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Opinion

Scotland cashed in on Westminster fear. Wales can too.

By Mark Mansfield
When the referendum threat grew sharper, Scotland was rewarded with new fiscal powers.

Owen Williams

When Scotland voted for the SNP in 2011, the ground shook in Whitehall. For the first time since devolution, the UK State looked at its northern border and spied secession.

Suddenly, Scotland wasn’t a region to be managed but a country that might just walk away. And when realisation hit, chequebooks opened.

It wasn’t generosity. It was fear. Fear that without concessions, without money, Scotland would slip away. Because fear is the Union’s greatest motivator.

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Scotland’s payoff

The numbers speak for themselves. According to the Treasury’s Country and Regional Analysis 2022, identifiable public spending per head was:

● £13,881 in Scotland

● £13,401 in Wales

That’s a gap of over £450 for every man, woman and child in Scotland compared to Wales – over a billion pounds every single year.

And when the referendum threat grew sharper, Scotland was rewarded with new fiscal powers. The Scotland Act 2016 devolved income tax bands and rates, half of VAT revenues, and major welfare powers.

These weren’t gifts; they were bribes to hold the Union together.

Scotland learned a lesson: frighten Westminster, and it pays out.

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Short-changed for decades

Meanwhile, Wales was left fighting for scraps. As far back as the Holtham Commission (2010), independent experts confirmed that the Barnett Formula left Wales underfunded compared to need. Their verdict was stark: Wales was being short-changed by hundreds of millions.

But nothing changed. Not until 2016, after years of pressure, did Westminster concede a “funding floor” to stop the gap from widening further. And even that came grudgingly – not out of fairness, but because the unfairness had become politically embarrassing. Westminster didn’t act because it cared. It acted because it was afraid of the noise.

Why 2026 matters

This is why the 2026 Senedd election isn’t just another election. A strong Plaid Cymru vote wouldn’t only shift the politics of Cardiff Bay – it would send shockwaves down the M4. It would force Whitehall to reckon with Wales in a way it’s never had to before.

Let’s be blunt: Labour votes don’t scare Westminster.

Conservative votes don’t scare Westminster.

But a surge for Plaid Cymru frightens the hell out of them. Because Plaid represents a Wales that won’t sit quietly, a Wales that might one day walk away. That’s leverage. And leverage turns into cash.

The lesson from Scotland When Scotland scared Westminster, it gained billions. Not in slogans, but in hard fiscal transfers and devolved powers that still shape its budget today.

Wales deserves the same.

Labour’s loyalty to “the Union” has won us absolutely nothing.

Quiet obedience has kept us poorer than our neighbours.

Put simply, a vote for Plaid in 2026 isn’t just a matter of principle. It’s a matter of prosperity. It’s the way we force Westminster to pay attention. It’s the way we unlock the money Wales is owed.

Fear makes them listen. Fear makes them spend. Fear, properly channelled, is worth billions.

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61 comments

Chris Hale

Northern Ireland £14,062 per capita spend Squeaky wheel gets the grease syndrome? We need to make more noise!

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David

Sinn Fein and an Unifide Ireland.

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Rob

Northern Ireland has always been a political headache for London. If reunification happened tomorrow, most in Westminster would quietly breathe a sigh of relief, although they would never admit it. They have a have a better deal than Wales because of their peace settlement. For London it’s really the Union of Great Britain that matters, which is what they’re determined to hold together

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Philip Evans

Spot on time to stand up Cymru.

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Dr Jonathan F Dean

The Crown Estate was devolved to Scotland as a bribe to stay in the union in IndyRef#1

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Steve D.

I think it'll only be until Cymru votes out - basically for independence - that the British government will start throwing some real money and offering the devolution of further powers. However, that will only be because it fears losing the renewable energy resources Cymru has - wind and water power - and not because it fears the breakup of the UK. By then though it will be too late.

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smae

I don't think we'll need to wait that long, if the polling starts showing a swing to out that usually makes the government nervous enough to start throwing money at the problem. The same was with Scotland really, Scotland has many resources that the UK wants/needs in order to sustain London. Wales is slightly more important because of the River Severn which will cause various diplomatic issues if Wales became independent that would prompt early concessions. But this all depends on us voting for Plaid or for other pro-independence parties.

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Undecided

Interesting article; but I’m sceptical. Westminster might be frightened of a Plaid government; but the most we are going get is a rather fragile Plaid led coalition or minority administration (courtesy of the daft new voting system which Plaid supported). Westminster would be more frightened of a Reform Welsh Government - but I don’t advocate that.

