goes against all rational thinking. Fear of reigniting the European debate only emboldens Reform. If Labour genuinely views Reform as the real opposition at UK level, then they need to call out Farage and his followers on the miserable failure of Brexit.

The danger for the Welsh national movement is that once Labour realises that it must pivot on Europe, they move towards advancing full membership not just economic realignment.

If successful, Wales would then be in the position of Scotland in 2014 where EU membership in the case of independence would not be guaranteed.

Furthermore, with EU membership secured on a UK basis, support for independence in Wales could deflate faster than a helium balloon pierced by a crossbow bolt.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24