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Opinion

Parity with Scotland for Wales - how realistic is it?

By Mark Mansfield
Rhun ap Iorwerth - Matthew Horwood

Jonathan Edwards

Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth’s call for Wales to be given parity with Scotland seems to me to be a smart political move by him.

Since the dropping of a clear roadmap to independence, Plaid has had precious little to say about how they want to see Wales move forward on its constitutional journey.

Nation readers might be interested to learn that I am currently writing my memoirs, and I have just finished the chapter on the 2010-15 Parliament.

This was a period of considerable change in the relationship between the constituent parts of the UK. Northern Ireland was agitating for powers over corporation tax to enable them to compete with the Republic.

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Independence referendum

The SNP had won the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections and secured an Independence referendum which for a short period of time made it feel like anything was possible. Wales had voted conclusively for law making powers.

The Silk Commission which followed recommended devolving fiscal powers for the first time as well as major advancement on fields of responsibility for Wales.

Throughout this period, I would often argue that the most powerful message in Welsh politics was parity with Scotland. It took away the fear factor for those of our fellow citizens who were unconvinced on Welsh constitutional advancement.

If Scotland could have it, why couldn’t Wales? It also put Unionist politicians in a difficult spot. They would happily vote for these powers for Scotland yet deny it for their own country.

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Brexit

Brexit of course changed everything, and the gear has very much been in reverse since. We are now back in an attritional battle as opposed to manoeuvring for a swift and decisive victory despite the emphatic growth of Yes Cymru and the support for Independence in Wales.

I have no idea if this is just a short-term tactical intervention by Mr ap Iorwerth or whether this is a strategic position with the post 2026 Senedd in mind. I have no idea if the numbers are correct, and I am no psephologist, but based on the recent Survation poll I picked up a seat predictor on social media that anticipated Labour gaining 38 seats; Plaid 24; Reform 17; Conservatives 16 and the Liberal Democrats 1.

For the purposes of this article let’s just anticipate that this is the sort of seat allocation we will see after the election in 2026 with Labour substantially short of a majority, with 48 being the magic number.

There is only one stable option for the next administration and that is some sort of understanding between Labour and Plaid. No other option is possible. The Tories and Reform haven’t got the numbers together, and neither Plaid nor Labour would work with Reform.

Considering Labour are now in power in Westminster, a new Wales Bill to equalise powers with Scotland is in their gift. There have been plenty of Commissions from Silk to Thomas to justify the policy.

Determined 

The question is, having set out his stall, how determined is Mr ap Iorwerth to back up his position? Will he make this a red line for the election and when the post-election discussions begin, or is he sabre rattling? If Labour refuse to accede, would he be willing to destabilise the Welsh Government in the next Senedd and bring it down at a risk of playing into the hands of Reform?

Things might not be totally straightforward for Mr ap Iorwerth in any case. Unless he has got his act together in identifying candidates who aren’t from the left-wing faction of the party, he might be leading a group radically different in composition after the election who may well want one of their own true believers in charge.

Furthermore, how can he argue that he offers change at the election if his main pitch can only be delivered in agreement with Labour?

Credibility

On top of this,, Labour could well undermine his credibility in the lead up to the election by saying that as he withdrew Plaid from the Cooperation Agreement, they can’t trust him and would refuse to negotiate if he is leader.

With the latest Scottish polls indicating that support for Independence is growing and that the SNP will win the next Scottish Parliament election, it looks like Labour are going to have to come up with a new offer for Scotland and soon.

If I was a Labour strategist, I would be making a similar offer to the people of Wales in order to park my tanks on Plaid’s lawns and present myself as the best placed force to stop Reform. Plaid voters would desert in droves.

Remember: above all in politics, the worst thing you can do to your opponents is give them what they want.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr from 2010-2024.

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33 comments

David

"Things might not be totally straightforward for Mr ap Iorwerth in any case. Unless he has got his act together in identifying candidates who aren’t from the left-wing faction of the party, he might be leading a group radically different in composition after the election who may well want one of their own true believers in charge." If I am understanding this correctly ALL candidates of Plaid Cymru should have independence as their main belief irrespective if they have left, centre or right leanings.

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Linda Jones

Independence is a process, going for equal status/funding with Scotland is a good start.

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Llew Gruffudd.

