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Opinion

Labour must improve its offer to the people - or hard right populists will seize the agenda

By Mark Mansfield
Nigel Farage. Credit: Steve Finn/WENN.

Martin Shipton

This week’s two by-elections may have confirmed that Labour will win this year’s general election, but I’ve never been so apprehensive about what may follow the victory.

Most people are heartily sick of the Conservatives and there’s a tangible sense that the curtain is falling with increasing rapidity on their pantomime of a government.

But there’s no excitement about the prospect of Labour under Starmer taking charge, as everyone at least half awake knows will happen.

The fact is that he and his Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves are spending their time reassuring the business world that they won’t make fundamental changes from the neo-liberal status quo - pre- and post-Truss,of course. Every time they ditch an ambitious policy, saying it is unaffordable, they diminish the hope that things can only get better.

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Tony Blair

It’s unlikely that the song which provided the score for Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 will get much airtime this year. From a musical point of view I wasn’t a fan of it back then but I’m happy to concede that for many people it captured the sense of optimism that pervaded Britain at the time.

What would be the best anthem for the coming election? A funeral dirge, maybe. The point I’ve been leading up to is that Election 24 could be the last chance we have to avoid a descent into populism of a really nasty kind.

As someone pointed out the other day, Starmer is possibly the first British politician to face street shouts for him to be “out” before he’s even got in. He’s already alienated a lot of sensible people on the left of his own party by approving none-too-subtle manoeuvres that ensure they won’t be selected as Parliamentary candidates.

Far more importantly, because it directly affects ordinary people rather than aspiring politicians, he’s progressively getting rid of pledges that could rejuvenate the economy. Already, before the general election has been fought and won, members of the Shadow Cabinet like Wes Streeting are going on TV to lecture live audiences and viewers about why they shouldn’t expect things to get better, because the country can’t afford it.

Starmer and Reeves talk about the need for growth while at the same time making it clear that their determination to continue austerity - for that’s what their approach to the economy amounts to - makes it less likely that growth will occur. When people have less discretionary spend available to them because of rising mortgages and energy bills, as well as stagnant wages, there’s a negative trickle effect that sends the economy into a downward spiral. Hence the problems in the hospitality industry, for example, that lead to significant job losses.

Absurdly, the incoming Labour government is committed not to return to the European single market - a step that would be of immediate benefit to many businesses and lead to new inward investment opportunities that Britain is missing out on because we can’t provide access to EU consumers. The excuse for not doing it is because we might upset a dwindling band of people jealous of the “Brexit freedoms” that they can’t explain.

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Unpopular

My apprehension stems from the likelihood that Starmer’s government will rapidly become unpopular because of its failure to deliver tangible improvements. What comes next is the worry.

Our population has largely resisted the toxic allure of hard core racist and fascist parties. We’re fortunate that those who lead such groups have tended to be unprepossessing at best, and usually surrounded by snarling thugs whose appeal is to a tiny demographic essentially composed of themselves.

But as we know, there are others whose outlook and prospectus are objectionable to many of us, but who are able to deploy a roguish charm that superficially softens a harsh message - and makes it somehow respectable.

Into this category I would place Reform UK, the renamed Brexit Party, which of course claimed more votes than any other at the final European Parliament election in which we participated.

In the early hours of Friday morning candidates and officials of Reform were congratulating themselves and each other while celebrating the 13% and 10% of the vote they gained respectively at Wellingborough and Kingswood - more than the party had achieved at any other Westminster election.

Its leader for now is Richard Tice, an odious and smirking toad whose partner Isabel Oakeshott is equally obnoxious. But waiting in the wings is Nigel Farage, whose skills as a confidence trickster reached their apogee in the 2016 referendum campaign that culminated in the UK’s departure from the EU.

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Reform already has a chunk of disillusioned Tory voters, and the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg have no compunction about cosying up to Tice and Farage. Their strategy seems to be to do as much damage to the Conservative Party as possible, in the hope that the British right can realign. There has already been speculation that Farage’s ambition is to lead the Tory party. His best chance of doing so would be to offer himself up as its saviour if it had gone down to a huge defeat at the hands of Labour. It's highly plausible that such is the master plan.

