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Nation•Cymru A news service by the people of Wales, for the people of Wales.

Opinion

Facts alone won't win Welsh independence - we need emotion too

By NationCymru
Picture by Holly Victoria Norval (CC BY 2.0)

Ifan Morgan Jones

A few days after the Brexit vote I made the argument that the people who were convinced to vote for Brexit were the exact people most likely to be convinced to support Welsh independence.

The less prosperous working class who voted for it wanted to force a change – any change – that would shake up the establishment and improve their lives.

However, what has struck me in the more than a year since then is how bad we are at actually making that case to them. We have failed quite spectacularly.

Specifically, we’re bad at speaking the language of emotion.

This is somewhat ironic, since nationalism is – according to its detractors – an illogical, emotional, primordial urge.

But Welsh nationalism is in many ways not a nationalism but an anti-nationalism. It is a reaction to British nationalism.

It seeks to protect those things British nationalism would take away from us – wealth, resources, people, culture.

And it usually responds to illogical, emotional British nationalism by forming logical arguments we think will convince people to change their opinions.

No, Wales isn’t too poor to be independent. Yes, Westminister is neglecting us. No, our culture isn’t inferior – here’s the evidence. Have a pile of books.

Anyone thinking logically, we think, looking at the evidence, would surely be convinced by our arguments. The problem is just in getting these ideas out through a hostile British press.

But it isn’t that simple. We tend to overstate the role that facts and logic play in politics.

Politics is, rather, a game of emotions. It is driven not by a cold, calculating impulse to make the world work more efficiently but by people's gut instinct when presented with ideas they may or may not like.

Neuroscientists have long shown that the part of the brain that makes conscious, logical choices just isn’t open for business when people think politically.

If people come across facts that challenge their dearly held beliefs the emotional part of the brain simply overrules the rational part.

This is why it’s almost impossible for rational, logical arguments on both sides of the Brexit debate to get a look in. People have made their mind up and will cling to it like an only child on Passover.

Identity

The way around this shield is not to double down on the logic but to suggest that your argument is the one that speaks most clearly to the audiences’ identity, their values, and their beliefs.

People aren’t attracted to facts and figures. Rather, they look for politicians they can identify with, who seem to share their general values and approach to life.

People would rather a poor, illogical politician who shares their view on life than a competent, proven politician who doesn’t (look at Trump and Clinton).

Politicians in the United States understand this to a tee. Look at Mitt Romney’s advert for his Senate run in Utah.

There’s no policy in there. There’s no argument about how he would be a better senator, in practical terms, than his opponent.

The advert is almost all emotional manipulation, with a clear message: I am like you. Ignore the fact that I’m a billionaire. I share your values: families, health, national pride, belief in hard work, belief in religious freedom.

This identity issue also shows why opponents of Brexit have hit a brick wall when trying to convince people that it’s a terrible idea.

Calling people who voted for Brexit ‘stupid’ does the opposite of making them identify with you – it tells them that you’re not like them. In fact, you reject their way of seeing the world.

When we wheel out experts from the world of business and academia to tell the people who voted for Brexit that they’re wrong, they have their shield up straight away because they imagine that this person isn’t like them.

Picture by Ade Rixon (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Understanding

So how has Welsh nationalism used emotion and identification in order to win the day?

Let''s look at the seats where Plaid Cymru have gained ground over the last few years: Rhondda, Ceredigion and (to a lesser extent) Cardiff West.

What these seats had in common were candidates in which the voters saw ‘someone like them’ asking for their vote.

Leanne Wood didn’t need a Mitt Romney-esque advert in the Rhondda to manufacture such an identity because she already embodied it.

People in Cardiff West see McEvoy and they see ‘someone like me’. Plaid’s intelligensia baulk at his populist campaigns but he has a clear understanding of what appeals to his audience at an emotional level.

In Cerdigion, Plaid had fielded a string of dazzling candidates – a brilliant parlimantarian, an university lecturer and a well-known author - and failed. It was Ben Lake, a likeable, down to earth 23 year old from Lampeter, who people ultimately identified with.

But when it comes to using emotion to win arguments I think that Welsh nationalism is still some way behind.

Too often we construct detailed essays on why our ideas are better and policies superior without realising that we’re speaking to people in the wrong language (no, not Welsh).

We’ve bashed away at the valleys for years. But we won’t break through until we realise that people stick with Labour because they identify with them, not because they necessarily agree with their policies.

