The bottom line: Plaid Cymru must make gains

Plaid's problem is that it tries to compete with Labour in defending Wales' interests. A laudable object, but impractical. I suspect many Welsh people want to see a redistribution of income by higher taxes on the highest paid. Labour - in government - can deliver on that. Plaid can't. I suspect Wales would like to see a reversal of the botched Universal Credit arrangements. Again, Labour can deliver. Plaid - unless there are major changes to the devolution settlement - can't. And the same is true of other things which would "defend Wales' interests"; nationalisation of rail, scrap Trident, end the energy cartel, stop bombing the Middle East, brexit negotiations with the EU, etc. But where Plaid does have a huge advantage, which it doesn't use, is with constitutional issues. What sort of relationship do Welsh people want their country to have with the other countries of these islands? Plaid has allowed unionists to take the high ground by scaring people with the word 'independence'. I've never once heard Plaid come back forcefully with a vision of a co-operative group of self-governing nations working in equal partnership for the common good. I can scarcely think of anyone I know in Wales who disagrees with that ambition. And achieving that constitutional settlement is the key to having a meaningful voice in the decisions taken in Westminster. Plaid should raise its sights higher than having 3, 4 or 5 MPs who possibly might - if there's a hung parliament - squeeze a little influence with the hundreds of Labour and Tory MPs who surround them on the green benches.

Great detailed 'meaty' analysis.

You say 28% swings dont happen in General Elections they did in Scotland & one day will in Wales. More likely to be preceded by Assembly surge but one day a straw will break the camel's back. Plaid will be a force to be reckoned with. The question is when. It took 70 years for the national party of Scotland to live up to its name. The Party of Wales will be one day its Government. I hope its soon. Cymru Am Byth

Problem with Plaid is... well lets take a look at their manifesto for the election... They are protecting our identity... they say it on the first page than that was that. Which identity is that? Welsh language? Culture? History? All of the above? Because a lot of people still feel they're the Welsh language party. History defines our country, defines a static identity which we all share... The Blue Books, Owain Glyndwr, Capel Celyn - but I don't see Plaid making that central to their campaign - and we're talking acts throughout the last 600-900 years which show this relationship with London has never really changed. Best thing for Plaid is they do not capitalise... because they will carry on trundling along like they have for thirty to forty years rather than making the changes they need to actually make the meaningful progress that the SNP have done in that time. Language, Culture, History. All one thing: our identity. Promoting one without the others is utterly futile. Promote them all and you've got yourself one nation and one people regardless of class and political alignment.

I'm not sure how the Cardiff local government results could be described as disappointing. We had a huge load of new candidates who achieved a 77% increase in vote in Cardiff West. We also got more votes than Labour as an average in the constituency. We won 3 seats, but are crucially now second in a further 20. We are also in striking distance in a further 5 seats. We are developing city wide now, not just in the West. Who could have imagined that 10 years ago? Cardiff Plaid will go into the next Council elections with a realistic chance of being able to win outright control; if and it is a crucial "if" , we can continue the growth and progress we have seen in recent years. We take nothing for granted and will make sure we succeed by sheer hard work, combined with a continued clever political strategy.

In terms of the complex interchangeability of votes, having just voted for Jonathan Edwards, I know someone in this constituency who had been a lifelong Labour voter, but lost confidence in them. So he switched to Plaid over the last couple of elections for various things. It was the natural party for him to switch to - a Welsh speaking Welshman, Welsh to his bones in other ways, he automatically switched to Plaid, especially as it is strong in the area. But for this one he is saying he will vote for the Tories. When I asked why, his reply was a shake of the head and "Oh, that Leanne Wood!". He isn't the only person I know to have expressed such opinions. Now, one can either laugh risibly at him, calling him an idiot, saying he is thick, that Leanne Wood is marvellous and what on earth does he think of Theresa May - or acknowledge that Leanne Wood is not a universal vote winner. I would never vote Tory, but when Labour does badly, the Tories do well- there are people who switch between the two. And if Plaid are unable to hang on to voters even such as he, in this area, then maybe there is something wrong with the party. The Labour Party does not have the natural right to have people vote for them simply because they are Welsh and care about their country and community - neither does Plaid Cymru. They both have to earn it. In terms of pushing the nationalist rhetoric, as mentioned in the article, one often gets the impression that Leanne Wood is more concerned with being seen as an effective leader of progressive politics rather than being seen as a pusher of nationalist rhetoric – and that someone like Adam Price is more concerned with being seen as a prominent political thinker by some British/worldwide elite than in pushing nationalist rhetoric. Thankfully, Jonathan Edwards is such a good MP that his position in this constituency is, I believe, assured. A man who can speak intelligently, forcefully and succinctly- and who doesn’t shy back from nationalist rhetoric. He is, however, head and shoulders above most people in the party (not a surprise - this is not to do down Plaid Cymru, there are very few good MP's in any party), and he would make a damn fine leader- the best, head and shoulders above anyone else (now that Helen Mary Jones is not, at the moment, an option. And I'm not sure Neil McEvoy is leadership material - damn fine though he is to have as someone fighting for Wales, horses for courses.) But I have no idea if Jonathan Edwards has any ambitions in that direction. I hope so.