Independence is an aim, an ambition, not a process and we should be looking to getting there as quickly as possible. We risk, as we have with devolution,getting further entrenched in lesser aims that will satisfy only for a short while. Parity with Scotland, for Plaid, is merely an easier option. They don't have to work for it, it's just a mantra. Scotland's ' benefits ' through their responsibilities for justice and policing and Crown Estates, has not meant a reduction in crime, improvements in health and social care and their local councils are still not able to deliver local services. The reason is the same as Wales, lack of the ability to grow its economy and retain the proceeds. They now are in the position of diminishing returns, there is less that they can squeeze from the UK government. Fortunately for them, they are closer to Independence. The reason, They have worked for it, it is front and centre of their ambitions and they are clear on that. Nothing second best from Westminster will satisfy them. It's not clever politics by Plaid, it's just selling Wales short.

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Idris

A big backward step by Plaid who have quietly put their commitment to independence on the back burner.

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Steffan Gwent

I have just wished my Scottish friends a happy St. Andrews day. On Monday Scotland will enjoy a Bank Holiday. It is only right that Cymru has parity and a public holiday for Dydd Gwyl Dewi every March the 1st.

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Blodyn

Not sure about this. I like the tradition of school eisteddfodau and dressing in traditional costume on our national day. A holiday may well just be another day in front of the TV/computer games.

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Arthur Owen

I agree 100% on the few St David'd Days I have had off work I have spent all the afternoons in the pub,although few could afford that now.

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Geraint

Many of our communities now hold vibrant St David's Day parades, sometimes on St David's day but with many on the closest Saturday to our saints day. If the 1st March is a Saturday or a Sunday schools hold events on a Friday or Monday. In my opinion when we get a bank holiday schools will continue to hold school based events, there will also be more community events with schools being at the heart of these activities as well. The whole St David's Day experience will grow and be more inclusive including school pupils and their wider communities. These celebrations will also have very positive economic outcomes. In Ireland the St Patrick's day bank holiday does a lot for the Irish economy.

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Linda Jones

Rhyn ap Iorwerth is making a great start. Equality with Scotland is something lots of people can get behind at this stage. Its Labour who will take the flack if Plaid win the Senedd at the next election and the Westminster LP refused such equality.

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And

Reform hoovered up discontent voters in the Valleys where Plaid has been established for decades. That's not a good start. The party had regional victories where the party is well established for sure and nothing should take away from that - but nationally the campaign just didn't materialise. Plaid won't win the Senedd. The electoral reforms mean it'll likely be a coalition between Labour and Plaid of some kind. So Plaid would be seen to be helping Labour and Reform will exploit that relationship for its own gain and Plaids expense. The amount of people who wont vote for Plaid because of its relationships with Labour is substantial and grows with every day Labour is in government in Westminster. Labour wont take flack. They've got a far more developed PR machine than Plaid (which doesn't have one at all if you consider the electoral impact of the Co-operation agreement). How can we build a movement and effectively campaign when there is such a complete lack of critical thinking within our movement?

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Chad

Devomax should be the goal within the UK, for Scotland and Wales. And Kernow, London and Yorkshire.

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Llyn

I agree with having parity of powers with Scotland. Not sure how deliverable it is. The Welsh Labour Party can't do that with the current government. What Plaid need to do is come up with policies that are attractive and inspiring across Wales. Fair play the Welsh Tories have come up with an alternative farming scheme. All Plaid appear to do is demand more money for this and that, without ever saying where that money will come from and therefore where the resultant cuts for diverting these funds would fall. All rather unconvincing student politics.

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hdavies15

begging bowl politics is about all you'll ever have under a devolved structure. Even the Labour government in Cardiff is having to engage in a kind of begging bowl game because its own ability to generate significant game changing revenue streams is insignificant.

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Llyn

I agree but that's where we are and that's landscape Plaid must work in and provide an attractive and realistic manifesto to push Labour (and Reform).

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Jonathan Edwards

Plaid Cymru has no right whatsoever to rule out a deal with Tories and Reform. Its obvious - duh - that Plaid is left and the other 2 are right. But not the end of the story. Policy platforms at elections can be limited to a few selling points. Here's my list of Plaid-Tory-Reform policies Give Wales a break from Labour. 2. Organise a Consitutional Convention to allow Welsh voters and politicians to decide between scrapping devolution or rebuilding Wales with a Consitution like Ireland's. 3. Agree a plan whereby taxes raised in Wales stay in Wales and don't have to be fed via London, except for specifics like Defence. Personally, I'd go for Dominion Status so we keep the King for now, with the rest being Indy. Should keep Tories & Reform happy. Come on, Wales

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Lyn E

Plaid cannot be said to be ‘left’ if it contemplates a deal with the Tories and certainly not with Reform.