This is why Labour are so keen to portray Plaid Cymru the ‘other’ – north Walian nationalists, who are not like the valley's voters. Plaid must forge an emotional message that overcomes such divisions.

Perhaps the most successful person at doing so in recent times hasn’t been a politician at all, but rather an actor. Check out Michael Sheen’s St. David’s Day message:

With a tongue of mountains and a song of steel, a choir of protest and a scrum of slate, a bale of manic and a ring of nye, the drowned bell of Celyn tolls it and the red flag of Merthyr flies it, now and forever - DYDD GWYL DEWI HAPUS! Happy#StDavidsDay pic.twitter.com/tCfarPM9n0

— michael sheen (@michaelsheen) March 1, 2018

This is a purely emotional message of national pride. But in delivering it he brings together Wales' fractured history and identity together into one resonant image.

This kind of emotional politics can be sneered at, but as long as we’re doing the sneering others with no such hang-ups and darker motives will be playing the role of the political pied piper.

For too long, Welsh nationalism has been winning the logical argument but losing the election. We need to win not just the logical argument but the emotional one too.

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48 comments

Benjiman L. Angwin

Ifan, I agree Plaid needs identifiable candidates. But make no mistake, Emotion politics would push Welsh Nationalism towards the extremes. I have faith in people, faith they can make rational decisions about the future of their country based on evidence. Too much Emotion-politics leads to casting people into opposing groups and losing rationalism. Most importantly, it loses Liberal individualism and any focus on civil liberties. The Parliamentary system works precisely because its mixture of emotion governed by reason and tolerance. Have faith human beings can and will use reason to make the right choices on their own if we create a society which allows them to do so.

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ERNEST

Benjamin, Each candidate needs the right balance between emotional and rational politics. The Liberal democrats certainly have emotion on the EU/Brexit issue: Yes, it will be a disaster to lose our export markets. ...and also the axe-the-tax campaign. Charles Kennedy seem to understand this balance. I agree with most of what Ifan has said, that Plaid need to concentrate on presenting its rational policies with an emotional appeal to which it is quite capable of doing. You can emotionally feel that the UK is denying Wales its own wealth and decision making, especially if many remember what the tories did in the Valleys during the 1980s, and what might happen to the farming industry today after Brexit. You can feel emotionally about the UK denying Wales rail investment, while spending the same money on extending the London underground to Battersea (with Wales' tax payers money) !

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Ifan Jones

It's about balance. There's no point having the emotion without the logic or you won't achieve anything. But emotion can oil the wheels of political progress. Since you're a liberal I'll use the example of the Welsh national movement in the 19th century. Take this famous speech by Henry Richards n Merthyr before he won the election there in 1868: "The people who speak this language, who read this literature, who own this history, who inherit these traditions, who venerate these names, who created and sustain these marvellous religious organizations, the people forming three fourths of the people of Wales, have they not the right to say to this small propertied class… We are the Welsh people and not you. This country is ours and not yours and therefore we claim to have our principles and sentiments and feelings represented in the Commons’ House of Parliament." Was this speech factually correct? No - Welsh Nonconformists weren't actually a majority of the population, and the Anglicans and Tories he railed against were also Welsh. Richards had spent much of his life living in London! But what he was saying here is 'I am like you' - and he used that emotional appeal to drive a point home, and to recruit support. It resonated emotionally with the people of Merthyr. When Thomas Gee decided not to pay the tithe in Denbigh it was because he knew he needed more than rational arguments. He needed to get people angry - and the sight of him losing all his property would do it. That protest did more for the cause than years of logically arguing his case in y Faner. The best politicians know when to use emotion to reach people. It needs to be backed up with logical and real answers, but you need to get people's defences down first and the appeal to emotion, the message that 'I am like you', is the fastest way to do that.

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Benjiman L. Angwin

Diolch. Dyn ni’n dweud rhywbeth tebyg iawn, wsti?

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T

Benjamin - you state that emotional politics by Welsh nationalists would lead to extremism, you also state too much emotional politics can lead to the loss of rationalism and that the parliamentary system "works" - precisely because there is a balance between reason, tolerance and emotion. So essentially you agree with the article's thesis which argues for a balance in Welsh nationalism between rational arguments and emotion? It seems to me however that your response illustrates why nationalists often stick to logic and reason, because any use of emotion in arguments is characterised as "extreme", this is in fact a purely irrational and dare I say it an emotional response to Wales, Welshness. The characterisation of Welsh nationalism as inward / backward looking, with a tendency towards extremism is the emotional counter argument that all the unionist parties use to devastating effect to frustrate and retard any possibility of a reasoned and rational approach to improving the lot of Wales.

