Rhun ap Starmer? What does the leader of Plaid Cymru stand for?

Jonathan Edwards

In a matter of months if is highly likely that Rhun ap Iorwerth will either be First Minister of Wales or Deputy First Minister, depending on whether Plaid Cymru manages to secure more seats than Labour at the Senedd election.

Considering that Mr ap Iorwerth’s most notable act since becoming leader of Plaid Cymru was to end the Cooperation Agreement with the Welsh Government, some would argue that it would lack ideological consistency for Plaid to come to any sort of arrangement with Labour after next May.

However, the next Senedd will inevitably, it seems, consist of a strong contingent of Reform UK Ltd Senedd Members, meaning that the current protected fencing duel between Plaid and Labour will cease once the election is over. I do continue to have my doubts, however, about how sustainable it will all be if Labour aren't the dominant partner. A Labour Party going through deep soul searching having lost its fiefdom is highly unlikely to be particularly stable.

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Listening tour

Mr ap Iorwerth this week started a listening tour of Wales. It would appear to me that the grid planners in Plaid have dusted off the wrong strategy paper. Last year should have been the performative ‘listening’ tour, and this year in advance of the election the ‘vision setting’ tour.

Mr ap Iorwerth has many strengths. He pulled Plaid back from imploding when he assumed the leadership. Plaid members should thank their lucky stars that he had made the shift to the Senedd from the BBC, or the party might not have made it to its 100th birthday. When Adam Price was decapitated by his own group and the NEC, there was no one else to take over apart from Mr ap Iorwerth. The party was in free fall. He has stabilised matters and has got them to a position where on a fair wind they could win the election. This is a considerable achievement.

His biggest strength is his communication skills. A confident performer, his skills will be tested to the full over the next few months. Some of his interviews can be sketchy when confronted on detail, but Plaid have no one in the same class as him.

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Welsh patriot

He is also a genuine Welsh patriot. Although one of his other first acts as leader was to park the party’s core aspiration of more political power for Wales. On a side note, the only real prospect of constitutional advancement for Wales in the next Senedd is a Labour government propped up by Plaid on the basis of a new Government of Wales Act being the price of servitude.

The notion that Mr ap Iorwerth as First Minister will be able to rock up in 10 Downing Street as First Minister and demand more powers is for the birds, unless Labour consider a shift to triangulating Plaid and the SNP on the national question as mission critical for the next general election.

I would suspect however that Labour by that stage will be in complete panic mode at the prospect of a Reform UK Ltd UK British election victory and could conceivably therefore go in the complete opposite direction and pursue a Westminster first hyperdrive policy.

Returning to Mr ap Iorwerth, if he has a weakness however it is perhaps that he isn't the most policy driven of politicians. This apolitical approach has inevitably helped him settle matters within Plaid Cymru as his chameleon approach has been unifying for the party.

But as the Don of Welsh political academia, Richard Wyn Jones, writes this month in Barn, the travails of the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, should be a warning to Mr ap Iorwerth. What works in opposition doesn't necessarily work in government. In defence of Mr Ap Iorwerth, unlike Sir Keir Starmer, he clearly hasn't been captured by a faction in his party and used as a delivery device.

Furthermore, he hasn’t decided to define himself by purging his party of the left-wing faction. Indeed a sizeable number have won selection battles across the country and will be elected next May. On this point, some of my former comrades accuse me of overblowing the factional splits in Plaid. And it is true matters seem much calmer at present; however, I am not convinced that the Plaid left have now become team playing ap Iorwerthite apolitical converts. Post election events will inform I suspect.

Reform UK

This week’s Guardian interview didn’t really help the public understand why Mr ap Iorwerth wants to be First Minister. The only interesting revelation in the interview came when asked why he was aiming all his guns at Labour while ignoring Reform UK Ltd. Mr ap Iorwerth was of the view they would “fizzle out”. Now obviously I have no idea whether he believes this or not, but considering Reform’s current poll rating and seat projection his position could either be characterised as clueless, complacent or arrogant. I’ll let Nation readers take their pick.

Reform UK Ltd pose the biggest threat to devolved Welsh governance since the 1997 vote. They could be the largest party in the Senedd from May. Right wing populism in whatever guise seems entrenched in Western democratic politics. Plaid Cymru and its leader need to have answers about how they are going to defend Welsh political nationhood from the gathering storm by providing a counter vision that can grasp the imagination of the nation.

The forthcoming Plaid annual gathering at Swansea in early October will be a landmark moment not only for Mr ap Iorwerth but in the history of the nation. Can he use the platform that he will have on that weekend to convince the nation that they should finally place their collective faith in the national party? To succeed he will need to persuade the sceptics and undecided that there is substance that people can buy into.

As Keir Starmer’s fate has proven, after reaching high office is not the time to try and work out what you want to achieve with the power and responsibility of government.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24