The dream of a socialist, independent Wales in the EU is now dead

The neo-liberal world order, as you put it, is basically the idea that states should spend only what they're able to raise in tax. The alternative, that states should be able to spend whatever they like while borrowing from people and institutions who should have no expectation of being paid back, doesn't end in Utopia but in Venezuela or Zimbabwe. Is that really what you aspire to for Wales? Independence for Wales will only ever work if the country is able to pay its way, which in other words means centre-right fiscally conservative policies. It's not rocket-science - these things are well known. I do agree with your main point, though, which is that potentially independent nations such as Catalonia are being held back by the debts of the legacy empires to which they currently belong. That is certainly a problem; and while I don't have a good solution to it, it's clear that the EU makes it a much much bigger problem than it would otherwise be.

I think this is a serious argument, though the issue is that EU member-states will only welcome new EU entrants when it suits them. On the broader issue, the far-left is getting the "Lexit" argument wrong. Socialist policies are possible inside the EU. But it is right to say that this has to be within a framework of a market economy. One of the parties in the Catalan government is socialistic and the state plays a significant role in the economy of Catalonia. I will keep pointing this out on this website but people are using "EU rules" or "state aid" to excuse poor governance by member-states or devolved states. The risk is that you want some kind of socialism that isn't compatible with a modern Welsh economy. Or indeed, the Catalan economy.

Whatever underlying reasons there might be for the EU not recognizing Catalunya's desire for independence the overlying one is that Spain is the EU member. The EU didn't/doesn't back a desire for a united Ireland - the UK and ROI are the EU member states and because Spain and not Catalunya is the EU member state it's not backing Catalan independence either. This would be the case regardless of the state of the EU economy. The majority of Catalans want to be part of the EU but should Catalunya become independent it could well find itself out in the cold regarding the EU. I'd say that would have less to do with the EU economy and more to do with a smarting Spain and Metropolitan minded France veto. Should Scotland become independent it's possible that they'd gain entry to the EU because firstly there'd be no messy UK EU membership status to take into account and secondly it would be a way for the EU to stick two fingers up to England. Again the state of the EU economy not being the driving factor.

and I am very happy that this so-called dream is now dead. It's so funny to see Plaid squirm and look the other way now that the EU has been exposed for what it is. Bye Leanne!

"Do Wales, Scotland and Catalonia have the strength of will and intellectual drive to forge a third path – truly independent nation-states strong enough to oppose the neo-liberal world order?" They should, but there again when did you last see a flying pig ? I can't speak for Catalonia, and Scotland is a bit of a mixed bag, but dear old Wales is blighted, not by socialism, but by a strain of pseudo-socialist exhibitionism, which only coincidentally or occasionally protects and fosters the interests of communities up and down the country. We are now blessed with cliques of political operators who are devoted to a lifestyle that is well funded by the public making careers out of posturing and empty gestures - referred as virtue signalling elsewhere. The top echelons of the EU and other global or transregional bodies are also cut from the same cloth happily trotting around bullshitting each other, and us, with not a lot of good coming out of it despite the monumental costs. Desperate really, but anyone bucking their rules of engagement is branded fascist, nazi and the rest of the default vocabulary of major bodies out to suppress any dissent.

Oops, Thatcher was right about something and Wales was blinded by hatred and all she did wrong to see it. The EU, while it has kept an unprecedented peace, a business relationship, nothing more, and they dont care about your culture. You have to depend on your self in this world if you want to survive. Socialism is merely another means for some to gain positions of power and influence by exploiting the weak, nothing more.

