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Opinion

In search of a unicorn - seeking a federal UK

By David Owens
Unicorn (Creative Commons)

Llew Gruffudd

Most in the Wales' political elite are fearful of Welsh independence. They have no confidence in Wales and the abilities of its people.

They still need the comfort of Wales dependent on the UK.

There is the thinking that federalism is somehow a step to independence. It is not.

They cling to the illusion that Wales can negotiate this halfway house of federalism, in which Wales can reach its economic and social potential, no longer needing the begging bowl, but just in case, it has the federal UK to hold its hand.

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The new Wales' First Minister once called independence a dream

If independence is a dream, federalism is a nightmare.

In this search for 'federalism' and before the arguments on a constitution, on representation, on powers and responsibilities, on finance and legislation, before we find how to start and agree a process and get agreement of the proposed parties. And while we contemplate the unimaginable time scale. There is a difficulty to overcome.

England must become a nation.

In reality, at present it's not.
It has no legislative powers.
No financial system.
No government.

It is indistinguishable from the UK. They are one and the same and therefore by association, presently dominate the other UK nations.

Under a Federal system, where the UK is the Federal government. England must become a nation.

First Minister Eluned Morgan during FMQs

So. Elections to the national government.
An English First Minister, in line with N.Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
A block grant. No more dipping into the cash box.
No more borrowing.
Separate elections to the UK Federal government.

Then discussions on a Federal UK can start.

However, what if the English regions want to be involved in this federal system? More independence, more powers.

All change then.

No more England.

English regions or states. They will need their elections.
Form their constitutions.
Negotiate their financial arrangements.
Elect their First Ministers.

All this before N.Ireland, Scotland and Wales enter discussions. If they enter discussion, it is unlikely that Scotland will give up its ambition of independence and N.Ireland are more likely than not, heading for unification of the island of Ireland.

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But N.Ireland, Scotland and Wales are nations, countries, entering a voluntary agreement.

What was England, are now regions or states, with inferior constitutional standing going into negotiations.

They're not going to like that.

So will these English regions now seek nation status as separate independent entities.

All this is separate from the UK government.

The timescale for resolving these initial little problems would be unimaginable and the costs astronomical.

And then the discussions start.

A Federal UK. It's more realistic finding a unicorn.

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35 comments

Annibendod

Very much agree with this. I can see a bunch of things being more likely. I can see a Tory/Reform govt making a new Act of Wales to annul devolution. In fact, I suggested to YesCymru that it campaign back in 2022 for the Senedd to be given the sole power by super majority to decide its future. I was declined. I can see further entrenchment of the status quo. I can see some tinkering with powers. I can see the total collapse of the UK being more likely. So many things need to line up to make a Federal UK possible that it seems unlikely. Personally, I wonder if it is even desireable. What is true is that it is rare for a State of the nature of the UK to transition to a federal State. More typically they break down in revolution to be replaced or new States are cleaved from them. In fact the formation of new Scottish and Welsh States and a successor UK State i.e. England is more likely. There are many reasons why this is desireable, not least of which is to establish a Welsh Democracy. It does make sense to me in that moment when the UK ruptures, to reach out to build a new political forum for these isles - an institution based on the principle of British pluralism. We will need to cooperate on matters of common concern. I'm open to a range of solutions on this front. Something that we should already be preparing.

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James

We could have a joint referendum with Scotland to form a federation of Scotland and Wales.

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Jack

And that would achieve what? Neither would be an independent country and I would certainly now want to be linked with the basket case which is SNP Scotland.

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Jonathan Edwards

Dominion Status has been a half-way house used by many many former British Colonies on their road to Indy. Hard to think of a Dominion which did not get Indy, often within a generation. But Llew G is right. Wales should not agree to make our own march through Dominion Status conditional on Yorkshire or East Anglia or Manchester (say) doing something similar. But, for Welsh Indy to work, we Welsh will need to show more confidence and skill in running our own country than has been the case so far. We will need a re-boot.

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James

On the subject of confidence, I think political figures in Wales need to run the country as if it's already independent, building up institutions that are made of stone and not relying on important but intengible things like sporting achievements to make a point. There's a reason why South Wales hasn't taken to Plaid Cymru, and that's because it doesn't come across as a modern party like the Greens. People want policies more than a feeling of historic identity. The identity is already here - we have to build on that and win the wider public over to the practicalities of it.