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Rob W

I don't think Westminster would be frightened of a party that simply wants to turn Wales into a region of England (many "Welsh Labour" MPs would likely be secretly delighted with the thought of that!). There'd be no motivation to give us anything under those circumstances.

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Undecided

I agree (I wasn’t clear in my original post). UK Labour would be frightened by Reform success in Wales and the implications for the next General Election; but that doesn’t extend to giving any Reform led Welsh Government an extra bean. However I’m not sure it would be much different with a Plaid led administration, propped up by the rump of Welsh Labour. One thing is near certain - no one is going to win an overall majority.

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In reply to Undecided

Fenton

London Labour should be throwing a few bones this way to head Reform off at the pass. Perhaps an M4 bypass, electrification of the mainlines, dualling the A470 and half price energy for a year.

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In reply to Fenton

smae

Dualling the A470 isn't feasible in my view. Having recently traveled from Cardiff to Holyhead, the A470 is not what you would consider an actual artery when compared with something like the Fosse Way in England. It would involve a massive multiple billion pound project cutting through some of the most picturesque places we have, including Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons. (Sorry, I cannot for the life of me remember/spell the Welsh names off the top of my head). The Heads of the Valley's project would look quaint in comparison having taken 23 years to complete, covering about 28 miles and the costs came in at around 2bn. To do the same for the A470 would take 20bn minimum and would likely take a 100 years if not longer. I think it'd be a worthwhile investment myself but... cost effectiveness is not great...

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In reply to smae

Fenton

I wouldn't propose a motorway grade upgrade like the A465 but there's plenty that could be done in terms of straightening and widening the route, bypassing villages and alternating double lanes to allow regular overtaking opportunities without full dualling.

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In reply to Fenton

John Ellis

In fairness, parts of the A470 have been improved to a pretty good standard. But some other parts are utterly dismal - especially the stretch south from Builth towards Brecon. When I go that way I prefer to take the B4520 road across the hill country, via Upper Chapel. Not very wide, but shorter by distance; and usually traffic- free so you don't get stuck for miles behind some lorry.

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In reply to Undecided

Rob W

I largely agree with that. Realistically, the best option would be a minority led Plaid Cymru government (a bit like the first SNP government led by Alec Salmond) after next year's Senedd election. Whether that will be a realistic possibility after all the results have been counted, only time will tell.

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smae

This new daft voting system will mean that more voices in Wales will be heard rather than over-ruled by a minority. It's not right that 20% of people can vote for Tory and 80% vote for anyone but and the community has to put up with a Tory rep because no other party got more than 19%. I'd much rather have my second choice in power rather than the party I least likely want to be in power.

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Bryce

But what's behind the fear. It's that England, alone, would fall apart without Scotland and Wales to other. It would soon revert to the seven petty kingdoms, forever squabbling like rival Gemanic tribes. But even that's not what keeps Whitehall up at night. The real problem is that the era of the Etonian cabal hoarding all the wealth and opportunity on this island would be over.

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Y Cymro

For far too long we in Wales have naively put our faith in Labour to fight our corner. The sad reality is. They threw in the towel a long time ago. They've never really had our back. UK Labour in London are centrist through and through. They are not only Anti-Welsh but Anti-Devolution too. They think of Wales as an appendage of England not nation on its own right. We have their disdain a proof. Just look at their pointblank refusal to devolve our criminal justice system even though numerous Welsh Labour Governments have been elected since 2011 on a manifesto pledge stating their wish for policing and criminal & youth justice to be devolved. All the other nations of the UK control their policing and justice systems but Wales is denied. When Scotland sent 47 SNP MPs to Westminster, the English establishment were stunned. The SNP were not only in government at Hollyrood but now had a powerful voice at Westminster too. The Tartan tornado struck fear into the heart of Whitehall giving Scotland leverage when it came to further devolution and any would-be independence referendum. Wales had neither. No voice, no power. We were Whithall's whipping boy. You find in life the ones who shout the loudest get heard. Labour whispers for Wales where Plaid Cymru would roar if given the opportunity to prove themselves in government. See , it's no good voting for parties who only have their own self interests at heart not Wales. The power has always been in our hands to Jake the change needed. We've just not realised it. So it's time to put Wales first for once . It's vitally important that we elect a Plaid Cymru Welsh Government led by First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth next May. And in four years time must send a powerful Plaid Cymru team to Westminster led by Liz Saville Roberts to fight for our rights not fail like Labour.