Why would the labour party lead a campaign for 'true independence' for wales chris? last time i checked labour in wales are as committed to preserving the british union as their counterparts in scotland. And by 'a increasingly euro sceptic labour party' i take it you mean labour under jezza caving into the xenophobic british right in supporting the ending of free movement for workers. Something which will split families of eu nationals in the uk and which places a frightening danger mark over their right to remain in the uk (among them thousands in wales who play a vital role in helping to keep our social care and health services going). The principle reason the eu was created wasnt to pursue neo liberal economics but to avoid further terrible wars in europe of the kind which broke out in the decades before the EUs creation in the 1950s. I'm also concerned you make no mention in your post of the stark consequences to the welsh economy of a hard brexit. Two thirds of welsh exports are to the single market and a hard brexit with the costly tariffs on welsh goods and the customs bureaucracy it would bring will be seriously damaging to the welsh economy. No question the eu commission's stance on spanish repression in catalonia has been deplorable but there have been significant voices in the eu parliament who have condemned the actions of the right wing government in madrid - among them the grouping of MEPs in the left of centre european free alliance. Who have not only condemned the attacks by Rajoy's government but have also called for the referendum result to be recognised. Furthermore the wet dreams of far right figures like marine le pen and nigel farage that the EU is on the brink of collapse wont be realised any time soon. The EU is likely to be around for a very long time and whether or not a future independent wales would seek membership of it we'd certainly want tariff free access to its huge single market.

The editorial team made some edits to my article- to make it clearer and fit house style- but the caveats you mention about brexit are on the original leigh. https://medium.com/@crischarliepaul/is-an-independent-wales-in-the-eu-even-realistic-anymore-8de022af614d

Enthusiasm of Farage and other falangists to break up the EU must mean something worth salvaging Eg regulating and fining Uber,Amazon,Microsoft et al.Smashing up of Greece was clear signal of the limitations/German lock-on to Euro. Most of Cymru's challenges are about carving a sensible deal out of the UK Union,or ultimately a lot more autonomy.As a country quite a bit going for it,if a tad short of self confidence,north-south rail+road and with post industrial stuff to pay for. Catalunya's dissent is heavily rooted in Spain's fragility as a nation state(similar to Italy).Failure to deal with Franco legacy at all(The Pact of Forgetting,be serious)was going to come back.The PP are pretty unreconstructed right wingers crazy enough for confrontation.Catalunya if it manages to prise itself away will make this look a lot more obvious.

Any dream of Wales using the EU as a route out of the UK would seem to be dead - except for some miracle in the emergency room. Ditto for EU as cradle for some new world economic order. The EU was born out of a better world idealism post WWII. For many the "dream" has become the stuff of nightmares #You can check out any time you like, But you can never leave! (Eagles- Hotel California) The ring of twelve gold stars on a blue background: "One Ring to rule them all..........and in the darkness bind them" (JRR Tolkien - Lord of the Rings)

"If Catalonia leaves Spain, Spain would lose 20% of its economy and the country’s ability to pay back the debt it owes would be in serious doubt. Spain could become a massive Greece that the EU could not bail out." Who says? As we started to sort with Scotland, the seceding country - does not simply disappear in a puff of smoke - Scotland/Catalunya negotiate a fair share of the debt - they then repay it. Like "velvet" (the separation of Slovakia and the Czech Republic). So, Count 1 - wrong. "The Euro would be in crisis once more, and populism would be turbo-charged as other nations attempt to bail out failing nation-states. The European project could come apart completely." And black death will return and darkness cover the earth.......No. The European project will not fall apart because there will be no economic shock by Catalunya leaving Spain and joining the EU. Or by Scotland doing this. There would be political apoplexy in Madrid and London, but Europe would not come apart. The EU countries all live by negotiation, not bullying. So they can cushion and then solve any problem. Often in a muddled kind of way, but the EU would carry on. So, Count 2 - wrong " left-wing civic nationalist movements in Wales, Scotland, Catalonia......will have to abandon the left wing aspect of their doctrines," I don't see why re-jigging Spain/Catalunya or Scotland/UK leads to this. There will not be an economic crisis because of the re-jigging, see above. Left wingers always have to think again if they live in somewhere like Wales. They always face the question of whether they really believe in countries at all. Many on the left don't seem to like things like governments, or borders, or any constraint except to ban anything they think is not "appropriate".. And they always face the question of how to pay for the public expenditure they favour. Wales after all is £15bn a year short of what it likes to spend. The answer to the £15bn a year shortfall is twofold. (1) Wales keeps a lot of its own tax revenue - eg VAT receipts, and (2) Wales stops being a Third Sector economy and fosters business seriously. Our problem is that the left, meaning Labour, don't like what's needed. It breaks up the cosy Labour "Welfare Union" by which the Labour people live. Our other problem is that Plaid, of all people, seems to tag along with the Labour line. Please don't blame the EU, and don't discourage the Catalans. The EU and Catalunya will sort themselves out. Will Wales?

