How to get Independence done - a starter for Plaid Cymru

Spot on article I agree 100% . Plaid have pushed independence to the side, barely a mention in their general election manifesto and not a whisper since.  Campaigning for devolvement of The Crown Estate or HS2 consequential is valid but its not campaigning for independence its tweaking with the current constitutional arrangements in a broken system and simply maintains the status quo  It was the rise in support for  YesCymru,  which finally forced Plaid to get off the fence and put independence firmly on the political agenda. Politicians listen to the public(eventually) because they rely on their votes to be elected. We need that public focus back on independence, not devolution, we need to show not only the unfairness in the current system but the positive changes independence can offer, other wise nothing will change. 

Communication - that is the key. The article is dead right, the people of Cymru need to be told about these issues. They need to be informed about the benefits of independence and the negatives of being part of the Union through leaflets, newspaper articles (In paper's such as - The South Wales Echo, The Daily Post, Western Mail and Western Telegraph), numerous social media sites, regular TV and radio interviews, rallies and local public consultations. Get the message out there, start a trend, get people talking, get them thinking what if? To win independence we first need to win the hearts and minds of the people. This is what Plaid should be doing.

I have had plenty to say about the failures of Plaid Cymru and - not surprisingly - agree with every word in this article. The "Party of Wales" gets excited about HS2 - essentially an accounting entry - the crown estate and little else. What bothers me about these entirely irrelevant issues is the failure - as pointed out in the article - to do the research and present the arguments. Through talks I have given across Wales, in articles and meetings, I have presented detailed research on the present state of the economy (we are paying our way), in a recent Nation Cymru article I showed that we always have. In addition, I have answered many of the questions about a future independent state. Point of this? Plaid Cymru should be doing this, but arguing for an accounting adjustment on HS2 funding is far more important...

Llew, you say "A referendum....(then)...Two years transition to sort out the technicalities and Wales is a sovereign state." This is a chicken and egg thing. First point is that noone, not the Scots not us in Wales, will vote in numbers for Indy if the 'technicalities' aren't in place. The plan has to pass the Andrew Neil test, on currency, public debt and everything else. You could hold a referendum first. But your pro-vote will be smaller if you haven't done the technicalities. After you've done the Ts, you need another referendum to approve the result. Me, I'd do a lot more Technicalities before I'd venture on a Referendum. But, all this said, and remembering the the present Senedd doesn't have the power to hold a Referendum anyway, its a building process. So we're looking at a number of cycles of Technicalities, Referendum (or equivalent) and Constitutional Conventions, 1,2 maybe 3. This was in fact the experience of many British Colonies before they actually got Indy. Your articles are a big contribution to understanding, but the boring 'technicalities' become the big realities when we get to proper grips with Indy. I am up for this.

There is a total absence of leadership in the independence movement, no leading individual/s are driving it on. It’s just happening organically and that has a ceiling which we’re at, unless there’s another drastic and sudden reduction in living standards. As far as Plaid goes, rhetoric on being supportive of Indy doesn’t really do anything. It’s just that, noise. When none of the policy points or arguments are being framed through the prism of independence it means the debate is not broadening its appeal or reach. There isn’t anything that platforms the arguments for independence either anymore, the latest iterations of YesCymru is more interested in waggling flags at commuters than platforming the debate around Indy. The Tories are talking about Indy more than Plaid (obviously in a negative way) and the Greens lack the platform of being in the Senedd. A third of voters have made their own way to supporting independence, it needs an organised push and the wider movement isn’t organised or prepared to step up to the plate at this moment in time. A rudderless ship.

If all you’ve got as an argument is a desire to deny democracy, defeatism and anti-migrant rhetoric then your idea of the Union is incredibly fragile.

Its not for the UK government to allow it. The precedent is set. Scotland was allowed a referendum, Wales has not yet had one. Its entirely down to the Welsh people. Wales economy is only weak, as you argue, because it belongs to a Union whose economy is weak.An Independent Wales would have entirely different options. The predators across the bridge have already identified renewable energy sources worth £10 billion a year on the wholesale market off the Welsh coast. That's £10 billion extra every year to invest and improve Wales economy and services. £10 billion for a country of Wales size. That would belong to Wales on Independence. And that's just a start.

What currency would an independent Wales use on day one? The British pound or a Welsh one? One of the “technicalities” that needs a straightforward answer as it applies to wages, pensions and, quite a big technicality, the repayment of UK national debt. This is probably the key question which scuppered the Scottish Indy referendum in 2014 and isn’t even mentioned in this article. Oh, and don’t even suggest the Euro. Wales would have to have a viable currency and meet certain economic criteria before being able to apply for EU membership.

