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Opinion

Peak Farage

By Mark Mansfield
Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle. (L) Photo Andrew Matthews/PA Wire. ‘Zohran Mamdani in May 2025 Photo by Dmitryshein is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

Ben Wildsmith

Until recently, we might have struggled to draw a comparison between Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru’s victorious candidate in Caerphilly, and Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected Mayor of New York.

Superficially, I suppose, they don’t seem to have a great deal in common. Mamdani, for instance, doesn’t even have a lucky red jacket.

These two surfers of the international zeitgeist, however, have turned Abertridwr and Astoria into the frontlines of resistance to Trumpite populism. Perhaps a twinning arrangement could be instituted…

Interviews with Mamdani voters told a story we heard from Whittle’s supporters a couple of weeks ago.

‘He seems to feel our struggle,’ said one. ‘He’s from the community.’

As his opponents relied on ideological scare tactics – ‘He’s a Communist!’, and religious bigotry, ‘An Islamic Communist, the worst kind of Communist there is!’ – Mamdani focussed on bread-and-butter issues that determine the quality of people’s lives.

Pledging capped rents, and free access to childcare and public transport, he correctly identified the stuff that makes life in a city so difficult for people on ordinary wages. These are issues that exist in three dimensions, away from the online fantasies of confected culture wars. Aside from the professionally exploitative, they unite the working population.

The politics of unity seemed to be a distant memory just weeks ago. With Trump dominant across the Atlantic, and Farage seemingly on an unstoppable course for Downing Street, division was bearing fruit around the world.

Formerly moderate centre-right politicians like Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick were leaping into the MAGA furnace with abandon, so convinced were they that the tide had turned that way.

Keir Starmer’s flag-heavy presentation began to emphasise the concerns of the popular right to the exclusion of all other topics. The economy could sort itself out,

‘It’s the boats, stupid.’

Tik Tok

Nigel Farage, glinting with golden dust acquired in proximity to Washington’s Sun King, could see society falling at his feet. Gen Z, he told us, were for Reform UK. They, unlike the past-it Millennials, appreciated Nige’s Tik Tok rizz.

Look at them now. As soon as it became clear that hardly any young people had voted for Welsh Dave in Caerphilly, his boss announced that Reform would cut the minimum wage for young workers.

Far from shifting the demographic boundaries to create a new populist coalition of multigenerational voters, it seems that Reform will be scrapping over the same miserable old sods that Labour and the Tories always have.

Labour, annihilated in Caerphilly and seemingly facing an imminent economic meltdown, are dancing for their political lives. Wes Streeting tweeted out Mamdani’s victory speech, calling him ‘inspirational’ and noting ‘lessons for progressives the world over.’

Mamdani’s speech explicitly offered socialism as the cure to New York’s ills; he even namechecked Eugene Debs, who contested the 1920 presidential election from prison.

It is unthinkable that Streeting, and the rest of Labour’s ideologically nondescript careerists, would have been queuing up to endorse Mamdani even six weeks ago. Certainly, the mayor-elect would have been expelled from the PLP, if not the party, for his views under the current leadership.

Finished

So, we can divine from that the current leadership is finished. Labour’s more instinctive politicians are shuffling leftwards at a rate of knots so as not to go under the same bus that is hurtling towards Starmer and Reeves.

Away from media pundits and social media platforms, the conscientious majority of voters are beginning to make themselves heard.

The ceiling for populist right politics seems to be at around 35% of the electorate. If voters organise tactically around opposing candidates, that isn’t enough to win power here or in Westminster.

The winning ticket is locally focussed, optimistic, and disciplined. Whisper it for now, but we may have passed peak Farage.

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19 comments

Steve D.

Early days but people do seem to be organising themselves - even if it does not appear to be coordinated - in stopping the far right. Whether that be Trump or Farage. However, progressives can not rest on their laurels - some battles may have been won but the war against the far right is far from over.

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Amir

Religious bigotry: making islamist sound like terrorist. Mainstream media is always quick to mention the Islamic identity of a mad man with a knife or a car hurts people and then say it was because they were a muslim they hurt all these people. But when a muslim saves people lives, puts himself between the killer with a knife and innocent civilians, then they only mention his name. Samir Zitouni, I pray to Allah for your speedy recovery. You are a true Muslim hero. Aameen

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John Ellis

Are there any real communists left at all? Maybe, just about, in Cuba, Viet Nam and Laos. Certainly not, these days, in Russia or in China, even though the ruling party in the latter, against all empyrical evidence, still claims to be 'communist'. But there simply aren't any 'Islamic communists'. The phrase is a contradiction in terms.

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Mab Meirion

However 'Islamic Socialism' is a thing...

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John Ellis

D'you think? It certainly once was a thing, back in the day, personified by Gamal Abdul Nasser when he was Egypt's president, though the term generally used at the time was 'Arab socialism'. But I've always felt that its failure to ultimately deliver led to the growth of Islamic political movements, pioneered by the 'Muslim Brotherhood'.

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Mab Meirion

I know a chap, he practices it (and preaches it)...

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Fi yn unig

I am with you all day, week, month, year, life and ever long on this one.

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Y Cymro

I think the Welsh public are begining to reject the far-right ideology of Reform UK and that Plaid Cymru are a Welsh Government in waiting.