A weak Starmer-led government, unable to engineer an improvement to the economy because of its adherence to austerity spending limits, and under pressure from a range of increasingly disenchanted groups, some of them militant, would be a sitting target for an insurgent New Tory party run by Farage that offered simplistic solutions and created a full panoply of scapegoats to victimise.

We live in a troubled society where many people are beyond disillusion and wholly alienated from the political process. This applies just as much in Wales as in the rest of Britain and especially among the poorest, of whom we have more than our fair share.

Starmer and his team should have a rethink about their general election offer. Currently it’s likely that they will come up with a minimalist manifesto and rely on the electorate’s weariness with the Tories to sweep them to victory.

When they’ve taken power, however, people will demand that their expectations - articulated or not - will be fulfilled.

If Labour’s vessel is empty, others which are far less palatable will emerge.

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13 comments

Steve Duggan

When the Tories lose the next election they will lurch further to the right - it's inevitable. They'll be desperate so Farage will be the obvious candidate to lead them. Labour will only have one 5 year term to turn things around if they don't the Tories could well get back in, that is what they are hoping for. So Starmer has to be brave and bold or we'll all be back to square one in '29.

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Padi Phillips

I doubt that an incoming Labour government has more than six months to prove itself. Starmer and Co really do need to listen to what Gary Stevenson has to say, broadly that Labour has to heavily tax the super rich so that he can deliver for the very poorest who are increasingly slipping into deeper and deeper desitution, the middle-class who are rapidly shrinking in size. Stevenson's prescription is very similar to Martin Shipton's above, that a failure to quickly embrace policies that rapidly deliver substantial improvements in the lives of ordinary people will result in a massive lurch to the right. https://www.youtube.com/@garyseconomics Ordinary people, on the other hand, need to downplay the relatively minor differences between us and come together to demand change from our politicians, ensuring they understand that refusal is unacceptable. As a strong believer in independence I feel that defeating the Tories and also the extreme right waiting in the shadows is at present even more urgent than independence. We have one chance, and one chance alone, and we need to call time on Starmer and Reeves to ensure that they fully understand that they need to deliver for us, and not for the obscenely rich. Watch Gary Stevenson's videos, he knows what he's talking about because of his life experience.

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Jeff

More immediate concern is what Sunak will do to re attract the far right drifting to reform (how do they elect their leader again? Oh yeah, they don't). On a lighter note, funny how Farage (and Mogg and many Tories) favourite ex president is now banned from running businesses in New York cos fraud and no bank loans to bail him out. Only plan for the next election is destruction of the Tory party via the polls. If the aforementioned fraudster and sex pest in the US gets to power, the Cons will hand him the keys to the UK.

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Padi Phillips

The trouble is the not comedy combo Starmer & Reeves are also hand Trump the keys, as they are more in favour of helping the plutocrats than they are of delivering for ordinary people. I'm not a Labour supporter (even though I voted for Corbyn in both 2017 and 2019) but every time that Starmer has reneged on something I have felt somewhat crestfallen, as in the short term only a Labour government committed to delivering what the majority need will preserve us from an onslaught by the far right manipulating the votes of the frustrated and gullible. Best case scenario is a coalition government of Labour and SNP, as the prospect of a Labour only led government under Starmer is too horrid to contemplate. Yanis Varoufakis outlines what he thinks will pan out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6H6tvVuGgo&t=2121s Whatever happens, we in Wales must double down on our own government, forcing them to face up to our needs, and not take no for an answer. It will be hard, a people are so alienated from the political process, but what alternative is there? A fascist future under the likes of Farage? A few might want that, but not yet anything like a majority.

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Jeff

Odds are that Labour will be less beholden to this but they are not in power yet and they have the black spot already, I assume some of it sticks from the usual press outlets. But I see the people writing him off, I guess all that press baron got your back stuff is working. I don't know what they will do, I expect Tory lite but that is still way better than what we have but am I also under the spell they are a done deal for the big money think tanks. Cons know they are stuffed, plan b looks like try to dissuade people voting. Looks to be working. But he is not in power yet, and we have the Cons running the Trump flag up when he won last time. We have Cons today gracing the heritage foundation and others, this foundation is guiding the gop defunding Ukraine support and getting trump back to power. Really bad think tank that already has its hooks into the Tory party. Row vs Wade is going on here under the radar already. Whatever happens, the UK cannot have the Cons as a viable party as they stand. I see the UK out this mess before I can think of Wales. It really is that bad. Wont be looking at the YouTube vid, don't know who he is but I block a lot of google stuff and get endless ads, apols there. I avoid it.

