Is the FM’s coalition answer a blooper or a cunning Plan?

Lifelong Labour voters will have to hold their noses and make the jump to Plaid Cymru in order to ensure that Wales’ interests are protected. They already know that Labour’s brand is tarnished, and the Tories are a busted flush. If we want Welsh democracy to endure, Rhun ap Iorwerth will have to be given the means to form a government.

Think that is the intention. The possibility of Plaid working with Labour dulls the edge of Plaids "change" narrative. It also decreases the point in people shifting between Labour and Plaid if the outcome will be some jumbling of the same. Labour'll start talking about keeping Reform/Farage out as well before claiming voting Plaid will split the anti-Reform vote. So really; nothing new from Labour here. No solutions. Just managing of the situation. Plaid will have a fair bit of infighting if it comes third I imagine. So they wont be forming a government from there.

In my opinion, the most likely outcome remains a Plaid/Labour government of some description, so they are both going to have to find a way to sort it out whoever finishes first, second or third. But it will be difficult, particularly if Reform is the largest party. They only have themselves to blame having introduced this daft closed list voting system.

In all this conjecture, Eluned is hamstrung by what Starmer does or doesn't do in London. She is just the latest down the line (Western) Branch Manager of the Labour Party, for whom Westminster Labour have nothing but contempt. (Witness the dismissive attitude of the current Viceroy for Western Colonies, Jo Stephens.) But more roundly, the discussion - for what it's worth - is about 'the survival of (Welsh) Labour' or 'Can Eluned keep her job?' Nothing - repeat, nothing - about any common good for the Cymry and Cymru itself. They'll have had over a century seemingly trying to 'stand up for Wales' and all that time since the election s of 1999 as Llywodraeth Cymru, to do something for country. And the news is the same: nothing done except in self-interest and the worry that they will lose power. I know where my vote is going next year.

It's nonsense to react with fury in the face of political reality. Labour would clearly entertain the prospect of another coalition with Plaid Cymru their policies have a lot of overlap. It's a bit weird for Plaid to challenge to the contrary as well. Ultimately it will depend on how the votes fall, but I see a strong likelihood of a Plaid Cymru led coalition in the next Senedd, most likely with Labour but it's possible the Lib Dems might do better than some of us are thinking. At the moment, I think it's unlikely that Plaid will win government outright.

This thought provoking article by Jonathan Edwards brought me a wry smile. I well remember that when Labour lost control of Swansea Council from 2004 to 2012 I was part of an Independent / Liberal coalition that ran the Council for eight difficult years with a very slender majority. We faced an active Opposition Group who worked very closely together. That group consisted of Plaid Cymru (led by Darren Price) working closely with Conservatives (led by Rene Kinzett) and Labour (led by David Phillips). After 2012 Labour came back very strong in Swansea and Plaid Cymru lost every Swansea seat it had as Darren Price fled to a safe Council seat in Carmarthen. Rene Kinzettt left Swansea for a new 'horizon'. David Phillips lost his 'leadrship' to Rob Stewart. So it's quite possible that Eluned Morgan and Rhun ap Iorwerth could form a Rainbow Senedd Group, together with any surviving Tories, to counter the emerging surging Reform flood. We will know after the election next May. We can gaze into Crystal Balls until then. The public need to quiz all candidates as to their intentions in this matter. I for one will be quizzing them all on their fantasy global energy policies. As a Welsh European I could never vote for Reform. I just hope a decent genuine Independent stands in my constituency. At my age i'm fed up with all of the present party politicians.

DJ Eluned, Drakeford, Miles and co do not deserve another term. We've raced down the PISA education tables, the economy is horrendous, the NHS is bottom of the class etc. They should all resign and let PC go it alone. If the DJ, Miles etc are still in any sort of power by the end of next year then it would be the most shameful moment in WG history.

Agreed - and Plaid would be equally silly to go into coalition with Labour. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think of a second Senedd election within 6-12 months in the circumstances you describe. I hope the proportional representation purists will then be satisfied with the ensuing chaos as nothing of importance gets done and trust in the institution eroded still further.

Did it have to be based on this manipulative closed list structure ? No, and that's where it falls flat on its face. These people have learned nothing. They treat the electorate with contempt and that reaches a boiling point in due course. That's when the law of unintended consequences really bites hard.

Very much doubt it. As we have already seen, most of the candidates selected are party creatures, so if A replaced B nothing would change I suspect. The only argument against that can see is if Welsh Labour did very badly and feared a wipe out in any second election. They might then keep Plaid in office and make them look impotent.

Plaid should rule out coalitions. If they are the largest party without an overall majority, they should form a minority administration -- and then seek the votes in the Senedd to institute their programme of change without fear or favour. This is exactly what the SNP did (very successfully) before winning an overall majority.

I think the most likely outcome is Reform UK getting the most votes and most seats but Plaid forming a Government in a coalition with Labour with Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister.

Nonsense. We wanted STV. Labour insisted on d'Hondt

I disagree. That would merely make Labour look like Reform's little helpers in their efforts to become the governing party in the Senedd. What would that look like to their supporters?

What does that achieve?

It would just make Labour look like sore losers; undermining a government simply because they didn’t win. That sort of tactic could easily backfire, costing them seats and even gifting the Senedd to Reform. If I was Labour, I’d be focusing on building a stronger communications strategy instead.

Which people of note are you talking about? Are they backing the leaders of other parties instead?

' (although I do maintain he is backed by not a single person of note).' What actual people 'of note' would you consider to be desirable for Rhun to have backing him? For Rhun/Plaid's benefit and/or your's.

Looking at Peoples Voice Cymru's website it appears to be just a mouthpiece of an Little Imperialist England [LIE]movement. Vote Reform get LIE

People have never chosen their leaders in the UK. That requires a presidential system. And there's nothing democratically legitimate about a government that doesn't have the support of a majority. It's not enough just to come first if the majority want someone else.

Just because a political party happens to have the largest vote share does not mean that they are endorsed by a majority of the electorate. Thats the undemocratic nature of First Past the Post. If Plaid and Labour's combined vote share is higher than the combined vote share of Reform UK and the Conservatives then they would have more of a democratic mandate to form a government. With the exception of independence Plaid and Labour voters probably share a common ground, so if even if Reform were to become the largest party but fail to win a majority they would have no right to claim its undemocratic if no other party wants to work with them.

Just because a party has the highest number of votes doesn't mean that they are endorsed by the majority. Thats the undemocratic nature of first past the post. If the combined vote share of Plaid + Labour is higher than the combined vote share of Reform + Conservatives than Plaid and Labour would have more of a democratic mandate to form a government. Reform voters do not have the right to claim its undemocratic simply because no other party will want to work with them.

I know isn't going to sound very popular, but Plaid may have made a mistake by ruling out a deal with the Conservatives. The threat of a rainbow coalition in 2007 gave them real leverage over Labour. Without that possibility, Labour can afford to take Plaid’s support for granted.