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Benjiman L. Angwin

Jeremy Corbyn’s emotional plea is based upon hatred. Pitting the Few (whoever they are chosen to be at that moment) against the Many (whoever they are chose to be at that moment). Rees-Mogg’s Hard Brexit is an emotional plea also based upon hatred. Hatred of the other, hatred of lesser savages who infringe upon Glorious Brittannia My comment was a warning sign, that is all. Heed it or don’t, you are an individual with the right to choose. You are T, not a group. Emotion can turn us into hostile groups.

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apgras

I think the answer is in the piece. The emotion should be shown to counter imperialism.

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Jonathan Edwards Sir Benfro (+North Carolina)

Don't agree that Welsh Nationalism has been winning the logical argument. If only they had. But there is a gaping hole in the logical case, Some people are interested in and have studied the art of nation-building. There are some simple techniques and steps for taking a nation from servitude to freedom. Just taking the British Empire, it has been done many times. 2 simple examples are Ireland and North Carolina (or any of the 12 other American colonies). This about statecraft, political meetings leading to Convention(s) ratification and, yes, probably the odd stand-off with London at some point. It is a well-trodden road and you would think it would be well known in Wales but it simply isn't. "Ignorance, ma'am, pure ignorance"? The Welsh have not been taught civics, or the right sort of British history. Americans on the other hand have this stuff at their fingertips. I go further Welsh nationalists have in fact already played the emotional card. Misplayed it. Your typical Welsh Nationalist does not want to know the history of North Carolina (classic bid for independence from London). They want to go straight to a Welsh Utopia. So a free Wales can only be pacifist, green, socialist, based on a Carmarthen Pound or something, and of course nowadays gender neutral. This sort of aspiration is fine in its way. But in political terms it is emotional and nothing to do with a thick-skinned face-down of London leading to autonomy, which is tough to do in practice. Much nicer to do Iwtopia, I don't think Wales can afford self-indulgence any more. Practical steps winning wide support from centre right as well as left please.

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Ifan Jones

Hi, Jonathan. What you've identified is I think is Plaid's inability to present itself to the voters in a way that would make them identify with the party. They do use emotion, perhaps, but to appeal to the wrong demographics, which is a problem I've discussed here: https://nation.cymru/2017/how-a-pragmatic-plaid-cymru-can-win-power/

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Eos Pengwern

I just re-read that article; it's very good. Ifan is a rare beast in that, although I think his own views are standard Plaid Cymru, he 'gets' things in a way that I feel very few others in the party (except perhaps Neil McEvoy) do.

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Graham John Hathaway

I don't think I can move far from the "rational economic man' argument when casting votes. The party or person that best articulates my views, in favour of my own interests. A mix of policies, and cultural links. But Ifan's references to the Brexit vote and the reasons the lie behind it for the less well off, or disenfranchised should not be dismissed. There is much to learn. Any political party who seeks power in Wales fails to win the majority of votes in the Welsh Labour heartlands will not succeed. I'm thinking mostly of the s Wales Valleys. I can see and feel the anguish of a forgotten community. A kick at the estsblishment that sadly will have more of a negative impact on those poorer than others. But as for feelings of why we vote, look no further than the silver surfers, group known for turning up to vote and for whom Parties target with favorable policies. But I would like to know the category of person who votes for independence, and where they sit on the social spectrum. I'm sure someone will have theses details and that may support the main thrust of Ifan's article that we need more gritty politicians that speak to the majority, in the language of the vernacular. I support the article for more passion and emotion. Along with policies that have a broad church. Otherwise we will not progress the much needed alliances that swears allegiances to this beautiful Country.

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Warren Davies

Emotion and facts as separate entities will not win through. Facts alone have failed, and emotion alone can be manipulative and leave you pandering to provide populist solutions. We need to clearly articulate our values using a narrative that is easy to understand and easy to identify with. Values should be the bedrock, then facts and emotions that are true to your values can be combined to create a story. Stories are very important. Stories about independent Wales will get people excited and voting for that indepdent vision. Ben Gwalchmai's story from last week (https://nation.cymru/2018/whenwalesisindependent-building-the-wales-of-the-future/) is an example. I'm not saying its a good or bad example, but if nothing else it generates discussion. Lets get writing!

