The 2020s can be the decade of the Welsh independence movement - if it learns the lessons of the 2010s

The 20s will be a decade of opportunity. A new political party in Wales will be born, linked organically to the communities our members live in. The kind of communities with no political representation acting in the Welsh national interest at present. Welsh Labour is not a political party. It is a marketing ploy for unionist UK Labour in Wales. Many of us are looking forward to taking the message to the streets the doors, the pubs and places of social gathering. We can continue in servitude or give others the confidence and belief that we can stand on our own two feet in a democratic, Sovereign Wales, where our people are truly sovereign.

I see Maen Beuno defaced. I see Sir Gâr mourning the Queen and turning Blue. I see a woman's second home's assured Dolgellau has fallen, and I see Machynlleth's bridge under flood. I see YesCymru infiltrated by spies trained in the dark arts at Catraeth. I see hope in Y Rhondda. I see a lonely man in Gwent beginning a book of resistance, unpublished, which will echo for centuries. I see the banning in the Bannau. I see an assassination beyond the bridge of Santes Tecla. I see splintering and bickering in Wales.

People will vote for independence if they feel happy to do so emotionally and physically. Meaning they are happy to secede and feel secure economically and socially for themselves and their loved ones in a society underpinned by the rule of law. The key arbiter will be economic good health so what is the economic model independence proponents are endorsing? Don't say pie in the sky 'green deal' stuff which relies on massive taxpayer subsidy (which brings in the problem of selling Welsh debt in the markets, what currency etc?). We need independence campaigners to demonstrate Wales is economically viable as an independent state. This is the problem the SNP have in Scotland, their high tax, anti business, green 'let's cover the country in forests and wind farm' rhetoric means a large reduction in per capita GDP, ie poverty.

Hear hear Ifan

The lesson of 2019 is that independence will never be achieved by Plaid Cymru alone, or by Plaid Cymru and tightly controlled offshoots. In fact, the mismatch between those interested in independence and those prepared to vote for Plaid Cymru suggests Plaid Cymru is holding back the movement for independence. Progress will be limited for as long as some are allowed to insist that the movement for independence must be socialist, and must focus on 'woke' issues. With those who disagree with them being 'fascists'. This takes us down a very narrow alley when we need the broadest possible route to independence.

This decade we need to focus on social mobility, aspirationalism and the Welsh Language. What's the point of independence if you can't come from a poor background, wear English suits, drink french wine and take it for granted that when you get drunk and arrested for public disorder, that from arrest to the court, everybody is speaking Cymraeg?

'Any political movement that wishes to succeed must first of all listen to the people and find out what they want.' 'Those less successful parties have insisted on ideological purity first and then tried to sell that complete package to the voter – take it or leave it. And the voter has, unsurprisingly, always chosen to leave it.' 'We can be as ambitious as we like in our desire to build a better Wales but if we’re unrealistic about what Wales currently is and what the people of Wales actually think, we will fail.' That feels like a sound foundation for a political programme. The danger for visionaries and prophets is that they storm ahead, the prize before their eyes, heedless, even unaware, that even those unconvinced but possibly open to greater conviction are still well behind them, watching their retreating backs with uncertainty and bewilderment. And the radically unconvinced just dismiss them as nutters! (Which is surely at least one of the factors underlying Labour's drubbing in the recent Westminster election.) I think there's a risk of putting the cart before the horse. When I first came to live in Wales back in 1964 the devolution which we now have seemed inconceivable; it was barely spoken of, let alone anticipated. I was still living in Wales in 1979 when the Labour government's devolution proposals were given an overwhelming 'thumbs down' by the Welsh electorate in the referendum of March of that year, and at that point it seemed to me if anything even more inconceivable. Yet of course the cause didn't expire; it just went dormant for a while, only to revive again with the New Labour proposals two decades later, and that time it squeaked through by a whisker. And now, two decades later, devolution seems to be an accepted part of our political furniture. If anything, the 'nutters' now are the 'Abolish the Welsh Assembly' party! But being accepted doesn't mean, in hard reality, that our devolved institutions are that much valued by your average Welsh voter. Which leaves me with the sense that the priority should be consolidating and increasing the powers which what we already have in Wales - something which voters do seem to favour - before we storm ahead in pursuit of more, running the risk of leaving bewildered or cynical voters behind. There hasn't yet been a Senedd election which has motivated 50% of qualified electors to turn out and vote. Until that changes, and we have found more out as to what people actually do want, too much talk about total independence is premature: 'cart before horse' stuff.

I've written an article calling for a political coalition in Wales here: https://twitter.com/TalkAboutWales/status/1212010696743014400 I'm starting to wonder whether it would be a good idea for Welsh Labour to detatch itself from UK Labour and form a new coalition in Wales alongside Plaid Cymru, Welsh Liberal Democrats and Welsh members of the Green Party. If common ground can be found on the constitutional position e.g. A Welsh Nation State in a British Confederation of States, and further on a policy programme e.g. Social Democratic and economically Keynseian with a pro-business approach balanced by strong support for workers protections. Such a party could strongly defend and build upon the current governance of Wales, moving towards a State in due course. It could also help pull Welsh Conservative members' focal point back towards Wales instead of Westminster and re-orientate their view of Wales, making them more pro-Wales instead of championing their homogenising "One Nation" ideology. We need to stop labelling the desire for better governance of and in Wales as "Nationalism." It's democracy, pure and simple ... yes I'm looking at you here Welsh Labour?

Good thought provoking article. However, I worry that taking the entire 2020s (a decade!) as a target will simply delay things while Wales becomes more and more a dying colony. The current. exciting dynamism must not be lost - independence must be at the top of the agenda, and action soon! Be warned! The supposed process of devolution can be easily reversed and that is what we are likely to see. So, let's not mess about. - no more middle steps, improving devolution, devo max and all the other paraphernalia; its only independence that matters!

Great satire.

Yet again we are told we have a U.K. government Wales did not vote for. But we did! Ninety percent of people in Wales voted for unionist parties. People can not then complain at a being governed by a unionist government. We must and can change this. Trying to turn unionist Labour in to a nationalist party is not the answer indeed is a futile waste of time. Supporting Plaid Cymru is also a waste of time, Plaid is stagnant. It had three MPS and a higher share of the vote in 1975. It has become a narrow, clique, run entity, run by an out touch politburo more interested in throwing activists out than gaining power. I welcome Neil McEvoy's comments above and look forward to the creation of a new party that works in communities and supports freedom of the individual, communities and freedom for our country. The 2020s should be a great decade of hope and progress for our country. Cymru Rydd! Blwyddyn Newydd Dda! Happy New Year!

I almost pity the regular collection of obsessives on this blog, have you no families or hobbies to occupy your minds?

The the main focus of the independence movement in the 2020s should not be whether or not we can economically survive independently but achieving the passion for self determination. We all need to build up the passion, amongst the people, for Independence. Not possible ? Look at Brexit when has the economy benefit really been analysed? It's largely been ignored with metophores like 'take back control' and 'get brexit done' thrown at us instead. Why should the Welsh push for independence be any different? We now need wide spread public consultations with our own Welsh independence metaphores to build the passion needed.