Nice clear analysis and interesting responses. I am so very fond of Plaid that I joined them. Only time I have joined a party and might be the last. I never used to be even though I am a Welsh-speaker, a republican and believe in "a co-operative group of self-governing nations working in equal partnership for the common good" first and Independence as an inevitable function of the devolutionary process. I joined last year post Brexit because of the absolutely appalling way the Labour Party failed. It saw a Tory Prime Minister resign, the lead of the Brexit team resign and could have forced an election and won it hands down. Instead it got bogged down in a war for the leadership that could have had the same exciting and politically lethal outcome as a season of Game of Thrones but for their utter incompetences and their inability to read how the people of Britain were feeling. So I joined Plaid Cymru because we all do need to mobilise ourselves and it seems to me that the relationship with England has reverted to pre WW2 imperialism. Others may disagree. I don't really care. It's what I can do and I do rather think that the UK is terminal and do not want to end up as a country that doesn't exist or part of a protectorate run by a neo-Nazi , kleptocracy next door. What is true about this is the opening and close of the piece. We do need to win and win well. We need to decide whether the Labour Party in Wales will die of its own indifference or needs to be killed. The SNP were more ruthless but they could see that Scottish Labour, full of heroes of mine was becoming increasingly irrelevant to the people of Scotland and those who would normally have voted for a progressive social democratic party with welfare and culture at its helm. Plaid isn't doing that. Leanne Wood is fantastic at what she does and most of my English friends wish she'd join the Labour Party. Her analysis of the Tories is right but we are not facing down ignorance. We live in the ruins of Thatcherism every day. We are fighting the wrong war. "Language, Culture, History. All one thing: our identity. Promoting one without the others is utterly futile." yes and for those of us who don't have Welsh as a language our culture has to show a proud Trade Unionist past and a cultural heritage across the world because we are not all Welsh speakers, we don't all live in rural communities and we don't all have to send our kids abroad because they have no jobs and nowhere they can live. but we do share all our cultures. At the moment we don't have a leader taking on Labour in Wales. Without that we're shafted. The Assembly gives us a Labour Party with "clear red water" between it and Westminster and the analysis is right. Plaid cannot make solutions in Westminster unless there is a coalition and four or six Welsh MPs is movement in the right direction but it's not enough votes to force Westminster to devolve more to Wales and split the UK tax take fairly. I reckon the immediate aim is to establish Plaid as a party that stands up for Wales in Westminster and has serious ambitions to govern Wales. To do that we have to replace Labour as the go to party with commonsense economic and social policy working to grow a common culture for the good of all. That's achievable.

Fantastic article. However I think there's one massive elephant in the room- the Plaid leadership. LW winning Rhondda is a great achievement. But apart from this, we've been fairly stagnant in terms of results elsewhere. I therefore feel we need fresh leadership... somebody more charismatic (AP?) with LW as deputy maybe??

Appreciate the article. If you love Wales, Plaid has a future no matter what the election result. It is not optional, as other parties are. You can hate the rich and join Labour or fear the populus and join Tories or hate Europe and join UKIP and so on. Love of the land and the people is not a choice, it happens. However I also feel Plaid need a step change to prosper. Plaid has an embarrassment of potential leaders, unlike other parties whose embarrassment goes the other way. My view is that the party is too tiny and it needs to join that great strand of the people who think and care about the future. Not everyone bothers to, but there are enough of them to run a country, if their collective wisdom and energy were unleashed and coordinated.