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JR Humphreys

I've warmed a bit to Ben's WEC idea in that it would create a bond between the youth from the various parts of Wales. If he could flesh out the idea.........leading to the thought that why should we wait for "independence" before doing this, why not now? One thing though, I don't know about others, but internationalism "Wales can be a beacon for the rest of the world" -crap, when the rest of the world, quite rightly, couldn't give a fart what we do , leaves me cold.

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Rhydian

Maybe it's just me, but so far the independence case has been 100% emotion and no facts, so I'd suggest the opposite of more emotion is needed. Where's the explanation for how we plug the 26% fiscal deficit?

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John Young

Rhydian. Could you explain to us where you get the notion from that Wales has a 26% fiscal deficit please.

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Rhydian

Hi John, The IWA's "Government and Expenditure Review of Wales" for the year 2015/16 found that public spending for Wales amounted to £14.7bn in excess of tax receipts, the equivalent of 24% of GDP (not 26%, apologies). To put this in some context, the UK as a whole has just this month entered a slim surplus (0% deficit), from a high of 9% during the financial crisis. Most developed countries have a budget balance of plus or minus c.4%, To compare with a few small states often cited as comparable with Wales, Ireland has a deficit of 3%, Denmark of 4.6%, Estonia of 0.4%, and Slovenia of 5.8%, Currently the EU member with the largest deficit is Spain (10%). Of course, there is a discussion to be had about the structural explanations for this which would suggest that the union fosters dependence on the core by the periphery. All 3 devolved nations currently run large deficits, so there's certainly something rotten in the current UK framework. The problem, however, is that the deficit is now arguably so large that if spending stayed at the same level post-independence, we would see a rapid accumulation of debt and a risk of credit default. The alternative (though arguably the more realistic) scenario would be a combination of borrowing, tax rises, and a slimming down of the state through privatisation of services and spending cuts. And this would all be just to try and plug the gap left by lost Barnett funds, let alone the added cost of additional investment or lower corporation taxes to stimulate growth. My advice would be to take advantage of Barnett funds try to bring this deficit down first, by investing in infrastructure which will generate employment and encourage spending, using new fiscal powers to incentivise FDI and take some of the burden off low earners, and take a sober look at the balance sheet to see where savings can be made, perhaps through privatisation of some government-owned companies and public services. If the deficit can be brought down to a more realistic level, say under 10%, then the financial risks become drastically reduced and the debate can rely less on the kind of emotive populism seen so far. Of course this is just my view and you are free to disagree!

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In reply to Rhydian

Carnabwth

But it is surely not emotive populism to state that if other countries often compared to Wales (Ireland has a deficit of 3%, Denmark of 4.6%, Estonia of 0.4%, and Slovenia of 5.8% deficits) can go it alone, then why not us? That is surely rational thought. Haven't you just made the case that being in a Union/colonial relationship with England isn't doing our economy any good at all? But we can't get out of this hole until we at least have a federal system in order to address the issues you have raised.

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In reply to Carnabwth

Graham John Hathaway

It's clear Wales cannot continue as we are sitting defenceless, where Mark Hooper of Indycube in a recent contribution talks of the potential of 40% of children in Wales living in poverty the coming years. I understand it's currently around 20%,. I firmly take the views of Carnabwth. To do nothing is not an option. There's no magic wand anywhere to be found, not from the London Treasury. It's business as usual, austerity and more food banks. The way we are addressing the economic problems cannot be sustainable when locked in an Union. There's no point in blaming Labour or Brexit or the snow currently in Wales, or anything else that's handy. There is, as pointed out in previous comments, a fundamental and systemic failure of our economics and our weak industrial structures. These will not be addressed by the Union, and why should they now. They have their own problems. It's in their interests to keep Wales in lock down. And to keep blaming Labour for our underperformance and our tag as the "poor man"of Europe. Living on handouts. What a dreadful position to be in. So what of the new world. Where Brexit will be all conquering and powerful. Ah but there are hard choices ahead. Yes ours. Here in Wales. Turmoil in British politics has only just begun. The Union is in disarray. The Irish border question is looking unanswerable. The Good Friday agreement is crucial to uphold. There's no consensus on anything and everything. "No deal is better than a bad deal" seems a century away. And a mill stone around our neck. We have no choice but the bite the bullet. To look to self management by consensus politcs in Wales and unity. The finances can always be a negotiated settlement with the Treasury. Wales contributed greatly throughout the industrial revolution into recent times. We are owed. We have paid handsomely into the insurance schemes of old age and others. Any calculations of any settlement with the Treasury will need to be in the context of past contributions into the insurance funds to offset at least some of the costs of social payments. These are no small matters. Let's at least start the conversation that Wales has value. If we don't then who will.

