Reopening the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth railway line - the economic case doesn't stack up

If the roads were improved then the case for exclusive funding of even more bus services would dominate the debate. However Wales Gov is adamant that spending on roads is some kind of taboo so making it a bit easier to run regular reliable buses with feeders from likes of Tregaron, Llandysul, Castell Nweydd and Aberteifi will be off the table for ever. So Prof Cole get on with twisting Lee Waters' arm because his head isn't picking up on the problems with his present policy position.

So that's it... For a country world famous for its rail network, to not image outside the firebox is once again small beer thinking... Telford, himself, recognised that railways were going to be a lost leader and in truth only the heritage lines pay and then with help from the volunteers. It is treasure of a different kind that is created...

Mean while all the major European economies are upgrading the railways and looking to increase the movement of freight from road to rail, and investing in electrification. The UK stand alone as the only economy in Europe who insist the railways turn a profit, and do not look at them as a means of transport for people and goods for the benefit of society as a whole. The money saved on road building and less emissions from less road traffic eventually benefits the whole of society.If it is good enough for Germany, Spain, Italy, France, all of them own the railways, why not Cymru.

You've given the case for what was and what is now but not what could be. Are there any models which predict what would happen to local economy if rail network was invested in? If the decision making tree goes as "there isn't sufficient activity here - the costs now are too great - we shouldn't invest here," then you're ignoring that the final outcome which inevitably is "activity will struggle to grow here." I'm not saying that considering this will make investment in this line worthwhile, arguably buses are the way forward rather than trains due to growing climate emergency and how our rail tracks already struggle in the heat, but parroting Westminster's line for not investing in Wales isn't all that.

Despite this, a railway is still necessary, a north-south corridor is vital. Let's be real, nobody will take this article seriously.

How many countries have a railway system where, to get from one end of the country to the other, you have to travel via a neighbouring country? Where is our national pride? The Aberystwyth-Carmarthen line would be a component of a Cardiff-Bangor link, so would be used by passengers making a variety of journeys between south-, mid- and north Wales. If this is seen to be a convenient way to travel for work and leisure, it will soon increase in popularity - like the recently restored railway from Edinburgh into the Scottish borders.

The railway in Mid Wales did not break the Manchester Ship Canal monopoly. The Ship Canal was the end stage in various projects aimed at freeing East Lancashire and its cotton industry from the extortionate tolls and charges of the Mersey Docks and Harbour Board. One mid Victorian estimate was that it cost 25/- a ton to send calico goods to Calcutta of which 19/6d was the cost of getting it onto the ship. The 5/6d was the cost of the rest of the journey! The Manchester Ship Canal opened in 1896. There is an Illustrated London News picture of the Lord Mayors of Liverpool and of Manchester paying homage to Queen Victoria. Liverpool looks anxious and Manchester is grinning like a Cheshire Cat. The southern part of the railway from Llanybydder on seems to have been used to carry cattle and other livestock from a railhead. The Aberaeron branch opened in 1912 as I recall. My Mamgu had a day off school to celebrate. It had been opposed by the mariners who believed it would destroy their trade. It never extended to Llanarth and New Quay as intended and stopped short of the harbour in Aberaeron. The whole railway did have some use for tourist specials - I have seen a poster for a miners’ holiday special to take holidaymakers from Newport and South Wales stations to Pwllheli on holiday for a fortnight. Likely you would need that time to recover from the journey which took about 12 hours or three thermoses.

I just remembered.What everybody is forgetting here, is the fact we have been told, by Labour and Tory UK Govs and by Labour in Cardiff ( Mark Drakeford Nov 2022 to Al Jazeera news), that we have a unique geogrgraphy in Cymru, that makes it almost impossible to build a railway, south/ north. If we 0nly we had the terrain of say, Switzerland or maybe Nepal or India, it would be oh so simple, and we would already be travelling by train. Silly me.

whilst the article talks of viability, consideration should be given to tourism. Allow the Gwili Railway society to have the land to develop the railway at a pace that is sustainable. Again we hear of the East - West divide. How about upgrading the Hart of Wales Line. Extending a metro System up the Amman Valley and around to the Swansea Valley. This would then give a choice to commuters between 20 mph traffic congestion and a modern train commute.