I for one think that Plaid's shift to move independence down the order of priorities makes perfect sense. Independence is far from being anywhere near the settled will of the Welsh people so to make it front and centre of the platform going into the Senedd elections would be madness. It didn't work well for Adam Price. Andrew RT Davies' Tories were far more popular. I also have issues with the HS2 money obsession. Many people in Wales will say that Labour have way more chance of persuading the Labour UK Gov to give us that money that is rightfully ours and let's be honest most people in Wales don't use trains and don't care much about investment in them. Plaid must focus on core issues and provide convincing policies which a wide spectrum of the Welsh public will believe to be deliverable and which will improve public services and the economy. Plaid's call in the Senedd this week for under 18s with gender dysphoria to have easier access to puberty blockers is not one of these.

The country most likely to leave the union first is Northern Ireland. They have far more in common with the Republic than they do with Great Britain, both culturally and geographically. The Brexit negotiations regarding Northern Ireland were a real headache for all sides, and the outcomes of Brexit will probably make the Republic economically better off than the North. The London establishment, including the Tory party would secretly be quite happy for Irish reunification to happen, even though they will never admit it. Its the unionist community who are preventing it from happening, but they are slowly becoming a minority. Scotland on the other hand is a different kettle of fish. Irish reunification would mean that in theory that the Union could continue as Great Britain, but if Scotland leaves as well, then thats the end of the British state. The 1707 Act of Union would be repealed, separating the Kingdom's of England (and Wales), and Scotland. Unlike NI, London needs Scotland. It wants access to Scotland's North Sea oil, and maintain its military interests there, including trident. Strategically the Americans will also want Scotland to be a member of NATO. Unfortunately an independent and sovereign Scotland will have more bargaining power than an independent Wales would. But If the Scots can successfully negotiate a deal with London regarding the currency and the border, and become economically successful as an independent state, then this would ease concerns amongst those with reservations about Welsh independence. Furthermore since the British state would no longer exist we would revert back to our pre-1707 status, the choice for us would be stark: Independence or part of England! For the time being I don't think a second referendum is going to happen anytime soon, even though I know that the polls are favoring a yes vote. Even if the Scottish Parliament had the power to call one, they wouldn't do so unless they are guaranteed to win it. A second no vote would end the independence issue for the rest of this century, just look at Quebec who twice rejected independence in the 1980s and 90s. Whilst I agree that independence should be Plaid's long term goal, I am sceptical that a Welsh referendum will be winnable before Scotland. The priority for the time being should be parity with everyone else. Not just parity with Scotland, but Northern Ireland and England. (Westminster acts as both the English and UK Parliament, and it was the tories who the English voted for in 2019 who scrapped EVEL). Parity with everyone else is a perfectly reasonable and rational argument to make. It is also very difficult to argue against as it implies that we are somehow not capable of governing ourselves.

Welsh Independence will always be a priority to Plaid Cymru. It's how to achieve those aims is important. First, you need strong foundations. It's no good building on pillars made of sand. Those are favoured by Labour & Conservatives. I think since the inception of devolution Labour took advantage of the Welsh electorate. They assumed correctly that no matter what they did in office in Cardiff or London voters here would still elect Welsh & UK Labour members to the Senedd & Westminster. And with 27 years of Welsh Labour rule fast approaching, their numerous manifestos over the years promising a better Wales never realised, add the ongoing disaster that is Brexit, the English Conservative lies of a land of milk & honey promised when we left the EU that turned sour, now think finally the people of Wales realise that Plaid Cymru deserves their opportunity in power as Welsh Government led by First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth. Welsh Labour can spin all they like about fresh ideas , of fighting Wales corner, or having a UK Labour Westminster government would be more favourable to Wales & devolution bull****. We all know that's not true, especially seeing the recent budget and how ineffectual Eluned Morgan is demanding HS2 consequential and further devolution sought. Voters now see Plaid's Rhun ap Iorwerth as more competent a leader than Labour loyalist yes-woman Eluned Morgan, or that backstabbing anti-Welsh anglophile opportunist Conservative quisling Darren Miller. So all I can say is this. Judge Plaid Cymru & Rhun ap Iorwerth in office not and before. Because it's in their & his interest to get results where both Labour & Conservatives not so as they assume power is merely a formality where Plaid see it an honour to serve the people of Wales not themselves.

A petulant and churlish opinion piece from someone who, as far as I can see, has contributed nothing of value to the national debate. The campaign group calling for independence, Yes Cymru, is calling for the devolution of the Crown Estate (just like PC). According to the logic of the author of this piece, this Yes Cymru has given up on independence. Everyone who supports independence supports the devolution of the Crown Estate and for parity with Scotland - except, I suppose, for the author. Pathetic seems an apt word.

In order to get public support for independence, first the public have to see some benefit from devolution. After 25 years, it is very hard to demonstrate what benefit devolution has brought other than a warm feeling of Welshness. I cannot think of a single devolved matter that is better now than before devolution, or that is better in Wales than in England. If the Senedd has failed over the last 25 years to achieve anything other than being a nice building from which to fly a Welsh flag, how are the population going to be persuaded that Wales would thrive as an independent nation?