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Rob W

Indeed, and I think one of the first things Rhun ap Iorwerth should do as First Minister is to call an advisory referendum on whether Wales should be handed the same powers as Scotland enjoys. Of course, Westminster could ignore a Yes vote, but it would be signing the death warrant for "Welsh Labour" MPs at the next general election if they rejected the wishes of the people of Wales.

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Gerallt Llewelyn Rhys.

That could only happen if Wales was a truly independent country. The problem is as far as I can see no party is pushing for that.

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Undecided

I don’t know for sure; but I assume Rhun ap Iorwerth as FM would have to secure a vote in the Senedd to call an advisory referendum? Can’t see that happening with a unionist majority nailed on? Not even sure Plaid would propose it? No sign of it featuring in their manifesto?

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In reply to Undecided

Rob W

I'm not sure about the Senedd rules on Referendums either. If a simple majority would be enough, then I would be surprised if any LibDems or Green members voted against one, as they always claim to be strongly pro-devolution. Labour MSs also claim they want Senedd powers to be strengthened, so it would be a bad look for them to vote against a referendum that could strengthen the institution's powers.

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In reply to Rob W

Undecided

Well, the Lib Dem’s and Greens are only likely to have 4 or 5 seats between them on a good night. Even if you are right and Plaid got 30 or so, they would still be well short of a majority. Relying on Welsh Labour is usually the road to nowhere. Just can’t see it.

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In reply to Undecided

smae

This is the thing, Plaid are a nationalist party, such things are implied and would be expected. In fact the media would run articles about it, if Plaid don't try such things. Even if Plaid go down the route of 'surprising' everyone and demanding it, they would 'expect' for London to refuse it, which would naturally rile up Wales just as it did when the SNP were turned down when they called for one originally and tried to hold their own internal vote. A few years later and the UK government was forced to allow it. Ultimately the SNP 'lost' the vote but it changed the nature of the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK. The whole playbook has already been carved out by the SNP, Plaid only need to follow it step by step. Although preferably without the protoge sticking a knife in the back of the party leader!

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In reply to smae

Undecided

Yes, but do Plaid have the courage of their convictions to actually do it (rather than talk about things being over the next rainbow but one)? I don’t see much evidence of it frankly. I think they would be frightened of losing such a referendum and I would be surprised if it appeared in their manifesto. Hints, suggestions and implications are not enough.

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In reply to Undecided

smae

What's the point in overtly promising something you can't deliver without Westminster approval? They'd be bashed for not delivering it and it would politically backfire. Better to pull a mid-term opportunistic stunt that paints Westminster as not listening to the people of Wales rather than looking like you've over promised and under delivered and aren't fit to govern... does it sound like an election winning strategy?

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In reply to smae

Undecided

Not really. Sounds like they would be engaging in hot air. The dynamic at the minute is anti Labour rather than pro anyone else in my opinion. Doubt whether such stunts will fool the majority.

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smae

That would be... actually a really good idea and would certainly be mandate affirming. It would also give Welsh Labour MPs the ammo they need to fight the right wing part of the Labour government as well.

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In reply to smae

Peter J

It would cost about £8 million to hold a non binding, advisory referendum. Reform and Tories will probably tell their voters to ignore it (eg catalunya) and reduce its legitimacy so only maybe 60% of the voting public turns up. Not sure this would be a good use of public funds

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In reply to Peter J

Rob W

It would be rather hypocritical of the Tories and Reform to oppose a referendum after they had previously backed the spending of nearly £130 million of public funds on the Brexit referendum back in 2016.

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In reply to Peter J

smae

If 60% of the voting public turn up, that would be a hugely persuasive referendum. Turn out of the Brexit Referendum was 72% of those registered to vote and it turned out to be politically impossible to ignore despite the vote being just 52% out and 48% in. Breaking it down to constituency level that means 406 voted leave and 244 voted remain according to the best estimates we have available. Unfortunately only with a turn out of less than 20% could it be argued that a referendum holds no weight, after all there have been many elections putting people in power with turn outs in the single figures and they were deemed acceptable. So whether it's a good use of public funds depends on the value of democracy, do you want a train and hire a nurse or two for a few years or do you want a referendum even if it's only advisory on where the country should be going over the next 50 years? More over, if that advisory referendum can get Westminister to devolve further tax powers and/or the crown estate, would that make it worth it?

