Paul Davies’ pivot towards cutting the Senedd is recognition that a deal with Plaid Cymru is impossible

Why does the author of this piece think that 20 seats for the Conservatives next year would probably be "a Conservative high-water mark" without mentioning the respective figures for PC (or Labour) with regards to wether their figures of 18 or 21 would be a floor or a selling?

Plaid is a left of centre party that exists to secure independence for wales while the welsh conservatives are a right of centre party committed to preserving the union - who in their right minds would think a deal could ever be done between these parties who are diametrically opposed to one another? And in today's statement paul davies seems to indicate the welsh conservatives are returning to their anti wales and devolution bashing stance of the 90s

All past victories and failures tallied, from Aneirin of Catraeth to Aneirin of Glynebwy. We win when our poets praise warriors. And we lose when our poets praise long past deeds.

I think the speculative alternative analyses offered here are shrewd and apposite. No knowing for sure what Paul Davies's actual intenrions are, but my hunch come closer to Mr Morgan Jones's second suggestion, 'that Paul Davies loves devolution so much that he’s willing to sacrifice any hope of government in order to preserve the Senedd' - though I wouldn't put it quite as positively as that; I'd say he loves it because it gives him a significant political role which might otherwise not be available to him! The Conservatives opposed devolution to the very end; but on the other hand, once it happened, they accepted it and worked with it. And after twenty years Conservative AMs have a vested interest in it - it's simultaneously their power base and their career, and your average politician prioritizes hanging on to both with total focus as long as humanly possible! I noticed Janet Finch-Saunders, arguably one of the more strident Tory right-wingers in the Senedd, passionately proclaiming her absolute devotion to devolution on a TV panel just a few days ago, and I was inclined to believe her; if the Senedd ceased to be, her political career would cease to be too! Probably the best she could achieve thereafter would be a seat on Conwy Council. I suspect Paul Davies would be in no better position, except that it'd be Pembroke rather than Conwy. But I agree that the latest poll might well be shaping Paul Davies's thinking. I suspect that he's quite attracted to the idea of a coalition with Plaid because he judges - probably correctly - that the Conservatives, by virtue of number of seats, would be the senior partner and he'd be First Minister. But he also knows quite well that Plaid wouldn't - couldn't, probably even if led by someone other than Adam Price - acquiesce to such an arrangement because in the longer term the compromises inherent in doing so would inevitably alienate their voter base. So instead he casts a line with this new bait, in the hope, as Mr Morgan Jones suggests, of hoovering up 'the entire Brexit Party, UKIP and Abolish the Assembly vote'. If the Tories can't win in 2021, Mr Davies may feel that the next best thing is to consolidate his party's position as much as possible and hope that Plaid can be beguiled once again into consenting to be Labour's junior partner - thus enabling more Drakeford! The poll does suggest that Plaid's support is now on a high, but ironically, because it's still probably not quite high enough, there may well be nasty traps ahead for them whatever decision the Party of Wales ultimately takes once we know the election result in May next year.

If I still lived in Wales, he'd get my vote. Common sense without closing the whole shebang down. Surely it's worth a throw of the dice?

"Plaid Cymru would have wanted an expansion of the Senedd’s size and power – that is their raison d’etre." I really hope its not true, but fear it is. Like Paul Davies, I am from Pembrokeshire and favour Remain. As practical Pembrokeshire people, he does not like what he sees in the existing London-down arrangement with so little power, and neither do I. Paul Davies wants to freeze, slim down as he clearly thinks its heading nowhere. I can see why. The real question is where we go from here. Many Welsh Tories see value in a Welsh Parliament having to raise its own money, and living within its means. Surely any self-respecting Welsh Nationalist would want to see Wales doing just this? So for Plaid to rule out discussions lets Wales down. A solution is surely not far off. Call a Convention, write a Constitution and get a transition plan going to financial self-sufficiency. The reason why "Home Rule All Round" and "Dominion Status" have such a hoary old feel is that these have been under our noses as the right answer for over 100 years. I get it that there are Con-antis and Labour-antis. For there to be Nat-antis is unforgivable. NB - Dominion Status is not instead of Indy, its that solid stepping-stone. Ireland and most of the the Commonwealth took this path

The Welsh Assembly is not perfect, you can thank the Labour Party for that, for not giving us the same power as Holyrood. But, if the Senedd is ever abolished, then Wales as a political entity is finished. We only exist on the sporting field. What a situation, that would be, Ireland re-uniting, Scotland an independent nation, the North of England, gaining more power, through the Northern Powerhouse, while Wales gives up her Senedd, for direct rule from a Tory Westminster. Sheer madness, but the way. Wales is slowly turning blue, it could happen.

All this speculation and attempted mind-reading seems based on the premise that there'll be almost a three-way split in the number of seats won by the three main parties, with Welsh Labour still ahead but needing a leg-up from Plaid. Bear in mind, though, the unknown variable of how many seats, if any, will be won by the two new pro-independence parties. But IMJ is right in predicting that there will be no partnership between Davies and Smith to form a coalition government. This is not merely because Plaid is too 'Welsh' for the Tories' liking, or too pro-devolution. Since the dead hand of Leanne Wood still seems to influence both policy and candidate selection, the Party has also become too 'woke' for the Tories, and looks like becoming more so. It is difficult to assess which section of the electorate Plaid Cymru is currently trying to appeal to, but the likelihood is that it's the small cosmopolitan elite of Cardiff, and the capital's ethnic minority community. It certainly isn't the dispossessed of the post-industrial areas (although there are one or two exceptions to this in both the North East and the Valleys). If Paul Davies can convince people that he is the man of the hour to "drain the swamp" in Cardiff Bay and to run a "leaner, fitter" Senedd while keeping its alleged financial excesses in check, then the Conservatives might sneak in through the back door, and have no need of Plaid. Literally anything can happen between now and election day. The one crucial point that Davies is presumably deliberately not mentioning is that devolution is largely ineffectual ONLY because it is kept deliberately weak by Westminster. If he is serious about preserving and safeguarding devolution, he would be pressing for STRONGER devolution, as Plaid are doing.

I looked on the gov.wales site and as far as I can make out there are officially 'only' 9 actual ministers with 5 deputy ministers. So just getting rid of the deputies would change it to The First minister and 8 ministers with portfolio. All ministers have their minions who do much of the ministers work for them. Modifying the Deputy Minister titles to Chief Ministerial Assistant would instantly reduce the number of ministers to nearly what Paul Davies wants without effecting any de facto change. I'm sure Paul Davies knows this so I'm guessing he is trying to appeal to the Abolish the Assembly people to vote Tory.

Deja vu all over again? A Conservative Party re-positioning itself out of fear of being outflanked? This speech and the announcement by David Melding that he will not be contesting the 2021 Senedd election indicates that the Nick Bourne era is well and truly over. Could Paul Davies unwittingly become to abolition of the Senedd what David Cameron was to Brexit? Could this change in stance trigger evolution of opinion towards two polar opposites: Senedd as the parliament of a sovereign Wales or abolition ? If so, those currently supportive of devolution will have some serious thinking to do.

I think it would be foolish for Plaid to rule out a deal with the Tories. We in Wales have had uninterrupted Labour rule since the late 90s. If they are returned to government again next year that will make it almost 30 years. Surely you must agree that this is not healthy for democracy & in the long run play into the hands of the abolitionists. If there are things that both Plaid & the Tories have common ground then maybe it could just work. In an age of ever increasing polarisation - Trump, Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn etc it seems to me that you are either hard left or hard right, 2 opponents working together for the common good of the country may actually be a breath of fresh air.