Grown-Up Politics

Ben Wildsmith

This week’s YouGov poll for Westminster voting intention showed Reform UK comfortably ahead and the Conservatives tied with Labour on 17%, which represents the governing party’s lowest ever showing with that polling company.

Zack Polanski’s successful tour of media outlets since taking charge of the Greens has boosted them to within one point of the gruesome twosome. Red and blue are beginning to look decidedly 20th Century.

However Labour tries to reposition itself now, it’s hard to see how even mildly left wing voters will forgive the attempted austerity of Starmer’s first year in power.

Reform’s capture of the right in UK politics looks to be solidifying, so the unknown factor is how the left organises itself in response.

The recent election in Caerphilly demonstrated two important features of the contemporary electorate. Firstly, we’ve learned how to game the first-past-the-post system that guaranteed two-party politics for so long. Whilst Reform seems to have inherited much of the Conservatives’ tribal appeal to voters on the right, those to the left of it are ready to lend their votes as required to prevent a Reform victory.

Secondly, Lindsay Whittle’s successful campaign proved the effectiveness of localism when offered in opposition to nationalism.

Instructive

Here in Cymru, we’ll need to learn how to maximise the effectiveness of our votes in a wholly new system next spring but the experience in Caerphilly is instructive as far as the next General Election is concerned and who knows when events might force one of those?

The Caerphilly electorate’s willingness to cooperate behind a strong candidate should be a wake-up call to the contending parties on the left. That flexibility demonstrates a mature approach to politics that voters will expect to see parties embracing as we go forward.

If Reform scores victories because of a reluctance on the part of opposing parties to enter into electoral pacts, they will not be forgiven when Trumpite policies come to our streets.

If Plaid Cymru managed to be the grown-up in the room in Caerphilly, the stuttering birth of ‘Your Party’ suggests it will be more of a problem child.

After a phantom launch, of which one co-leader seemed to be oblivious, confusion over the ownership of funds and data has led to contradictory statements to the press and an atmosphere of chaos that is evidenced by despairing posts from members on the group’s various social media pages.

This, remember, is before the party has even started to discuss policies. Coherent positions on topics like gender ID and NATO membership will not emerge painlessly from grassroots discussions. Without the guiding hand of disciplined leadership, People’s Front of Judea-style squabbling seems inevitable.

Deficit of experience

As the traditional parties seem set to fade into history, there will be a deficit of experience in UK politics. Reform’s success in local elections could transpire to be the party’s Achilles heel. Across the UK, Reform is finding out that cutting costs in local government is near on impossible after years of austerity which has persisted at council level even as it has receded in central government.

As Reform councils concede they will have to raise Council Tax, resignations are beginning, along with tales of infighting and general unprofessionalism.

These are the threads that opposition on the left can tug at, but to do so effectively, student politics must be left behind.

Across the UK, the Lib-Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and whatever emerges from ‘Your Party’ need to be realistic about who can win and where. Even under our new d’Hondt system for Senedd elections, the left must not split the vote so catastrophically in close constituencies that no left candidate reaches the threshold for seat allocation.

The electorate in Caerphilly proved that 21st century politics is a sophisticated business and that people have grown past tribal loyalties to prioritise values that are under threat from populists.

Such an electorate deserves serious politicians who are similarly prepared to do what’s required in the service of decency.