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In reply to smae

Peter J

I should have phrased as "60% of the potential voting public". Yes your right, of that only about half at best would turn up. To be honest, I've never heard anyone outside of this forum, or not a political nerd, talk about crown estate devolution.

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In reply to Peter J

smae

That's more because most people have no clue who pays money into the tax coffers and how. They largely just care about the stuff they pay. Fuel Duty, VAT, income tax... council tax. Once you say things like if we had the crown estate under our control we could probably build and full staff a hospital out of it, people suddenly come around to the idea... or they assume it's already under Welsh control. The number of people who don't understand which issues are and are not devolved is staggering.

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Garycymru

The Union has been dying for decades, which is perfectly normal. All empires eventually crumble, and the British one needs to stop grasping at straws desperately clinging on for relevance. It's long overdue that Wales leaves these chains of the Union and thrives. Yes, everyone will moan about the clowns in our government, but with independence they would be OUR clowns, for us to elect. The British government detest Wales, they want our language and our culture wiped out. Its overdue that Wales stops being robbed and abused by criminals from Westminster.

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Rob

We cannot expect to gain anything as a nation unless we first have self-respect, something which many of us too often doubt in ourselves. Scotland showed that when you stand tall and demand recognition, Westminster listens. Wales will only be taken seriously when we have the confidence to believe in ourselves, act like a nation in our own right, and stand up for our right to be a nation.

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Peter J

This wasn't my experience working with BEIS at the time. In fact I can think of projects and money was redirected or favoured towards England and Wales during this time by th civil service. Actually, I think it really marginalised Scotland, as basically the SNP were largely ignored at Westminster by departments like BEIS. Cameron was quite good to Scotland post referendum and ran the smith commission which devolved more powers. If you think this will happen again in 2026, you're living with the birds. By the same token, if reform lead the government (which is looking increasingly likely) , so you think they will roll back devolution? The supreme court ruling changed the dynamics around independence significantly. Westminster holds the cards I'm afraid

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Fenton

In summary, the London based staff ignored their official UK-wide remit and focused on their own patch? That's an abuse of power.

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Peter J

Now now, that's not what I said and quite the extrapolation. The civil service serve the elected government and remain politically neutral. They dont 'take orders' from opposition but they don't ignore them either. They certainly listen and monitor the opposition which has some influence, but that's not an official responsibility. What I saw was how that diminished under the SNP post referendum. Specifically, I remember a large BEIS investment which really should have gone to Scotland being spent elsewhere in the UK. Voting SNP or plaid is to 'scare' Westminster is nonsense especially after the supreme court ruling, which was a spectacular own goal by the SNP. One of the big problems at Westminster is how small parties tend to sink below the water. With exception to the DUP, I can't think of any party that influenced government policies in the last 40 years

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In reply to Peter J

Fenton

"a large BEIS investment which really should have gone to Scotland being spent elsewhere in the UK" By elsewhere you mean London? Just as electrification to Swansea was cancelled in very the same week Chris Grayling green lit a third London Crossrail project that benefited his own constituency? How is this not an abuse of power?

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In reply to Fenton

Peter J

No it actually went to Wales instead

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In reply to Peter J

Fenton

There needs to be a legal obligation for central government to treat all regions and nations equitably (not just equally) including a binding dispute resolution process and independent auditing.

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In reply to Fenton

Peter J

That's a recipe for disaster. If everyone knows they get funding without trying, guess what happens? (see WEFO spending of ERDF) Competition is good, it gets people to plan, prepare business cases, think cleverly about problems

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In reply to Peter J

Fenton

How about your boss applies that to your salary.

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In reply to Fenton

Peter J

I am my own boss 😂

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In reply to Peter J

Fenton

Imagine you had a boss who decided to cut your salary this months because they didn't like what you were spending it on.

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In reply to Fenton

Peter J

Well I don't have to. As the owner of a business, I know no serious manager would use the policy of allocating public infrastructure funding as a method to pay my employees. This is a surreal and frankly daft conversation. And it any case, what you're describing in your last message is a totally wrong analogy anyway

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In reply to Peter J

Fenton

It's an analogy for pork barrelling. Of course it's absurd.