Dafydd ap G i certainly do not think we in Wales should "keep working hard, be humble and be damned if we raise our hand to question anything." I am saying - don't worry about Catalunya, they are in a win-win situation. They either get independence and can join the EU or they stay in Spain with a better deal. Both are better than what they have now. - do worry about Wales. Certainly we should raise our hand and demand Statehood (US/Germany/Basque/Catalan Style) or, in the Queen's English "Dominion Status" meaning the same as Statehood. Now here is the hard part. What do we do when they say No? Do we lie down and take it (which I fear) or do we confront London. Answer - we confront London. The Assembly passes the Acts it wants. If London say they are in breach of the Govt of Wales Act,, we say "tough!". One law we could pass could be a law calling a Wales Constitution Convention, just like 50 American ones, a well-trodden route. We devise our own Constitution. London will object of course. We again say "tough!". And you and me Daf ap G sit down in the toll-booths on the Severn Bridge for 10 minutes and block the Bridge. Maybe get nicked like the good old days of Road Signgs and TV licences. Right old circus. Not-very -serious row Wales v London. It all ends with London accepting Dominion Status. England happy because fewer Welsh MPs. Labour in tears because fewer tame MPs (happening anyway with Boundary Commission changes). Nobody dies. Wales (and England) each a lot better run. But no, Daf, we would have to have a little confrontation on the way. Just as worrying for me is the idea that we should "keep working". Wales was known for grafting hard work eg mines, steel. I do worry that now we all work 9-5 in offices staring at screens we have lost the edge, work-wise. And backbone-wise. Reassure me, Daf!

I am one of a rare breed in Welsh politics. I am a member of Plaid Cymru but I have always been a Eurosceptic. The EU has no answer to the Welsh national question. I have never seen the EU as some kind of bulwark against Westminster rule. In fact, I see it as an obstacle to the self determination of all stateless nations in Europe. Plaid always played down independence. Saying it was a 19th century concept while Baltic and Balkan nation-states were arising out of old power blocks. At the same time Plaid were aspiring to become a European region like Lombardy and Baden Wurtemburg but also English regions like the West Midlands and Yorkshire. This relegation of the Welsh national question by Wales's only political vehicle was lamentable. What a flaccid and uninspiring mess - No wonder the Loonies beat Plaid in a Monmouth by-election in 1991. After Wales delivered a Leave vote, there are many in Plaid Cymru who now proudly proclaim themselves as “Welsh Europeans” but I can only find in the EU’s structures and sentiments the thinnest gruel on offer. This has been demonstrated by recent events in Catalonia. I have been disgusted at the level of violence used against the Catalans while they attempted to vote in their Independence referendum. The silence of the EU on this matter has been deafening. Not even the mildest criticism of Madrid has emanated from the labyrinthine corridors of the EU. However the EU have been quick to mull over possible sanctions on eastern European countries for various infringements. This is not the first time the EU have taken the side of a member state capital. In the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum - Jose Manuel Barroso, The President of the European Commission at that time added to the Project Fear campaign by telling Scots that it would be "extremely difficult" for an independent Scotland to join the EU. Fellow Commissioner Viviane Reding from Luxembourg stated in a letter to a SNP MSP that on the occasion of Scottish Independence - EU treaties would no longer apply in Scotland and it would become a "third country" under the provisions of Article 49. - I believe this threatening anti-democratic stance by the EU made a difference to the final referendum vote. I take no pleasure in pointing out that the stateless nations of Europe are on their own as they struggle for power against their respective state capitals. The EU's stance has not been helpful to the causes of Scotland and Catalonia. The EU has proven anti-democratic tendencies and will to try their best to snuff out any outbreak of democracy on the continent. If small member states like Ireland, Denmark and Greece are pushed about and forced to re-take referendums then the stateless nations of Europe are of no consequence at all.