Northern Powerhouse Rail and the implications for Welsh Politics

Jonathan Edwards

A news story which caught my eye was the briefing by UK Government sources that Northern Powerhouse Rail is to be formally revived this Autumn.

If these reports are true, the project which aims to link the great northern English cities from Liverpool on the west coast to Hull on the east will be announced by UK Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander at the Labour Conference next month. It could become the next big flashpoint in Welsh politics.

From a Labour UK perspective this is a good move. It would enhance rail connectivity and capacity between key northern cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford and Hull and include High Speed infrastructure; reduce journey times and improve reliability, particularly on the Trans-Pennine route.

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Environmental goals

From an economic perspective, improving connectivity between the northern cities will provide a counterbalance to London and the South-East. I think it’s a far better project in that regard than HS2.

It will also help achieve environmental goals by providing an alternative to vehicle use on the congested road network in the region.

Politically it will also bolster Labour’s offer at the next general election in constituencies which voted for Brexit and could easily turn to Reform. It will also provide an investment led narrative to forthcoming fiscal events.

While exact details are yet to be confirmed, and indeed after the scrapping of the northern legs of HS2 will require some rethinking as the project was initially designed to link both, the project could help tackle what Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham labels the “monument to British mentality”.

Traditionally transport planners at UK level prioritise connectivity to and from London over regional transport planning. The west-east corridor in the north of England between Liverpool and Hull easily has a population of around 10 million. In terms of improving UK economic productivity and helping rebalance the UK economy geographically it’s a complete no brainer.

In the context of the north of England it takes longer to travel east to west than north to south. The distance between Liverpool and Hull is only 126 miles, yet it would take someone the best part of three hours to travel by train.

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£30bn price tag

The project however comes with a hefty price tag of £30bn according to a Department for Transport assessment last year. It would mark the largest ever non-London related investment by the UK Government.

Leaving aside that costs would inevitably increase over time, if we work on the basis of the £30bn figure, it should result in an additional £1.5bn funding for Wales over the construction period of Northern Powerhouse Rail, based on population share.

Considering the economic benefits for the north of England, Wales and the north of our country would require substantial transport investment to help our economy compete with the emerging behemoth on our northern border - otherwise economic activity will flow eastwards.

If previous form is anything to go by, expect some sop by the UK Government that north Wales will be connected directly to the line as sufficient justification for using the general taxation pot, which includes Welsh taxes, to pay for the project without any resulting Barnett consequentials.

Funding 

Alas, despite the project being completely England only, it is not guaranteed as we have witnessed with HS2 and the new Oxford to Cambridge line (estimated cost £6bn) that Wales will receive any funding allocations at all and the comparability factor in Statement of Funding assessments for Transport will shrink further.

If, as expected, the project becomes a signature policy of the current UK Government, the Labour Party is going to own this one completely. Labour MPs based in Wales for their own self preservation need to confront the Treasury head on, in a way that they have failed to do with HS2 and the Oxford to Cambridge line.

If they fail, and the project is designated as England and Wales, every time Northern Powerhouse is mentioned on the news, Welsh voters will be given a stark reminder of how they have been shafted yet again by the UK Government, and a Labour one at that.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24