Reform: Easy scapegoats for Wales' failure to speak its own language

Stephen Price

News from earlier this month that the number of Welsh speakers is in decline has come as no surprise to anyone.

What was surprising to me, however, was the number of Welsh speakers Wales currently (or should that be supposedly) has.

The survey, carried out by the ONS, was released on 3 July 2025, covering April 2024 to March 2025, and makes the bold claim that Wales has 828,600 speakers.

A stretch perhaps? I'll leave that to you.

Whilst these figures are optimistic to the point of being completely meaningless - no heads will roll if they're wrong, after all - the 2021 census showed the lowest proportion of Welsh speakers ever at just over half a million people, something that makes just a little more sense.

The 2021 census figures show Wales has a population of 3,107, 500, out of whom, 538,000 aged three or above speak Welsh (17.8% of the population) compared to 562,000 in 2011 (19% of the population).

Dr Huw Evans from Cardiff University wrote at the time: "But although the Welsh Government regards the census as ‘authoritative’, things are not as clear cut as might first seem. Census returns are self-reporting, and a respondent has to assess if they, and others on whose behalf they respond (eg, a child aged three), are Welsh speakers.

"In many cases this will be obvious, but may not in others (e.g., concerning an adult learning Welsh as a second language). Because of assessment inconsistencies between respondents, honest responses might produce differences in respect of people of similar linguistic ability."

Convenient for the Welsh Government, however, the latest figures from ONS mean we've only got a few more people to download DuoLingo, with its gamification of language that just isn't getting the results it oughtta, and we're there - we've got a million speakers (none on my street, nor the street below, and no Welsh medium high school in my county and one lowly Welsh medium primary nearby with seven English medium ones on offer, but who's counting?)

Only.. wait for it..

If we don't achieve this figure (on paper, not in any meaningful way out in the wild) it's the Reform Party's fault!

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Senedd election

A new poll on voting intention for next year’s Senedd election puts Reform UK in the lead, with 28 per cent of the vote, followed closely by Plaid Cymru on 26 per cent.

The exclusive More in Common survey for Sky News saw Labour’s vote share among Welsh voters fall to 23 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Welsh Conservatives find themselves on 10 per cent.

According to the projection, less than half (48 per cent) of Labour’s 2024 voters would back the party in a Senedd election today.

Farage's opinion on the million speakers' target is nothing new - he made his point crystal clear back in April.

And, with that being largely overlooked, it hit the press again in late June when Reform UK posted a video with Clacton MP Farage saying: "Tell me a single government target that ever gets met?

"I'm bored with government targets - we are going to half this, double that.

"None of them ever get met. So encourage the language, yes by all means. Put out meaningless targets? I can't frankly see the point of it.

"We've had decades of this, new governments, governments half way through.

"Targets, targets, targets. Not a single one being met - and no one believes them anyway."

He's got a point, and even without him holding any power in Wales, he's still somehow the man with all the power, whilst we, ladies and gentlemen, have none. Or do we?

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Disappointment

Responding to the latest fall in Welsh speakers, a spokesperson from Cymdeithas yr Iaith shared: "The results of the Annual Population Survey are extremely disappointing as they show a continuous fall in the number of Welsh speakers.

"In the past, the Welsh Government has referred to annual surveys in order to avoid criticism for the disastrous results of the 2021 Census. These results should be a wake up call for the Government to use the remaining nine months of the Senedd term to act, and stop dragging its feet, as it has been over the past few years.

"Ten months after the publication of the Commission for Welsh-speaking Communities' report, which carried out two years of detailed research and analysis, the Government's response to it did nothing more than confirm that current plans will continue and say that further discussion and research is needed. We need more than that to tackle the housing crisis in areas which have traditionally been Welsh heartlands.

"The Welsh Language and Education Act - which received royal assent on Monday 7 July - was far too weak and lacked statutory targets in order to drive change and achieve the Government's own aim of giving the Welsh language to all children through the education system.

"Rather than ensuring an Act that will make a real difference when it is introduced, the next Government will have to return to it and add a statutory target for giving Welsh education to all children.

"We also encourage the Government to reverse the recent decision to drop the promise to establish a Broadcasting and Communications Advisory Body for Wales which would start the process of putting broadcasting powers in the hands of the people of Wales."

The Welsh Government says: “We’re working on a wide range of actions to achieve our aim of a million Welsh speakers by 2050, and to increase opportunities for people to use their Cymraeg.

“This includes the recently passed Welsh language and Education Bill, our response to the report of the Commission for Welsh-speaking Communities, the second phase of the Commission which is looking at the Welsh language in areas with fewer Welsh speakers, free Welsh lessons for 16-25 year olds, and increasing the amount of Welsh language technology that’s available.”

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Welsh education for all

The problem with blaming Reform for any harmful impacts that might befall the Welsh language is that it takes the blame entirely away from current and previous holders of power, but also, and perhaps infinitely more importantly, any blame countered at the Welsh public.

The latest schools census from 2021 shows that there were 440 Welsh medium schools at April 2021, with 110,142 pupils (23%) being educated in Welsh medium schools. This is a motivated choice, both on the part of the Welsh Government and the Welsh public.

Welsh schools are there if we seek them out, on our doorsteps or a free bus ride away, but for whatever reason (location, reputation, prejudice, worries over support and so on), fewer than one in four families are opting for it for their children.

The Welsh Government could, of course, overcome these barriers better, but if we really want our children to speak Welsh, we quite simply can.

Supply and demand, it's not rocket science.

If more of our children demand Welsh schools, oversubscribe at Welsh schools, the resources will follow.

Why we collectively continue to deny our children the language of their own country and the cognitive and economic benefits of bilingualism, I will never understand.

But I certainly won't point fingers at the Reform Party for the measly 23% of children currently being educated in Welsh, and the sleight of hand figures that are fooling no one, and that can change with the wind depending on who's asking or responding to a questionnaire.

If we want to point fingers at why Wales won't meet the one million speakers target, it's time to start looking in the mirror.

And if we want our language, and our culture, to survive, the only meaningful way for it to happen is for our children's education to be fully bilingual from day one.