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In reply to Graham John Hathaway

Carnabwth

Well, believe it or not, we have been living through pretty much 'good times' for the last few decades. We are on the verge of a paradigm shift in the world economy. If we thought it was hard up until now, we have seen nothing yet. We need economic levers just to try and keep our head above the waves.

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In reply to Carnabwth

Graham John Hathaway

I find new words have crept into the political speak since Brexit. It's put a whole new meaning to ordinary everyday life when politics was just, um , politics. Tory or Labour, Labour or Tory. A kind of revolving wheel until opps the wheel has fallen off. Yes a "paradigm shift" if we mean a corruption of doctrine. A new mode of understanding. A popular theme that has resonance. I would agree. We have yet to recover from the financial crash of 2008. And now the start of a crash as devastating as Brexit with even more and longer term repercussions. You can't write a more uncertain future for Wales and not even at the table where these Brexit discussions are conducted. Yep, by comparison we have never had it so good. But what now.

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In reply to Rhydian

Dafydd Thomas

Hi Rhydian, Take a look at. https://youtu.be/7UrErHKq-rc

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In reply to Rhydian

John Young

Thanks for the detailed reply Rhydian. I know the numbers you're referring to. I asked my question in case there was something I was missing. Regarding the Welsh fiscal deficit, The numbers reported, as you say, were £24 billion revenue as against £38 billion in expenditure (approx). In all the reviews done since the second World War up till the mid 90's Welsh revenue and expenditure was essentially in balance, sometimes in surplus. Then in the last 20+ years we've had a number of reviews where, all of a sudden, there's this huge deficit culminating in the figures mentioned above. It all started during the build up to the devolution referendum. It could be argued that there was a deliberate policy to manipulate people into believing that Wales was dependent and so ensure that there was no desire to go further than the Assembly we ended up with, even perhaps to persuade people to vote no even to that. So what's changed ? I can't give you chapter and verse on that but what I can say is that the £24/38 billion figures are utterly meaningless unless the revenue figure includes ALL Welsh taxes paid, which it doesn't, and the Welsh expenditure side of the equation only included money spent in Wales for the benefit of Wales. On the revenue side there are huge amounts of VAT and Corporation tax not included in the figures. Also Road Tax, shipping tax and I daresay many other taxes which others may know about. A VAT/Corp Tax example. Tesco pays ALL it's UK VAT and Corp tax at it's HQ in Chesham, Hertfordshire. Tesco sales in Wales is approx £3 billion (5% of their total UK sales). Not all of those sales are subject to VAT but a substantial amount is and the VAT/Corp amount paid in Wales would be huge. Tesco is just one FTSE 100 company who do this. Most of the FTSE 100 companies have their HQ's in and around London. It would be simple for the Government to establish the actual amount paid in Wales but i'll leave it to you to wonder what their reason for not doing that is. Re Welsh Expenditure. A large part of the £38 billion is not spent in Wales at all. Included in that figure is a Welsh 'payment' of 5% towards UK infrastructure projects almost none of which happen in Wales. Recent examples are £1 billion for Crossrail, £3 billion currently being spent on HS2 and even £500 million on the Olympics. When Crossrail 2 goes ahead that will cost Wales £1.5 billion and when Trident goes ahead that will cost Wales a huge £6 billion. Infrastructure spend happening in Wales as we speak is 20 miles of rail electrification to Cardiff, not the 70 miles that was promised by the lying Conservatives in their election manifesto. I honestly don't know what the final numbers would be if all that could be worked out but the £14 billion mentioned at the start would be at least halved. And, when Wales is Independent the figures will again be hugely reduced by us not having to provide our 5% toward the UK government's obsession with maintaining the UK as a global player in maintaining an army which costs between £40 and £50 billion pounds lumbering us with a bill of over £2 billion. That figure would drop by at least £1.5 billion if an Independent Wales spent along similar lines to Ireland. All of a sudden the Welsh fiscal deficit is starting to look manageable.