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Y Cymro

Seeing both Labour and Conservatives have failed Wales for decades. And because confidence is at a low ebb, which could leave the door open to extremists from the far-right, not only means a threat to minorities here but also Welsh & British democracy itself. There can be no better example of 1930s Germany where Hitler rose to prominence with the Nazi party, who blamed minorities for all their economic woes leading unspeakable consequences. It can & will happen again. History tends to repeat itself. Just look east, the Middle East, where tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians have been slaughtered by those whose families suffered and died in Nazi death camps of Europe. Sobering thought that the once abused are now the abuser. Today we see America lurching further into political chaos where it's a real possibility that far-right egotist Donald Trump could be the first American president to be reelected as a convicted criminal because Joe Biden, although under his tenure America's economy has bucked the trend, due to his faltering health, confused state, is seen as a liability by their electorate. The state of their politics is depressing. And seeing Britain, like America, is a two party state, there's only two choices available here under the first-past-the-post voting system. Labour or Tory. Sadly both parties have shaped Wales in their image , which has meant a once resource-rich country that was equivalent to a Saudi oil rich state now is a economic desert of no hope, apathy, and what ifs. British rule is for the fool. I am no fool. Nor do I vote Labour or Tory. The likes of the British National Party, Britain First, Ukip, Brexit party and now Reform UK, all prey on those apathetic communities left to rot by Westminster. And sadly due to block cuts means council finances are squeezed by the Welsh Government due to Tory Whitehall playing political games with their elected rivals in Cardiff bay, means those populists will offer streets paved with gold and those politically naive will believe those offering a land of milk & honey with no consequences. You fine those with right-wing tendencies think simplic because they are simple. Simple minded. A warning to the curious of the damage and influence cause to Wales if ever the extreme right -wing is ever allowed the reigns of power is Brexit itself, although many might say we've already experienced 14 years of it already. Wales has lost hundreds of millions in once European funding thanks to the threat Ukip & Brexit party made to the Conservatives which meant David Cameron pandering to the English extreme-right in the ERG (European Research Group) who since the days of the Common Market wanted to leave the European Union so gave them red meat Brexit referendum. Thanks to Brexit our economy is faltering. Companies are cutting jobs throughout Wales faster than they are created because we are deemed less competitive due to tariffs & red tape. All this because those bloody narrowminded right-wing little England buffoons in the Conservative party, ERG, Ukip, Brexit party had delusions of grandeur, who longed for the bad old days of empire where half the globe was pink and ripe for rich picking. Finally, I'd advise all to think this way. Don't be fooled. If it's too good to be true they are lying to secure your vote. It's certain now the Tories will suffer their greatest election defeat later this year. It's in no doubt UK Labour will win the next election by default. Keir Starmer offers nothing to Wales other than the continuation of Tory policies. Their anti-Welsh devolution stance. Favouring the English South East, recapturing their red wall seats in the "North", not to mention, holding back the tide of Scottish Nationalism by making sure Scots never have the opportunity to hold let alone win another referendum on independence. Wales? What about it says Labour. We'll remain the poor backwater favoured by unionists. It's worked up till now. They, UK Labour, have a motto about Wales, devolution & Welsh democracy. " If it's broken, why fix it?!"

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Fi yn unig

We can only hope that Starmer is treading a fine line to get the win then sets about a radical agenda of getting the peoples’ money back from the spivs who have stolen it, and continue to steal it, from our accounts. I don’t need to mention names but guided by the Tories’ making up the rules as they go along, Starmer could easily instigate investigations into corrupt bodies and seize their funds pending return to the public purse and our pockets so that we can start living again.