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Richard Lice

"Time discovers truth." You can only drumbeat "Wales is broken,Wales needs Reform" so far when offering nothing yourself. Wales is waking up to the empty wrapper that is Reform. Let's hope the teenagers recognise that Farage is no friend to them Kent has been thrown up as Reform's flag ship council A template for others Fast disassembling into chaos

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Fi yn unig

After a quarter of a millennia of Cymru rejecting Tories, why are we being led to believe that our people would choose their bloodlusting, hate driving, violent, racist, anti Welsh, Trump/Putin loyalist, traitor freak wing? The disassemblers are disassembling themselves daily in front of our eyes everywhere they pox.

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Felicity

The far right succeed by manipulating emotions, progressive parties must have a narrative that stimulates hope in an unequal world.

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Barny

"The ceiling for populist right politics seems to be at around 35% of the electorate. If voters organise tactically around opposing candidates, that isn’t enough to win power here or in Westminster". A very big IF unfortunately. It's difficult to imagine Your Party giving way to the Dems. The best chance London Labour has of surviving in some form and not gifting power to the RefCons in 2029 is to reform the voting system. Reform themselves demanded PR after Starmer took back control so they couldn't possibly complain.

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Jeff

Farage protects a racist MP that said "it drives me mad when I see adverts full of black people, full of Asian people" and Farage protected an MP that violently beat his girlfriend and uses Tate as a source of "facts" for kicking off riots (Tate a really hateful person) and fronts for a self confessed women abuser and adjudicated rapist and convicted felon (Trump). He also protects Kruger after his comments on LGBTQ and 30p is attacking disabled people and then we have his councils selling off care homes in very dubious circumstances and so on. I know next to nothing of Mamdani apart from the far right hate hime because basically the far right are what they are. What has he done?

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Tim Morris

It's a curious dilemma. On the one hand, Farage has chosen the right messages, identifying the widespread discontent (and even anger) at how successive governments have treated people over the last decade. Concerns about politics, corruption, incompetence, waste and widening inequality are all significant concerns for many people. Much of this forms the core of his messaging. At the same time, though, there is something about him that disturbs. It's hard to put your finger on it completely. It's a vague unease, a sense of distrust. He tries to sell himself as someone set apart from mainstream politicians, yet it is hard to see him as anything other than part of the political establishment. Part of this may be his background. Hailing from a relatively affluent family in the Home Counties, an alumnus of an expensive private school, his work outside politics as a city commodities trader, all combine to undermine his 'man of the people' schtick. His lengthy presence on the political stage further weakens his anti-establishment credentials. It doesn't help that many of Reform's candidates and politicians have defected from the Tory party. Given the disdain with which that party is now held in this country, their presence is deeply unsettling. So are the views held by many of these ex-Tories, with opinions that sometimes expose a deep-seated bigotry the party struggles to address. Although Farage has often skirted such prejudice, he is canny enough to avoid anything with which he can be seriously attacked. Is the final nail in the coffin, at least this side of the Severn, down to his views on the Senedd and devolution? He has long been critical of the Welsh government's performance. Much of his criticism is valid, although fiscal arrangements and reserved matters hinder the Senedd's ability to act. Even so, there is a sense of English Superiority about him. He conveys a belief that Wales is not capable of self-government and can only truly be governed effectively from Westminster. Then again, the same charge can be levelled at both Labour and the Tories. Whether Reform can resolve these weaknesses remains to be seen. Leaving aside their tendency to link everything to migration, which is probably the more unpleasant aspect of their political identity, they are garnering considerable support among members of communities who have seen little progress or benefits for decades. Is the anger at this at the heart of Reform's support?

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Jeff

farage is a rabble rouser looking for the mob to get to the front of it. That is all he is, wrapped up in nasty little man. There is no trying to be like "BBC Politics maybe he has a point", he is a wrecker, a destroyer. He will not tackle any Welsh issues. He will run away from the mess.

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Alan Jones

You won't find many on this site disagreeing with you Jeff but the words of Tim Morris are quite literally "nail on head". We all know what farage & his ilk are about & should always be shouted out loud & proud but it's time now to put in place on sites such as this & hopefully elswhere the absolute failure points in the farage plan for the country both UK & Cymru in particular. ( Big shout out to Martin Shipton & the team on this mind). It's well known that farage when questioned in depth on his policies always runs for the hills only to reappear at some venue in London on a Monday morning to spill out his rhetoric but, as always with the London centric media, there's no kick back. Thank goodness for Plaid & to a certain extent the Green party leadership who have woken up to this (far more effort needed of course) as we now know that both Labour & the failed Tory parties are too busy chasing the farage voters to notice the "quiet" mood of the country.

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Crwtyn Cemais

[ Please scroll down for English ] Os rydym am gyrraedd 'Peak Farage' CYN etholiad nesaf San Steffan yn 2029 - bydd rhaid i Starmer a'i gryw frysio i newid y system etholedig o'r un ' Y gyntaf i'r felin gaiff falu' i system gyfrannol heb oedi- mae'r mwyafrif gyda nhw yn Nhŷ’r Cyffredin - dylen ddeddfu cyn gynted â phosib. ~ If we wish to reach 'Peak Farage' before the next Westminster election in 2029 - Starmer & Co. need to hurry and change the electoral system from 'First Past The Post' to a Proportional system without delay - they have the majority in the House of Commons to do so - they should legislate for it as soon as possible.

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David J

Hollol wir.

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David J

Utter bilge.

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"The ceiling for populist right politics seems to be at around 35% of the electorate. If voters organise tactically around opposing candidates, that isn’t enough to win power here or in Westminster". A very big IF unfortunately. It's dif...

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