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In reply to John Young

sibrydionmawr

It's probable that there is also a substantial amount of income tax paid by Welsh workers is collected in England as payrolls tend to be made up at head offices - this would most likely be the case with companies such as Tesco. It's interesting that the argument that Wales is too poor to be independent has a very long history, and even in the early 70s that line was being peddled, especially by the Labour Party. Strange thing was, at that time Wales outperformed England industrially that it was the case that Wales was subsidising England rather than the other way around. Whilst the changed industrial and economic situation of Wales would likely see that Wales is now poorer, (due to economic and industrial policies being dictated from outside our country - surely an indication of how much a colony we are) we still don't know the full picture, as you point out. Therefore we should then regard claims that Wales can't pay its way with extreme suspicion, as it's possible that we do indeed pay our own way. We need parties like Plaid Cymru to start presenting us with figures for the value of important exports such as water and electricity in a similar manner that they used to publish such statistics in the 50s 60s and 70s. Not in themselves going to persuade people to change allegiances, and support independence, but valuable information for debunking the dubious arguments of unionists and colonialists.

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In reply to sibrydionmawr

Graham John Hathaway

There are observable means of determining our worth , or more appropriate our GDP or GVA. but there are receipts that lie undedicated or hidden. Indeed expenditures that are listed and attributed to Wales that need looking at. The story of a failed state relying on handouts, ( and yes we have been underfunded for the last 30 years under the Barnett formula) needs addressing. I believe the stigma associated with an overly dependent Country and fallout politically in terms of perception needs clarifying. It serves to keep this notion about poor Wales and helps the integrity of the Union. If this was given greater awareness and a few myths overcome, it would engineer a surge in support for independence.

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owain

The author makes a good case for how appealing to emotion can help win an election. I would argue that building an independent Wales is an entirely different task, one that requires the support of nearly everyone in Wales rather than just a simple majority in one constituency. Appealing to emotion might win over some disenchanted voters, but it's no way to build a long term political project. Perhaps more importantly, I would argue that the current turn towards emotion in politics is an historical exception rather than the norm. Nearly every developed democracy has a party system organised along a left-right divide, in which voters seek out the party that offers them, and people like them, the best economic rewards. Like James Carville said, “It’s the economy, stupid”. As someone who is indy-curious but far from convinced, I think that it is the economic and practical issues that hold back the independence debate. Many people who passionately identify as Welsh have no interest in independence, not because Plaid aren’t ‘like them’ but because they perceive independence as a risk to their economic circumstances. From the pro-independence side I hear plenty of the ‘softer’ stuff around how Wales should be confident and how far smaller countries that us have become independent, but nothing about the economics of independence. How we would maintain current levels of government spending with such a drastically reduced tax base? What kind of trade deal would we have with the remaining UK? You only have to look at the brain-numbing process of Brexit to realise that extricating a nation from its international relations can be incredibly complex, and I have yet to see how an independent Wales wouldn't get stuck on the same issues, no matter what our emotions tell us.

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CambroUiDunlainge

Problem I find with the economic side is as we head towards Independence our economic situation is likely to improve as WM tries to buy us off (we all know they will - they bought the DUP off). Powers and more money are all about us deciding our obedience is not free. So its a difficult situation... the country isn't going to get any better unless we start upon that road... then they'll offer us money and powers. But as we've seen with the Brexit talk... we're an afterthought and they are trying to wind back devolution. Anything they give us can be undermined and taken away again. But yeah whether Indy curious or not I feel we're at the point where we need to be starting down that road. We're never going to be in a situation where we can say "Right we're at the point Independence could work" because the colonial system we live under is deliberately constructed to prevent that. It's really the only card we have to play,

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Simon

Truth is labelled hate by those who hate the truth.

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Red Dragon Jim

Ifan, I just don't think this is true: "A few days after the Brexit vote I made the argument that the people who voted for Brexit were the exact people most likely to support Welsh independence." There has been research looking at this and Brexit voters have a stronger British identity. It does not follow at all that you can just pretend the Brexit vote was equally a vote for Welsh independence. Support for independence is higher if it is presented as a way of being in the EU (I don't think it works legalistically, sadly). You are right more generally, about the power of emotion and localism.