I’m a Plaid voter through and through and also consider myself a ‘progressive’. But the trouble with Plaid is that they see their main opponents as being the Tories. They aren’t. The places where Plaid needs to make gains are in Labour seats and Plaid must start positioning itself as being anti-Labour, which has run Wales into the ground (much more so than the Tories) in a century of arrogant misrule. Unfortunately, Plaid spends 3 or 4 weeks in an election campaign attacking Labour but then spends the rest of the 5 year term cosying up to them in the vain hope of creating some sort of ‘progressive alliance’. By painting the Tories as the common enemy, Plaid buys into the whole wasted vote narrative that sees their own vote squeezed. If the most important thing in this election is stopping the big bad Tories from winning then Plaid is almost inviting people to vote Labour. Plaid have a fear of being branded ‘green Tories’ so they insist on engaging in a political willy waving contest with Labour of ‘we hate the Tories more than you’. This means that they give up any chance of attacking Labour consistently and miss opportunities to do so from the centre or even the right (the Irish example shows how independent countries can use taxation policy for economic growth). The SNP positioned itself as being firmly anti-Labour and adopted centre/centre left policies to do so. Their attacks on the Tories were mostly cultural, successfully branding them as ‘un Scottish’. My son is voting for the first time in this election. He supports Plaid, voted for them in the locals and will do so again in Assembly elections. But in this election he has bought into the line that stopping the Tories is all that counts and so intends to vote Labour. Plaid needs to show why voting Labour is as unpatriotic if you’re Welsh as voting Tory is.

My question, before I comment is, who is Jason Morgan?

Plaid in Llanelli dumped their local organiser Sean Rees, and imposed Mari Arthur, the result being several Plaid have not campaigned for her.

Plaid Cymru - the Party of Wales? For too long Plaid has claimed to be the party of Wales, while demonstrably failing to connect with the majority, or even a significant minority, of the populace (look at the percentage of the popular vote that Plaid has secured at historic General and Assembly Elections). The local elections can be viewed as favourable (increasing support as Neil McEvoy rightly points out) or disappointing (given the backdrop of a then-imploding Labour party). However, the latest YouGov poll, for what it's worth, puts Plaid on 8% of the popular vote next Thursday - which would be the worst result since 1987. Plaid needs to decide what it stands for and what it wants to be. Is it a nationalist party pushing for independence (the rhetoric here seems to have softened over the past few years)? Is it a party exclusively for Welsh speakers (a characterization that seems to be hard to drop)? Is it an alternative to Labour, or to the Conservatives? Is it something else? The messaging this election has been consistent and clear: Plaid is the party for everyone who wants to make Wales home, be they Welsh-born or not, Welsh-speaking or not. On this last point, I think it needs to be stressed more clearly that Plaid in not a party of language, as this is a perception that persists. Equally importantly, I don't think that Plaid should shy away from the goal of independence. The YouGov poll for YesCymru demonstrated that not only is support for independence stronger than previously supposed, but that it is cross-party, cross-generational and across-geography. To me this is the clearest way that Plaid can differentiate itself from Labour policy-wise (at least until Welsh Labour formally separates from English Labour and is whipped and votes accordingly). Plaid needs to better understand why Labour voters, who should intuitively share a large number of common values, are turned off by Plaid, despite Wales being the poorest nation in Western Europe under their watch. It needs to leave its bubble, break out of its traditional heartland and away from its traditional base, and work on appealing to a broader demographic without alienating its core support. Plaid should be in it for the long-game, taking a strategic view of building sustainable, sticky support over years and decades in order to build a fairer, more equal, independent Wales. If it happens sooner then fantastic, but they should plan for a long campaign.

The local organiser in llanelli has failed in several elections. Why should he stand?

Plaid Cymru is either a national and a nationalist party or else it's just a regional socialist party, forever reaching out to other 'progressives' at the expense of Wales and Welsh identity. It's been the latter for too long. If the choice is replacing Plaid Cymru or losing Wales then the decision should be easy.