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Llew Gruffudd.

I quite agree, The public needs tangible reasons for what for most would be a significant step. That, in the main should be down to Plaid. If they really believe in Independence, it should be front and centre. They have the platform. Every Plaid Cymru representative, whether it be Westminster, Senedd, or local government, should introduce Independence into every interview and conversation. How the everyday lives of the people will be improved and how it will be achieved. Emphasis on improved pensions, earnings. NHS and care service and affordable housing. Anything that affects the everyday lives of people. There is a place for Yes Cymru and the rallies, it raises the profile of Independence, but it is the practicalities that will win the day. As for the means. The public should be made aware of the huge renewable energy resources available to an Independent Wales. The ability to introduce a green technology economy with high tech industries. These things should be an everyday topic. That's very much the responsibility of the Party of Wales If they can't do that then you have to question their purpose..

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Jack

South Wales does not get on with PC as South Wales accepts the importance of English. Greens? Too Woke for me in its curent form.

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Evan Aled Bayton

Unicorns live in Scotland. What is needed is a fire breathing dragon pointing at the English border…

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Steve Woods

Federalism would involve Whitehall/Westminster shedding its authoritarian/ centralising tendencies, handing equal devolved powers to Cymru, Alba and the occupied six counties, as well as English regional devolution that isn't yet another dog's dinner. That is as likely as your local garden centre selling sacks of well-rotted unicorn manure.

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Jack

English regional devolution is wrong. If we are talking Federalism we are talking federalism by Nation only. Otherwise if we are accepting English regional devoluton let's split Wales in two - the bottom half can have pro-English speaking policies, the top part can be kept by PC as a Welsh speaking isolationist community. :)

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Lyn E

Similar objections could be made to the idea of a confederation of the nation states of England, Scotland and Wales. The size of England (with 85% of the population) would unbalance essential cross-border arrangements and decision making. Either England's dominant weight would allow it to impose decisions, or Scotland and Wales could outvote it, which would reasonably be seen as undemocratic. A possible solution to achieve independence without isolation would be for the dissolution of the UK to occur simultaneously with England, Scotland and Wales (alongside united Ireland) joining the EU as distinct member states. Getting to that is another challenge but it might at least be workable.

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Lyn E

I would be good to see some positive arguments explaining how, in practice, independence would improve the well-being of the people of Wales, not just negative attacks on other positions.

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Llew Gruffudd.

I have written that a federal UK is as remote as finding a unicorn. Your solution seems even more of a fantasy. The more real world position is likely to see Scotland retain its push for Independence. Independence ratings remain remarkably high, in spite of losing one referendum and the woes of the SNP. N.Ireland is heading for unification in the not too distant future. This leaves Wales with limited options, one being its own Independence, the other to become a county council of England. More in line with the North East than the South East, I would suspect. With regard to positive arguments in favour of Independence, you seem blinded to the very many positive views forwarded. I. being new to Nation Cymru, have had published four articles which have either addressed the dubious arguments against Independence, or the reasons why Independence would benefit Wales. Challenge those arguments by all means, but your view that they are not being put forward, is simply not true.

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Lyn E

Sorry, but you haven’t. Every one of your articles has been an attack on other positions. As well as this one, you have criticised arguments that an independent Wales would have too high a budget deficit, that it could not pay its way, and that England pays for Welsh public services, plus attacking Welsh Labour for lacking a ‘plan B’. Please reread your own articles. Not only have many of your arguments been questionable at best, but you have never defined what you mean by ‘independence’, how it would work (in particular in relation to England), or how it would improve living standards or other aspects of well-being for the people of Wales. It is more difficult to predict the course of events than you assume. All paths will be difficult. My ‘member states within the EU’ suggestion at least addresses the problem of how an independent Wales could avoid either isolation or still being dominated by England. What do you propose, positively?

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In reply to Lyn E

Llew Gruffudd.