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In reply to Peter J

smae

The Green Party tbf, it affected the Conservatives under David Cameron when he pledged that they would basically be the greenest party ever (I paraphrase) and it basically helped kick start renewables in the UK. Then there's UKIP... they got their job done spectacularly considering they hadn't actually won a seat at any general election (as far as I recall, though they did occasionally have MPs) The SNP were not a huge party initially, but has shaped how politics work in the UK and continue to have significant impacts. Lib Dems brought us the AV referendum which we for some reason rejected. So yeah there are plenty of small parties that have influenced government policies and not all of them have needed MPs to do so.

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In reply to smae

Peter J

One of the principle reasons renewables has been such a success in the UK is, in my view, there has always been a cross party consensus. Both sides knew the benefits (environmentally, economically and for national security). And partly as a result of this, we are the leading nation in the G7. It's a lesson to all those nationalists on all sides and people like kemi and jenrick who just want adversorial politics. Working together in the national good is hugely beneficial and get things done

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Peter J

The other important dynamic in this Is the fact that plaid have insisted on no referendum to independence in the foreseeable future - to my knowledge the first nationalist party in history to not want an independence referendum.

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Fenton

Not in the next Senedd term, is all they've said.

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Peter J

Would you 'fear' a nationalist party that only wants to be nationalist in 5 years time? And then can't run an independence referendum without the permission of potentially a reform Westminster government anyway?!

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In reply to Peter J

Fenton

Opposing the UN's right to self-determination isn't a good look for Whitehall. It'd be much better to bribe the natives to avoid this if it looked like a goer.

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In reply to Fenton

Peter J

Hmmm. Under international law, the UN will not consider self-determination to grant a unilateral right of secession to groups within an established, democratic state, unless there is severe oppression or denial of political participation (see Catalunya). This charter applies to colonies in Africa, Caribbean etc

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In reply to Peter J

Fenton

That sounds more like someone else's determination than self-determination.

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In reply to Peter J

Undecided

Absolutely agree. Liz Saville Roberts’ latest shrug of the shoulders and Rhun ap Iorwerth sidestepping like an outside half isn’t going to frighten anyone.

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Adam

To be fair, I can see their logic. Whoever gets in next year will still have to help Wales recover from the Tories and Labour damage. I think a referendum would be far more successful if the party pushing for it has had at least one effective year in office.

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Peter J

That's a fair point, and for the record, I think Rhun ap Iorwerth has said the right thing for someone in his position. But conversely, given the next 3-4 years looks especially grim for WG finances, many public services are almost certainly going to be in a far worse state by the 2030-2031!

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smae

Nope, the SNP did it first in 2007 and Ap Iorwerth has basically said "not the first term" which is exactly what the SNP said, it instead focused on a White Paper first (2010 according to the manifesto). So Plaid is roughly following the SNP playbook. Should Plaid win, we are likely to see it focus on good governance in the first term and if they win a second term they'll probably advocate for a referendum then. Sometimes you need to prove yourself first before you can go to the public with: "We can govern and I say we should be independent".

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Rob

I don’t think a Welsh referendum would be winnable until after Scotland has gone first. When that happens, two things become clear: first, Scotland’s resources and its strategic position will give it real bargaining power with London over things like currency and borders, setting the precedent for Wales to follow suit. Second, the Union as we know it will end, and Wales will be left with a stark choice; independence or becoming little more than a part of England. That’s why I believe Plaid Cymru shouldn’t just be calling for parity with Scotland, but parity with everyone else. Northern Ireland already has stronger autonomy through the peace settlement, and even England has it; London wears two hats as both the English capital and the UK’s parliament. This isn’t simply about nationalism, it’s about fairness and respect. Because let’s be honest: what rationally minded person thinks Wales is better off being run by our neighbour rather than be treated as an equal partner? We are the poorest country in Western Europe, with the weakest level of autonomy in Europe too. Those two facts are not a coincidence. Until we stand up for and demand equality, nothing will change.

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In reply to Rob

Johnny

Why wait for Scotland! Wasn't it Plaid Cymru that set the wheels in motion with Gwynfor winning in Carmarthen before the SNP even got off the ground. Plaid have said from the outset that they would have to win 2 consecutive Senedd terms before there is talk of a referendum. Scotland at the moment are nowhere near securing a second Indy Referendum and who knows Cymru could even get Indy before Scotland.

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The Union has been dying for decades, which is perfectly normal. All empires eventually crumble, and the British one needs to stop grasping at straws desperately clinging on for relevance. It's long overdue that Wales leaves these chains...

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