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Richard Davies

I have zero confidence in starmer meeting the hope many of us have, as a result of his actions before and after he became labour leader! He isn't attracting voters, just look at the by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood. The so-called swings to labour or the change in vote share are both unreliable as predictors of the forthcoming general election due to the very low turnout in both by-elections. It's even clearer when talking a look at the votes cast for labour on 15/02/2024 and 12/12/2019 for the two constituencies: Wellingborough in 2019 labour gained 13,737 votes and last week 13,844 - an increase of only 107! Kingswood in 2019 labour gained 16,492 votes and last week 11,176 - a loss of 5,316! Hardly inspiring! See the following to verify the numbers: https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2019-12-12/results/Location/Constituency/Wellingborough https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3837/election/419 https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2019-12-12/results/Location/Constituency/Kingswood https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3561/election/418

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Annibendod

All of this is symptomatic of the dysfunctional, degenerate UK State. It is an artiface, a construct to perpetuate the ongoing economic (and to that end, the political) hegemony of Britain's capitalist class. The Faragists represent an insurgent faction of that class. We are all, the rest of us, fodder in their battle to shape the established order to their liking. Like all fascists, they are raising false flag after false flag, creating and mining grievance politics at every opportunity. Into this mix comes Starmer's Labour. Their USP is to govern like competent conservatives. They offer no reforms whatsoever. IMHO they seek power for power's sake - an aim that is dangerous on multiple fronts. I don't expect anything other than window dressing from them. All the while, the fascist fringe will be ratcheting up the grievance-o-meter as a prelude to an ultra-libertarian far right post-Labour future. The probability of this future coming to pass is uncomfortably high. What of Wales in all of this? Considering the anglo-supremacist, singular anglo-British nationalist, imperialist, libertarian and cultural chauvinism of these antagonists, our future looks very grim indeed! Our Statehood is an imperative if Wales is to survive in any form other than as a mere region of a Britain which is a synonym for an imperialist Greater England. If Britain is to have a progressive, pluralist future then the UK must be replaced by the nations upon which foundation we can build new partnerships.

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Doctor Trousers

what labour need to be forced to do to keep the far right out of government is to commit to electoral reform as a matter of extreme urgency. are we supposed to just accept that the only way to keep a farage led, extremist mutation of the tory party out of government is to put our trust in labour managing to remain in power? or that they'll even last a full term to start with, for that matter? b****cks to that, frankly. If the nutters get in, it'll be because their knackered, undemocratic, unfit for purpose first-past-the-post system can allow a party to form a majority with a small percentage of the popular vote. if labour commit to electoral reform, and manage to implement it before they implode over Palestine and bring about an early election, it will be nigh on impossible for the far right to form a government even with the largest percentage of vote share.

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Maesglas

Under his leadership, Starmer offers absolutely nothing, and Labour will win for one reason: they are not the Tories. But that will change when in power. The poorly paid public sector workers are not suddenly going to withdraw their pay claims, nor are the many other problems going to go away. Starmer's minor tinkering will soon get found out and fail.

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Rob

The danger with populism is that it lacks any sense of rationality. The right wing Tories have a long term strategy which could easily work in their favour. They know full well that they are going to lose the election, so they will let Sunak take the blame for it, under the pretense "we would have won if we had stuck with Boris, or Liz Truss", giving them the excuse to lurch further to the right. They also know that the economy is not going to get any better until we reaffirm closer ties to the EU. But that won't stop them from blaming Keir Starmer for the state of the economy. FPTP allows governments to win, not necessarily because they are popular but because they are fed up of the alternative. We are seeing this in the USA, most Americans despise Donald Trump and were glad to see the back of him in 2020. However he may get back in because voters are fed up of Biden. Unlike the US however we do have third parties capable of winning seats. In Wales I will vote Plaid, but I do hope that the Lib Dems have a resurgence and make gains at the expense of the Tories. They are capable of winning seats in rural England where Labour cannot win, and can capture votes off moderate Tory voters would who never vote Labour. This might just keep the Tories on their toes.

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TomTom82

I understand why Nigel Farage is not to everyone's liking, but to accuse him of being far right is a kick in the teeth to the real victims of fascism. Farage is right wing, he's not endorsing murdering people based on their ethnicity. Nation Cymru and other media outlets cheapen what it means to be extreme right when you use the term so often and with no meaning or reason.

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Replying to Steve Duggan Cancel

When the Tories lose the next election they will lurch further to the right - it's inevitable. They'll be desperate so Farage will be the obvious candidate to lead them. Labour will only have one 5 year term to turn things around if they do...

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