It seems that it is you that is cherry picking my articles. I have argued and illustrated in some detail where Wales natural resources under Wales control and Independent economic status would release the finances for investment in infrastructure, Wales public services and environment, to benefit Wales. When you state that many of my arguments are questionable, you really must clarify that. But that's your line throughout isn't it, throwing comments around at random. It is true that I have put counter arguments to some of the myths being presented by opponents of Independence and will continue to do so, If you take your blinkers off you will see that my articles contain many positive proposals. I now wait with some anticipation for your opinion piece, stating your vision for the future of Wales, With supporting arguments of course.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

CapM

' I now wait with some anticipation for your opinion piece, stating your vision for the future of Wales, With supporting arguments of course.' I hope you like a whistling wind and the occasional tumbleweed.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

I am reluctant to advance a ‘vision’ for the future of Wales because of the great volatility we are currently experiencing in the global environment, geopolitical tensions, and technological change. Anyone who believes they can see through this fog to identify the ideal status and relationships of a future Cymru in this uncertain world is deluding themselves. The issues of climate change and biodiversity loss, war/peace and global trade, or artificial intelligence and geonomics, are vastly more important for the future of humanity, and our place within that, than a Welsh constitution. But the issues around that are important, and some of them cannot be avoided, even if speculative dreaming is of little value. Here and now, there is a good case for expanding Senedd’s control over Welsh affairs. There are many areas – such as Crown Estate revenues, policing and justice, or taxation – where Senedd lacks powers that the Scottish Parliament already has. It should be for possible for both those who see these as valuable in themselves and those who see them as steps towards independence to work together to demand them, together with replacing the Barnett formula with fairer needs-based funding from Westminster, and better defined rights on Westminster legislation. This is a large agenda for the coming years without claiming to see beyond that. Power for Senedd is only part of the agenda for democratic accountability. Institutions and processes exclude or marginalise the people of Wales from decision-making. This is true for local authorities, public bodies such as health boards, and businesses. We need to democratise everyday life. Methods such as Citizens Assemblies could improve decisions and increase consensus. One of my objections to nationalist ideologies is a tendency to see the ‘nation’ as homogeneous, with those who don’t fit in as alien outsiders. In reality, nations are diverse and heterogeneous, and Wales is no exception. All the criteria identified in the Equality Act 2010 are relevant here, as are questions of class (Welsh capitalists also exploit our land and people) and language. If we are to move forward, then we have to challenge inequalities and overcome our many rifts. Not a ‘vision’ as some would like but practical steps to enhance the control that people in Wales have over their lives.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

Your objection to 'national ideologies' and 'democratic accountability' can equally be applied to the UK. But you are unable to make the case explaining why being part of the UK is the better option. Project fear aside that is. And we only have what is basically your prediction that an independent Cymru would result or at least increase the risk of those bad national ideologies coming into play. Identifying issues such as devolving the crown estates in Cymru as they are in Scotland is all fine and dandy but you don't acknowledge that they are devolved in Scotland because of a significant backing for independence and the political clout that brings. Ask yourself whether opinions and advocacy such as you make contributes to enabling Westminster to treat Cymru in the way it does.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

As I have had to say so many times, this is not a binary choice between ‘independence’ and the status quo. UK politics is not immutable and ‘independence’ is defined in many different ways. Distinct member states within the EU would be an entirely different outcome than a Unilateral Declaration of Isolation. I refuse to commit to a mantra without knowing what it means. I agree that devolution of Crown Estate revenues in Scotland was a response to the 2014 independence vote. But it showed that such measures were not incompatible with the UK. Some of the biggest challenges we face, such as continued austerity, can only be met UK-wide.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

This 'Unilateral Declaration of Isolation' I assume you mean Independence, rubbish you keep going o about is in your head. Provide a link to one credible and serious source that supports the idea. Ultimately Scotland has more leverage on the UK and so gets a better deal than Cymru because it has relatively less people with opinions similar to yours on how the UK should operate.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

I doubt anyone wants isolation but it would be the consequence of an illegal UDI rather than a negotiated separation. If you bothered to think about my comments, you would realise I am open-minded about independence in suitable conditions. But I will not be told what to think by dogmatic nationalists.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

This Unilateral Declaration of Independence as it applies to Cymru rubbish you keep going on about is in your head. Provide a link to one credible and serious source that supports the idea. You've now been challenged twice to come up with evidence about this. Another running away from it and people will begin to think that you're a fantasist.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