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Ifan Jones

Hi Red Dragon Jim - I'm sorry if that sentence wasn't clear. What I meant was that those who were convinced to vote for Brexit would be most likely to be convinced to vote for Welsh independence, not that there was any correlation in support at the moment. Will amend.

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J Edwards

How would I be labelled? I'm a 56 year old, working-class woman who supports Welsh Independence, voted Remain and despairs of the hate-filled propaganda that brought people like Trump to power.

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Eos Pengwern

Or me? I'm a 48-year old, middle-class chap who supports Welsh Independence, voted Brexit, and despairs of the hate-filled propaganda aimed at Trump, who I think is a fine president. Today's political discourse tends to pigeonhole people into categories which very, very few people actually fit into. I've been voting UKIP for the last few elections, and although stopping short of joining them (their statement of principles is explicitly Unionist, so I couldn't sign up for that) I spent a fair bit of time leafletting on their behalf and meeting many local members. None of them bore even a passing resemblance to the stereotype of a UKIP voter which is often bandied about on this site, and elsewhere. The only one who'd previously been a member of any other party was ex-Labour.

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sibrydionmawr

Trump a fine president? I think that comment sums up delusion! There is no need to participate in hate filled propaganda to regard Trump's behaviour as questionable. We have to remember that he didn't even get a majority of the votes, and only became president due to the electoral college. Personally I regard Trump as a very dangerous idiot. The fact that he is surrounded by controversy is also something to be concerned about, as are the kinds of people he has surrounded himself with. I don't see that not joining UKIP actually lets you off the hook, as you've been voting for a unionist party, and one with some very dodgy associations and policies that are on the outer fringes of lunacy. I don't regard UKIP as fascist, but I would still categorise them as the more unacceptable face of British Unionism, and certainly dodgy enough to be on a slippery slope towards some rather nasty ideas, and certainly their allegiances within the European Parliament should give anyone with anything approaching a conscience pause for thought.

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CambroUiDunlainge

Nice article. Do think thats a good point about Michael Sheen - I don't think people trust politicians and hes that neutral non-partisan voice. Agree with your point about McEvoy and Leanne and the popularity they have in their locale. Problem with WM politics is they parachute people into safe seats... which added with the levels of technocracy distances politicians from the people they represent. Actually think Leanne could beat Chris Bryant - but I don't think PC should bother taking their seats anyway. Something I've become more convinced of in recent days with no Welsh or Scots at the Tory Brexit table. Leanne was chosen for leader because she was from the Valleys - that place PC wants to win over so much so they really had the right idea. Its a shame the situation has arisen with those two because ultimately we need more like them - they're front line. Neither are leaders though and I don't think either can inspire nationally. That is not meant as an insult its a case of there being different kind of politicians - maybe even a better kind. Does come down to emotion though - been silently impressed with Michael Sheen. Obviously I believe the most powerful symbols of national pride, emotion and identity and various red and yellow flags. Merely because they represent our identity, they are anti-establishment and they just send such a powerful message to WM and the Royals.

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Robert Williams

I think Owain hits a lot of nails on the head. Like him, I am ‘indie-curious’ but far from convinced, and for much the same reasons. How would we maintain current levels of public spending - or anything close to them - with a drastically reduced tax-base? And however Ifan may argue about the perception of many working class people of public spending, a sharp reduction would mean rapid catastrophe for health and education. Too many of the counter-arguments - if that’s not too flattering a term - are pretty closely aligned with brexiter rhetoric - stuff about liberating creative energies once the shackles are thrown off. In short ‘in one bound our hero was free’.

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apgras

You’ve been taken for a ride for many a year. When we finally find out how much tax Wales actually raises. In the 60’s the whole of public expenditure in Wales was £59m and tobacco tax revenues alone were £65m. Don’t people realise that we give our money away and get a partial receipt?! It’s crazy.

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Wrexhamian

Much of the pocket-money we get from Westminster and the EU is wasted, because there is insufficient accountability and no political will to change the ways that that money is spent. Tourism revenue is not invested in Wales. The Welsh NHS budget is burdened by the consequences of granny farming. We are paying taxes for services outside Wales that are of no benefit to us. We do not own (either publicly or privately) many of our means of production, and end up paying for their use. Our farmland is made unproductive through excessive housebuilding that we do not need. Like any colony, Wales is there to service the needs of England. We are being short-changed. All these problems could be overcome with independence. Dyna fo, an economic and an emotional argument.

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JR Humphreys

I will bore everyone with "heart on fire, brain on ice", but isn't it the best way?

