Hanging On

Ben Wildsmith

The higher ground of politics is prone to give way suddenly when your time is up, and this week’s events suggest that serious slippage is starting beneath the Prime Minister’s feet.

Only ten days ago, he presented a minor reshuffle as ‘phase two’ of his premiership, as if the appointment of Darren Jones to an implementation role represented the passing of an era.

With days, however, Angela Rayner’s stamp duty escapades had created the sort of political crisis that requires quick thinking and sound political instincts. The PM’s response to this was to move existing frontbenchers to seemingly random roles, and to sack Lucy Powell MP as Leader of the House.

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Poisoned brief

Received wisdom is that Starmer tried to move Ed Miliband or Yvette Cooper into Rayner’s poisoned brief at Housing. The government’s absurd 1.5 million home target for building is guaranteed to make a fool of whoever is in that role, and it is now occupied by Matthew Pennycock – no, me neither.

Starmer’s problem here is that within Labour both Miliband and Cooper have more political capital than the PM, who is widely believed not to be up to his job. Both are rumoured to have simply refused to take the job, leaving Starmer without enough support to sack them.

The way forward for Labour now is uncertain, with this afternoon’s nominations for the deputy leadership election likely to reveal the depth of dissatisfaction with Starmer. Number 10’s clear preference is for Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson to be crowned unopposed.

Inconveniently for Starmer’s team, Lucy Powell, who was sacked six days ago is tied on to receive sufficient nominations to run and virtually guaranteed to beat Phillipson in the ensuing contest. It’s quite possible at this stage that Phillipson will be asked to withdraw so that the leadership avoids the ignominy of that defeat.

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Soft left

Powell, who is running from the soft left of the party, is a Manchester MP, and that is significant.

Suspended MP for Gorton and Denton is reported to be on the cusp of resigning his seat, triggering a by-election. This would open the door for Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, to return to Parliament.

In that scenario, power-brokers like Miliband, Fielding, and Powell would swing behind Burnham to replace Starmer.

Even that medium-term outcome might be putting too long a sell-by date on the PM, however. With the path to a soft-left leadership challenge so clearly signposted, Wes Streeting, who is on the right of the party, could decide to strike first, mounting a challenge based on competence rather than a change in ideology.

Labour’s dire polling figures suggest that Keir Starmer’s leadership is costing it votes to both Reform UK on the right and both the Greens and Lib-Dems to the left.

Once Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana get their act together, another vein will be opened through which Labour’s support can bleed.

This week’s unsavoury revelations around Peter Mandelson reinforce the idea that there is something rotten about this government. Even a decision as obvious as firing the erstwhile ambassador took Starmer a day longer than it should have done. By last night, journalists couldn’t find a single Labour MP to back Mandelson, but he woke up this morning still in post.

Viable

If Labour are to remain viable as a force in UK politics, it will need to relaunch itself very soon. Its strategy of fighting for Reform UK voters on that party’s terms has clearly failed. Nobody believes that Labour is ‘tough’ on immigration, crime, or anything else. To pose as such has made the party look absurdly at odds with its history.

There remain, however, voters in the centre ground of politics who can be attracted by a Labour Party that is recognisable as progressive without espousing the grand agenda for change demanded by those of us further to the left.

The next few weeks, or even days, could see a landslide underneath the current leadership as Labour MPs seek to steer the party towards electability.