Johnson needs to announce a coronavirus lockdown if Wales is to avoid the worst

Another alternative is to manufacture the kit (oxygen, o2 concentraters, ventilators, protective clothing etc) and train operators and open new wards just for corona as China did, and manufacture test kits so only those infectious need to be isolated. We have an advanced economy, capacity still to make stuff, and to train people. Would that not be the most effective response?

From Italy, it's a very sad read. Since there's nothing you can do about Government decisions, I would urge everybody to start adopting self-isolation and as much as possible. I know some people cannot, because they have jobs for which they're forced to go to work. In this case, just use any possible precautions because remember: most people spreading the virus, especially younger ones, have not developed symptoms and are completely unaware, therefore very sneaky. No need to panic, food and essential goods are always available even after weeks of lockdown. But take it seriously. And if the Government doesn't take care of you, please take care of yourselves!

On Friday 13th the views of Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK Government Chief Scientific Advisor held sway, then by Monday things were moving in the direction of Sir Roy Anderson, Chief Scientist at the Ministry of Defence pro early intervention stance. On page 4 of "Considerations relating to social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 epidemic", the European Centre for Disease Control states starkly:"it is estimated that if.....interventions .... had been conducted 1 week, 2 weeks, or 3 weeks earlier in China, the number of cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively"

I don’t think the three choices are that clear cut. The risk to the economy - which is to say risk of people losing their businesses, their jobs, their homes - gets higher the longer and stricter the isolation period lasts. As we see from China it seems likely that second rounds of infections (and third, fourth) will follow because a huge sector of the population is susceptible, they have not had the virus yet. So containment, while it does slow the infection rate, is not really a solution. The main problem is that if too many people get sick at once then we don’t currently have the capacity to deal with that. So, how do we solve that? By creating more care kits, freeing bed space, creating new bed space (I’ve been enjoying seeing people appreciate the dedication of workers in the NHS, which so often is thankless). Plus protecting those for who this virus could potentially be a threat to life: the elderly, those with underlying conditions etc. WHILE allowing those who are likely to have mild or no symptoms (85% of the population) to be exposed to the virus, and build herd immunity. Otherwise this thing will stretch out for perhaps even a couple of years and more people will die as a result of the economic devastation. There may even be a way to do controlled exposure so as not to infect anyone in the at risk groups. And/ or better, isolation/ quarantine options too. There are more options than three.

Norway has banned people from using their summer cottages, to protect local health centres. Sweden and Finland expected to follow. Wales should have the power to do the same.

Not limited to 3 choices. A fourth choice would be - assess the risks rationally for once. We happily accept the death toll on the roads: noone suggests shutting down the road network and the economy. We happily accept the death toll from ordinary 'flu, in large numbers; noone suggests shutting the place down, and the economy, because of 'flu. Judging by the scorecard in Boots, comparing 'flu and Wuhan flu, I'd rather have Wuhan flu any day, it seems milder! But then, humans are notoriously bad at measuring risk. Avoiding risk completely, no matter how minor or remote, is no way to run a country.

Can we please get a little perspective here. Here are the statistics from Coronavirus Mortality Statistics from Italy, the hardest hit European country so far, compiled by the Instituto Superiore di Sanita: Average age of deceased - 81 ... 10% over 90 years ... 90% over 70 years ... 80% with 2 or more chronic illnesses ... 50% with 3 or more chronic illnesses ... 0.8% with no chronic illnesses ... 5 people under the age of 40 died with severe pre-existing conditions ... Causes of death still undetermined ... In other words, unless you are very old and are already very ill with frail health, the chances or you dying from Coronavirus is infinitesimally small. If you are under 70, there is a higher chance you will die in a car accident or even from the common flu. Old people with chronic illnesses and frail health should take measures to protect themselves from all viruses, including Coronavirus. Everyone else needs to tone down the panic levels. This is not the 'killer pandemic' some fear-porn merchants would like to have you believe.

I am in lockdown in Italy (Milan). 4 weeks ago bars and restaurants were asked to reduce numbers inside and encourage social distancing. 3 weeks ago they were instructed to close at 6pm and to strictly adhere to 1m spacing or face closure. 2 weeks ago they were ordered to close completely. There was mild panic buying for 2 days around 4 weeks ago, but nothing since and all shelves are fully stocked (with exception of hand sanitizer). Government (UK & Wales) need to give clear unambiguous advice - and most people will follow.

The Welsh Government does have far reaching rights under the already existing Public Health Act - closing bars etc came under that Act that was exercised by Drakeford here in Wales - he specifically mentioned HIS powers when announcing the closure. According to some reports Police in Cornwall stopped traffic and turned caravans back yesterday. This needs to happen here. In Snowdonia it's like a summer bank holiday - closure of schools and fine weather has led to absolute madness! Whilst the streets of London are quiet, the roads and mountains here are heaving! People are also moving en masse to self-isolate in their caravans and second homes! Villages are taking their own action - roadside signs telling incoming self-isolators and visitors in very plain language to go home! When will Drakeford and Johnson use their powers and act to stop this? The time is NOW!