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Jonathan Edwards

Depends whether Plaid puts Indy (via a Convention) at the top of its list, or somewhere halfway down ie nowhere.

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In reply to Jonathan Edwards

Lyn E

It doesn’t matter. Collaboration with far right racists is never acceptable.

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In reply to Lyn E

Rob

Under the current crop of tories no I would not want Plaid to work with the Tories. But if they were to revert back to the way they were under Nick Bourne and David Melding (centre right, and devo-friendly) then Plaid should not rule it out. 30 years of same party rule cannot be healthy for any democracy, furthermore Self-determination and independence should not be a left-right issue.

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In reply to Rob

Lyn E

Independence cannot be separated from wider politics. If it is to be justified then it has to be shown to advance human wellbeing, which must include freedom, justice and equality for all. Any constitutional change infected with the politics of the far right cannot deliver that.

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In reply to Lyn E

Rob

The Tories under Nick Bourne were not far-right. Independence movements also has to appeal to a broad church to win support, if that includes working with people we would not normally align with politically than so be it.

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Llew Gruffudd.

So party with Scotland. A smart political move by Plaid. A step in the right direction. Fairness and equity. And how is it to be achieved. Plaid will hold Welsh Labour's feet to the fire in 2026. I think I have covered it all. The headlines are ' Is it realistic '. The question should be, will it benefit Wales. Why are we pitching our future on what Scotland does. Prior to 2014, Plaid's pitch then was, wait until Scotland votes for Independence. Wales will follow. What followed was a wasted decade. No policy, no progress from Plaid. And here we go again. At least it saves them making policy of their own. Wales specific policies. And what will it achieve. The Welsh public will see very little benefit. The Crown Estate in Scotland brings very little net gain ,other than a modest Community Fund. Net gains from the Crown Estate, is then deducted from the Block Grant. And how is it to be achieved. There is little sign of a sympathetic hearing so far. So to 2026, when, so the story goes, Plaid will be in a position to pressure Welsh Labour to pressure UK Labour to do the decent thing. In 2026, Labour in Westminster, will be looking to survive the next election. Wales and its handful of votes will be a very low priority then. On a positive note. At least Plaid will have something to keep them occupied until reality kicks in.

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Rob

Northern Ireland has far more devolved powers than Wales, and they have only existed as a political entity for a century. Westminster wears 2 hats acting as both the UK and the English Parliament. "Parity with everyone else" sounds much more of a vote winner than 'parity with Scotland' and is.more unreasonable to argue against.

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Mawkernewek

Is it really unthinkable that Labour could join up with whatever of the Tories aren't eaten up by Reform?

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Jonathan Edwards

Shouldn't be. Wales would benefit from re-vamping all the Welsh parties, And from calling a Constitutional Convention to design a proper near-Indy Constitution like all the other normal ones, Ireland say. Must have a Bill of Rights. Forget all the out-dated left v right stuff for one Senedd. Re-vamp needed in Wales

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Jack

Parity for England with Wales is a more obvious need.

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Chad

Exactly, England should be divided and ruled as devolved provinces. Covid proved it's far too big to run from a desk in Whitehall.

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Rob

Logic dictates that there should be a fully devolved English Parliament. The only issue is would they vote for that in a referendum? I think most people in England are happy for Westminster to act as both the UK and the English Parliament, which isn't ideal. There used to be a mechanism to ensure English votes for English laws, but it was the Tories who scrapped it.

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Chad

There are a lot of politically homeless small-c conservatives and centrists waiting to be wooed. A party whose primary focus is constitutional can't only be leftist because there's no change without support from across the political spectrum.

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Jonathan Edwards

Spot on, Chad. Convention.cymru has a plan for exaclty this.

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Shan Morgain

Frustrated can't get my head around the political strategies described in the article. Why on earth? I hesitate to say it's not clearly written as it seems to be.Yet I'm not a weak politics head either. Far from it. Usually way ahead. So, bewildered. But CYMRU AM BYTH

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So party with Scotland. A smart political move by Plaid. A step in the right direction. Fairness and equity. And how is it to be achieved. Plaid will hold Welsh Labour's feet to the fire in 2026. I think I have covered it all. The headlines...

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