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In reply to JR Humphreys

Graham John Hathaway

Yes. 'Cool head sharpe mandril' . A saying from the coal fields of sWales.

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Graham John Hathaway

I just thought we might lit upon usury on the road to the greatest prise offered to a Nation. It's self respect. That which is extracted, taking or receiving of a greater rate than is allowed by law. Funding not based on the true identified needs, a fudge of accounting, a denial proper distribution of wealth amongst the constituent parts of the UK to allow for, say, infrastructure spend. Even asset development and investment in enterprise. It's difficult to understand why Wales as a Country decided on Brexit as a way of renewal. It's been proffered it may be anti estsblishment, over governance, seeking more control over daily lives. Yet Wales was a beneficiary of EU structural funding much in excess of what it proportionally paid in. Around £ 250m per annum. There's a clear need for explanations of fiscal matters and the decoding of exactly the receipts and expenditure directly attributed to Wales. In much more detail than I see is available. But I would like a rational explanation, even the theory of how the majority in Wales voted for less public spending on key areas of structural, social and people centred investment. It's mind numbing. It suggests that finances are not the critical issues. Debt is perfunctory. Leadership and trust becomes the most important factors in people's definition of good governance. Enter emotion and passion. JFK, moment "ich bin ein Berliner" . Alabama Governor. George Wallace pledged " segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever. High retoric and highly charged. I shall not venture any more American references. More recent! It's too hurtful. There is a case to be answered, more research into gaining traction on matters of a distinct Welsh jurisdiction and Welsh priorities. Of promoting diversity, and greater allegiances across the social divide. Of disguarding old ideas that are yours and are not those you represent. Define politcs through a greater prism of awareness. It needs redefining and for challenge. Having no fear. And no prejudice. Be open to change, and lead it. There's a new world order emerging throughout Europe. It's time for change. Let it be as one community. Ymlaen.

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JR Humphreys

Isn't "Ich bin Berliner", what he should have said? As he included "ein", it meant "I am a doughnut".

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JR Humphreys

Answering myself, there is much controversy over this ein insertion, Some also say that he said ein, not eine, which makes a difference. Americans are particularly sensitive on this one

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Trailorboy

It's the proudly identifying as British that does it. I suspect the next census will show an increase in numbers of people saying Welsh and British. The Brexit issue has increased that feeling of Britishness - the media has been on overdrive since Londin 2012 - my opinion obviously and no evidence to back that up, but a strong gut feeling.

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Tegid

For those worried about the "Welsh deficit", the authors of the iwa report which calculated this deficit made it clear that it did not reflect the financial situation of indy Wales. Comments on this article explain why, and is well worth reading: http://www.iwa.wales/click/2017/12/independence-debate/ Apologies for the lack of emotion on this comment.

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Graham John Hathaway

Dafydd, in your response to Rhydian you posted a highly interesting vid of a talk to the Yes Cymru Llanelli. The introduction named only Eifion, I think, but not the full name. Have you got it please. It does reflect a better analysis of the case for independence. Showing the slight of hand that embeds the Union position of clever rigging of the status quo. Wales forever used by default . It needs flushing out and publicity. The sad part is the feelings that our politicians at the Bay seem aware but choose to do nothing about it. I suppose, but am not sure why, perhaps the fear of reprisal of claims of one phobia or another. It has a place.

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Gillian Jones

Hi Graham, The name of the person who gave the talk for Yes Cymru Llanelli on the budget deficit is Eifion Thomas. He is an economist, that is to say an economics graduate but also with higher degree in engineering and physics.He has has worked world wide on multi billion dollar projects.This information is on the Yes Cymru Llanelli facebook page.

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Graham John Hathaway

Diolch Gillian, caredig iawn. Eifion gave a complelling case for independence. It was quite masterful. Yes Cymru is establishing itself as a strong voice for Wales. The messages are clear. We must go forward or diminish as Nation and with it our culture and self respect. This can only be achieved not within the political arena but by grass roots agitation. Thus was it any different. ' Wales Rising'. Thanks again.

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Jonesy

Those who voted brexit should be accessed on an emotional level. Do those who voted brexit lack reasoning skills. That being a cognitive process, are they somehow less, than those who can reason? Disgusting article.

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Replying to Dafydd Thomas Cancel

Hi Rhydian, Take a look at. https://youtu.be/7UrErHKq-rc

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