Mid and West Wales is always going to come last in these situations, sparsely populated and remote. The focus is always going to be where the people and (therefore the votes) are. Which is why the UK is ruled for the primary benefit of South East England, the same principle applies in Wales (I'm surprised nobody has yet called for an independent Powys, give it time). Having said that, the TrawsCymru bus service is vastly superior just about anything you'd find in England these days. I frequently make use of it, you can have some good days out and the fares are very reasonable.

The line connects all the former colleges of the University of Wales and a number of other Universities as well. In this time of low carbon travel policies the education sector alone will generate traffic not previously considered. This is not just for academics. Whole sports teams can get drunk and still travel home with sensible weekend timetabling. The whole public sector has low carbon policies. Beyond that, Aberystwyth becomes a much more viable destination for All Wales meetings and conferences. This will damage Llandrindod but the consolidation will generate new rail traffic for Welsh conferences in general. Restricting traffic analysis to that generated on the line itself will severely underestimate total numbers. What about Builth Road to Moat Lane Junction as an alternative? Longer journey times, less traffic generation but cheaper?

A good deal depends on exactly what criteria are used for assessing the economic case. For instance, would the line take traffic off the roads and if so what value would be gained in reduced pollution, accidents, etc? Such externalities are often not figured in to conventional calculations of value but they affect all of us. Would the line have to be built to mainline standards, which are very expensive? A line built to light railway standards with a reduced speed limit could still offer a journey quicker and more convenient than driving, especially in the tourist season when the highways are filled with slow traffic which does not seem to understand how to drive on Welsh country roads. An agreement with the Gwili railway over shared use of the trackbed could almost certainly be reached. The North Yorkshire Moors Railway already shares the use of part of the Esk valley line to enable it to run through trains to Whitby. This is just a matter of sensible negotiation and goodwill on both sides.

How can linking one side of the country with the other not be economically viable? Granted those living in Bangor or Llandudno would continue to use the Cardiff - Shrewsbury - Wrexham - Holyhead service, but this would connect the North West of Wales with Carmarthen and Swansea. It would also give residents of Lampeter, Tregaron and Caernarfon access to the rail network. Furthermore exactly how is reserving rail infrastructure in Wales in your interest if your a Unionist? If it was devolved and the Welsh Government came to the same conclusion as this article, then we wouldn't be able to blame the lack of a North-South rail link on the English or the Conservatives then would we?

Dr (Lord) Beeching was quite adamant that his terms of reference precluded him from at anything other than the economic aspects of British railway operating.. itay well be that so social and environmental.cpnsidetstiomd lead to different conclusions.

A Carmarthen -Aberystwyth rail link would be nice but as Professor Cole says it's not economically viable or justifiable. If built the only real beneficiaries would be tourists from outside Cymru and travel card carrying pensioners taking trips. Building a modern nation requires better use of resources than spending on the methods used and in reality overused by the Victorians.

Provide the link between Carmarthen station track end and Glangwili hospital halt and full restoration is possible and viable. Cofiwch Aberystwyth University exists because poor people raised funds to get a better education for their children so they would not live on in colonial poverty for perpetuity Provide the link and the people will come

Of course it doesn't stack up. Question No 1: how much would it cost to build? TfW have already proved themselves hopeless at sums with the Cardiff Metro which is already going to be nearly 1/3 over budget. Question 2: Would it be economically viable? No and for the same reason the line was closed in the first place: it services too few centres of population. Question No 3: Could TfW run it efficiently like the rest of the Welsh network? Err: that word just isn't in TfW's vocabulary. Let's take today as an example: virtually NO trains running in West Wales, and TfW unable to source buses for a replacement service. And this is not untypical: Llandovery has has just four days since last November on which all the trains ran and were on time. Pathetic isn't it

This is a typical bean counters argument. What about the service to the public. If economics was the test there would be no buses or trains as they are all subsidised.

