Opinion
Labour is Imploding in Scotland - an opportunity for Wales?
Jonathan Edwards
Last July at the general election the SNP were routed, losing 39 of their MPs and left with a Parliamentary rump of only nine MPs. Furthermore, their status as the third party in the House of Commons was captured by the Liberal Democrats.
Labour, after a period of terrible electoral performances over nearly 20 years, reasserted control over its previous fiefdom, winning 37 MPs, an increase of 36.
The SNP had experienced several difficult years which are well documented, in addition to the fissure with its most prominent politician Alex Salmond and other veterans such as my good friend Angus MacNeil. The SNP seemed in deep trouble, especially with the emergence of an alternative nationalist party in Alba.
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Eye-wateringly bad
However, the latest Scottish polls are eye-wateringly bad for Labour with the Scottish Parliamentary elections around the corner. It looks like the SNP will be returned to lead the Scottish Government for a fifth term, a truly remarkable achievement considering the systemic breakdown the party has suffered. Furthermore, based on the Norstat survey for the Times, Labour will face its worst ever Scottish Parliamentary performance electing only 18 MSPs, tied with the Tories.
A separate Glasgow Herald poll had Labour winning only 16 MSPs. Despite the dire status of the opinion polls for Labour in Wales they can at least point to Scotland and reflect that matters could be far worse.
The emergence of Reform in Scotland with a poll rating of 14%, only 4% behind the Tories and Labour, is a disaster for both main unionist parties. If the poll was replicated at the election, both Labour and the Tories would only have 18 seats with Reform on 15. The Parliament would have a pro-independence majority which, coupled with Labour’s implosion, would surely reignite the constitutional debate in Scotland.
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Pitch
Speaking at the Labour Party Spring Conference in Edinburgh in February 2023, the then Leader of the Opposition Keir Starmer made a pitch for the votes of SNP supporters. He said: “Those Scots who lost faith in Britain, they have a point about Westminster. Britain has an economy that hoards potential and a politics which hoards power, and these two problems feed off each other.
“I’m utterly convinced about this – economic reform and political change must go hand in hand.”
He was of course correct and both he and his aides should reflect on these words as the Labour Party think about the next major electoral challenges they face in Scotland and Wales. If they were wise, they would act before 2026, or in the case of Scotland they will be forced to move if they don’t want the clarion calls for independence to become deafening and face losing their newly gained Westminster contingent at the next general election.
In the context of the constitutional debate in Scotland reopening, Wales must be ahead of the curve or see our nation fall further behind yet again.
The Independent Constitutional Commission chaired by Laura McAllister and Rowan Williams, as well as a host of other reports, provides a firm body of evidence for Labour in Wales to enact and could provide the foundations for the understanding between Plaid Cymru and Labour post-2026 if current projections are correct.
Lead
In politics it is always better to lead than be seen to be hostage to events. The easiest group of voters for Eluned Morgan to appeal to if she wants to make sure her party remain in the ascendancy are Plaid Cymru/Labour switchers.
Furthermore, Reform is benefitting from the stasis in Cardiff Bay. A bold announcement on Welsh powers would be one way to create a feeling of excitement in the country that politics is on the move and that our government will be given the necessary tools to improve the Welsh economy and deliver prosperity. If the current crop of Senedd Members can’t offer hope to our people, don’t be surprised when the Welsh electorate turn to the forces of populism.
There is a viable strategy for Labour to avoid what seems now as inevitable humiliation. It’s time for the Labour Party in Wales to show some vision and courage. The Prime Minister needs to think about the political consequences of a hammering in Wales and Scotland next May and the panic it would let loose within the wider Labour Party.
This gives the First Minister a strong bargaining chip with Number 10 Downing Street.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-2024
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