If my comments appear random, it is because they are responding to the randomness of statements in articles or comments by others. I have consistently asked for more explanation of what ‘independence’ would mean in the contemporary world and how it would work in practice, particularly with regard to relations with other states, a bigger issue than whether Wales is poor or small. I am still waiting for answers. I have explained in comments on previous articles why I think some of your arguments, such as those on finances, are questionable. Wales undoubtedly has potential in renewable energy, a point I acknowledged in my comments on your 17 September article. But, as I argued then, you have downplayed the challenges of financing the required investment and those around supply chains and skills. A sovereign currency would not solve these, as unless it is an internationally recognised reserve currency it cannot be used to purchase imports. You also fail to address the question of who would buy this energy from an independent Wales. The obvious customer is of course England, and even if others could be found in nearby Europe (Scotland and Ireland have similar potential to Wales and France usually has a surplus from nuclear power) the transmission lines would need to run across England to reduce costs. England (a foreign country under the scenario of Welsh independence) would be under no obligation to buy or transmit our surplus energy, at least not at prices that we might need to fund the services of a Welsh state. Investment in renewables needs to happen now, which means it has to be led by the UK state, as that exists today. We cannot wait for a remote future in which Wales may (or may not) become independent. The planet is burning. No proposals, however positive they may appear, can be taken seriously unless they address the question of external relations. You appear to have little interest in these, but they would be fundamental to the prospects of the people of Wales in any future state. Any attempt to ignore England shatters on the hard geological reality of our location on the Earth’s crust. Seeing visions is best left to mystics and soothsayers. I prefer to deal with real issues.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

When all's said an' done same ole whistlin' wind and tumbleweed aplenty.. Askin' for this particular desperado's vision,. 's like barkin' at a knot. .

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

Have you ever tried putting together a coherent argument, rather than your usual mixture of insult, metaphor and riddle?

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

If you don't like what fills the void you've created then fill the void. In this case with your vision.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

I'm not a prophet. I don't have 'visions'. See my latest reply to Llew Gruffudd for what I think we should do now.

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In reply to Lyn E

CapM

You're confusing 'vision' with prediction. However you've made predictions time after time including what Cymru's future relationship with England would look like.

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In reply to CapM

Lyn E

I have not made any predictions. I have questioned assumptions and stated that this relationship must be considered, not ignored.

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In reply to Lyn E

Llew Gruffudd.

Each comment you make, reinforces my argument that you are rambling. This particular article is addressing Federalism. Some see it as an alternative to Independence, an easier option. I argue that it is not. It is you that has chosen to thrash around with random and unrelated comments. I should listen to the implied advice of others, to let it go. However, here goes again, You comment that some of my arguments are questionable, yet offer no evidence as to which or why. You question my points on using Wales unquestioned renewable energy resources as being insufficient for the required investment. I have presented financial data to argue that it is. You contradict this, again without one shred of evidence to the contrary. Your comments regarding the sale of Wales energy, shows a lack of understanding of the energy market. It is energy companies that buy the energy on the wholesale market or by private arrangement with the generator, in this case Wales.. There is a huge and growing demand for renewable energy, so no worries there. The price is dictated by the market and I acknowledged this in my figures. With regard to transmission, that is carried out across the UK by the National Grid, a private company, not at the whim of England or any other nation. You also question the lack of reference to relations to other nations. My articles always refer to Wales as an Independent nation in the context of a free market, internationalist nation. That relationship includes England. So unless you come up with much more reasoned arguments, I will leave it there. Just an aside, vision is not, as you put it, best left to mystics and soothsayers. It is the first step to change.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

You introduced the question of natural resources. I responded. In truth, I find your articles ramble, and you have the privilege of being able to write considered pieces for publication not just having to respond in comments. You assume that the energy market will continue to exist in its current form. I make no such assumption. The heyday of neoliberal free markets has passed, and energy was never unregulated. Borders and barriers to trade are becoming more significant, and states are playing a growing role. We do not know what market conditions an independent Wales (if it ever happens) would face, but you are making a very big assumption.

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In reply to Lyn E

Llew Gruffudd.

You too can write pieces for publication. I just hope they are more coherent than your comments.

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In reply to Llew Gruffudd.

Lyn E

Open-minded questions are only incoherent to close-minded people.

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Mawkernewek

Could they have a federation within a federation, the English Federated Republic within the United States of Britain - that way we can have USB ports.

Reply

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Replying to CapM Cancel

When all's said an' done same ole whistlin' wind and tumbleweed aplenty.. Askin' for this particular desperado's vision,. 's like barkin' at a knot. .

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