Reform's humbling in Caerffili and the online bots

Ethan Jones

Make no mistake, the Caerffili by-election result is an embarrassing defeat for Reform UK. A humbling. Given the coverage in the UK media and activity across social media, in the lead up to Thursday’s vote, you’d be forgiven for believing it was a foregone conclusion that Reform would win.

Indeed, this is what polling showed just days in advance; a stunning Reform victory was imminent and seemingly inevitable.

Llyr Powell, the former political employee of the Russian asset and ex-Reform UK in Wales leader Nathan Gill, looked set to become Caerffili’s representative in the Senedd.

So sure were Reform that Nigel Farage seemed to spend more time in south east Wales than in his Clacton constituency. Zia Yusuf painted a confident picture across the UK media. The vast resources thrown at this by-election by Reform had done it.

The angry online right was already doing a victory lap with their laughing emojis and hollow talking pints. Reform thought they had it in the bag and behaved as such all campaign.

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Rejected

Then in Caerffili Leisure Centre during the early hours of Friday morning, reality hit. Plaid Cymru's Lyndsay Whittle had won. And it wasn’t even close.

On a huge turnout, for a Senedd by-election, the people of Caerffili firmly told Reform that they had been rejected. Farage, who had arrived in Caerffili with his victory speech ready to go for the TV cameras, turned tail and vanished into the night.

Yusuf desperately tried to spin a humiliating humbling into being some sort of moral victory and Llyr Powell looked like he wanted the earth to open up and swallow him whole.

If, like me, you’re a bit of a Welsh politics nerd, you’ll notice that Reform’s online Facebook army is unusually quiet.

For weeks this online mob has polluted any article or prominent post on the topic with their abuse, laughing emojis and blatant political illiteracy of "Plied," "Welsh speaking Liebour" and "something, Nation of Sanctuary, something something."

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Blatant

It is quite blatant that a substantive number of these accounts, on Facebook and X in particular, are bots. Yes, there are loads of genuine real people that support or are sympathetic to Reform; I’m not denying this.

But the bot element is very active and not very subtle. You’ve all seen them; usually adorned with profile pictures of British bulldogs, Enoch Powell, Winston Churchill or AI generated nonsense adorned with the UK flag.

In the lead up to the Caerffili by-election these bots were everywhere, trying to close down opposing views, abusing Caerffili’s Ukrainian refugee community, spreading misinformation about the Nation of Sanctuary policy and ranting about 20mph speed limits or simply contributing "vote Reform" ad nauseum.

This toxic online environment, particularly on Elon Musk’s racist sewer of an online echo chamber and Meta’s Facebook, is designed to shut down other views and disillusion you into giving up.

But bots can’t vote. Neither can many of Reform’s supporters with a sudden big interest in Welsh politics.

I’m a bit of a saddo, so on one Caerffili by-election news story Wednesday evening I waded through the Facebook comments section and took a tally of pro-Reform commenters locations; not one in Caerffili.

Yes, a fair few purporting to be in various parts of Wales, but over half with their location set in England. Anecdotal and far from scientific, I know, but I found it interesting.

Free speech

I think it is the case that Reform’s online keyboard warriors may be numerous but this isn’t proportionate to their localised on-the-ground support in Wales.

It is very clear, in my opinion, that this bot activity is designed to set the talking points for the real-life supporters to pick up and run with. Is this run directly on Reform’s orders or is it an independently directed operation? I don’t know, I’m just asking questions. Free speech, Nigel.

Heading into next year’s full Senedd Election it is crystal clear what these points will be; Nation of Sanctuary, 20mph, immigration and Plaid=Labour. I fully expect that, as a direct result, this election will be the most divisive and toxic yet.

We owe it to our communities, especially those demographics targeted by Reform’s policies and pronouncements, to stand tall like the people of Caerffili and say it loud and proud that the vast majority of Wales supports compassion, decency and empathy rather than hate.

We must all remember that, whilst Reform does command significant support at the moment, there are much more of us who haven’t been sucked in by Farage’s MAGA-style snake oil, than those that have.

Blame

Simple answers to complex issues and being given an "other" to blame is seductive politics for many, history consistently shows us this. They will win seats, a lot of them.

Reform will have a substantial presence in the next Senedd and I fully expect it to be a bigger clown car operation than the 2016-21 UKIP Senedd Group was.

But we, the voters of Wales, must do our bit to ensure that the other parties significantly outnumber Farage’s lackeys on our new proportional system. It is within our power to lock the far right out of government.

Next year’s election is very different to all those devolved elections that have preceded it. Gone are the days of Labour’s domination. It is now a choice of decency and normality or Farage’s division and toxicity. Wales will see a battle for its very soul next year.

Ignore the bots and trolls. Keep countering with facts and reason with the Reformers in your life, do your bit. We must take heart from the people of Caerffili and not surrender to Farage’s brand of Trumpism.