Gleaned from various internet sources The TrawsCymru bus service from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth via Aberaeron leaves every hour from 6.05 am until 7.05pm the journey taking two and a quarter hours with 18 recognised stops on route. The train service from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth via Tregaron left three times a day 6.10am, 10.35am and 5.50pm the journey taking approximately two and half hours with 16 stops on route. A transport service already exists for Carmarthen - Aberystwyth which is significantly better than the old train service was or a new train service could be. Unless you're a railway romantic it's a no brainer especially if a small fraction of the costs of reinstating the railway line was spent on improving the experience and popularity of the bus service.

Aberystwyth was one of my university choices. Its remoteness was the reason why I went elsewhere. If the argument that a place has too little *current* economic activity to be worth investing in then you are really insisting it should remain a backwater indefinitely. The Welsh Government really should have the balls to try to develop areas outside of Cardiff.

I agree with Stuart that there is no economic case for the re-opening of the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth [heavy] rail line, but there is a strategic one. Although standard economic analysis may (or may not) adjudge the investment in Cardiff's metro as 'beneficial', it is likely to have been based on false and unsustainable premises - specifically, that commuting and the growth of the city are to be encouraged. Post-independence (and post-growth), Cymru will need much enhanced north-south links within our borders. One of these should be a coastal rail link. Buses are not adequate, not popular and could never permit the ride quality or efficiency of steel-on-steel. Reduced car ownership and use will require an alternative all-weather means of ensuring access and basic mobility beyond that can be provided by e-scooters and e-bicycles. Truly light light rail (LR) is the solution. Not only for inter-urban routes but within towns, particularly connecting those with no current rail (HR) access. The real transportation issue in Cardiff is not about 80 000 people coming into the city during the morning peak but about the 250 000 moving around within the city by wholly unsuitable means with a huge environmental and safety impact. Changes in work patterns and the advent of the leisure economy will further reduce commuting as working at or near homes (including in hubs at rail or tram stops) becomes more prevalent. LR can operate on roads with track sunk into the roadbed where no right of way exists. Powered by electricity (perhaps utilising supercapacitors), which Cymru is already producing far too much of, the trams (LRVs) could be manufactured here. We have steel, we have the design and engineering skills. Only the policy and leadership are lacking. As for 'how do we pay for it?', Keynes said (1942), "anything we can apparently do we can afford" - without inflation. The power of a sovereign fiat currency is virtually unlimited (though the resources required are not), and surely creating a sustainable low-impact means of transportation within our country must be a medium-term priority for our longterm future. And it should be free for residents.

Build it and they will come....

This is absolute tosh. Supply precedes demand. There is no-one to use the line...because there is no line. And to use the economics of the 19th century to justify this ridiculous state of affairs is pitiful. It's this kind of small time thinking that makes Wales utterly insufferable, devoid of hope or ambition. Stuart Cole needs to gracefully retreat from public life, and enjoy his retirement.

No mention of the three universities it would link up. Apparently nine miles of toy railway provides economic benefit but a proper, full-length one won't. No mention of what earthworks and cuttings remain along the route. They must hand out professorships like sweets if this is the tripe they come out with. I note he's a CBE too, probably a stooge of the Brit State to give voice to their desired outcome.

Coming to this debate a bit late but I recently drove from aberystwyth to Carmarthen and it was a pain. B roads, stuck behind lorries, difficult driving, it's clearly a national dividing line. The article above is a great example of the art of pessimism. I recall similar pieces about the Scottish borders line which has resulted in the rebooting of the towns it reached. Anyone can talk a proposal down but actually, the opportunities is presents are huge and cannot be over estimated. Business will capitalise on this new line and the whole area with will able to breathe Check out the Swiss way of doing things. The line from visp to chur is narrow gauge but not a wee hobby set up. Powerful dwarf locomotives haul ver6 comfortable and competent tra8ns on a bang on time service. Narrow gauge gets you round tight curves and reduces the costs of lines. Good modal interfaces mean freight and passengers move smoothly and with near zero delays. Wales needs to be brought together, north and south. This will help Wales be Wales