The First Minister faces a major strategic choice - which way will she choose?

Jonathan Edwards

Last summer when Eluned Morgan assumed office, her approach to the role of First Minister must have seemed quite straightforward.

Ride the honeymoon wave of her own ascent to the most important job in Welsh politics and a stunning general election victory by her party at Westminster level. Furthermore, the consensus was that the economic picture would begin to improve, which normally results in a happier electorate. She could look forward to 2026 with an element of confidence.

Move forward a few months and matters don’t look so rosy, with the Labour Party at UK level in crisis mode as the economic picture darkens and the Chancellor reverts to a Tory austerity-like philosophy.

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Loyal servant

The First Minister finds herself in an unenviable situation. She is undoubtedly a loyal servant of the Labour Party and views politics very much through the lens of her party. Yet she surely knows that some of the policies being implemented at UK level aren’t particularly favourable to Wales.

Witness the row this week over welfare policy, where the First Minister looks somewhat stuck in the middle and not sure whether to support the line of the UK Government or voice opposition.

Furthermore, most commentators believe that matters for the Labour Party at UK level will get even worse over the next year.

Working on the evidence of recent polls, while recognising that a new poll is imminent, it is clear Labour are losing support to more than one challenger and from both political flanks.

Labour strategists should be thinking about how to stop the haemorrhage.

A year from now and the starting gun will be loaded ready to launch the next Senedd election.

The year ahead is going to be frantic and will pass in a blink of an eye for those involved in the looming contest.

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Political legacy

It would appear to me that the First Minister is going to have to make one key decision very quickly, and it is one that is going to determine her political legacy.

In a game of political pontoon, does she stick to her instincts of loyalty to the wider Labour Party, making the case for the chosen course of the UK Government? Or does she twist and dust off the clear red water strategy deployed successfully by Rhodri Morgan in the 2003 election?

Whatever course of action she chooses will have consequences and will split the wider Labour Party in Wales, but it seems to me that it is a strategic path that can no longer be fudged with a difficult election on the horizon.

Contagion panic

I have written in the past that I believe the First Minister has some cards to play with the Prime Minister, as a cataclysmic result for Labour in Wales next year would prompt contagion panic throughout the wider Labour Party.

If I was advising her, I would politely inform 10 Downing Street that unless certain demands are met, then the Welsh campaign next year will have to distance itself from the mother ship.

A Theresa May DUP-style £1bn bung would do, and give the Labour Party a narrative to sell to the people of Wales over the next 13 months.

Mark Drakeford, the brains behind the clear red water strategy, sits in her Cabinet as Finance Minister.

If there are no changes to the polls the First Minister has the unenviable choice of deciding between two options which are very high risk in different ways. If I was her, I would be asking Mr Drakeford to write a revised strategy – Clear Red Water 2.0.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010 - 2024