Could the right win in Wales?

Interesting analysis which covers the thoughts I’ve been having since the New Wales projection, and Deryn’s. I can’t see Labour accepting a junior role in a formal coalition Government led by Plaid… just can’t see it, especially after their attitude to Plaid in the recent Co-op agreement. If Plaid was the biggest party I think they’d have to go it alone as a minority like Alex Salmond’s SNP did - albeit Plaid would likely be a in a weaker position. If that prospect became I real possibility it’s not unthinkable that the ultra British nationalist party, Reform, would enter into a minority coalition with the Tories in order to stop a Plaid administration getting going; under the guise of “saving the Union” etc. We’re at a precipice moment in Welsh politics, and I agree with Mr Edwards that (sadly) Reform are best placed to capitalise on it.

Interesting assessment but I wonder whether JE is not becoming a closet Labour supporter. More radical for Labour would be to take up the mantle of Yes Cymru as half their members have done and either merge with PC who after all basically have the same philosophy other than the degree of devolution/independence they want; or have a left wing pact to maximise left leaning 1 2 voting preferences or even agree not to contest the same constituences. Now I would definitely vote for that.

'Of all the parties it seems to me that Reform is the best placed to make advances from their current position.' 'I sense on my social media feeds the same energy which fuelled the Brexit vote simmering. We know how Wales voted then.' I'm certainly no expert psephologist, but I have been an attentive observer of politics for almost seventy years. (OK, I started young - it was first the Suez adventure and, a couple of months later, the abortive Hungarian revolution that first kindled my young interest!) And my hunch coincides with Mr Edwards's. I think that, at least the way things are looking at present, the Farageists have the potential to do quite well at the next Senedd election. Much of their success, if my instinct turns out to be right, will be at the expense of the Tories, who aren't exactly in an impressive condition right now. And I can't see a Darren Millar leadership turning things round for them all that much. But Reform is quite likely to attract support in traditionally Labour-voting areas too. We in Wales have quite a few areas which, historically and demographically, aren't too unlike Lee Anderson's Ashfield constituency.

I'm not sure that the terms 'right' and 'left' have any great relevance anymore. Someone can simultaneously have opinions that are historically 'right wing' (pro business. strong borders) and left wing (public ownership of key industries) and yet be pro devolution and pro Welsh language - where do they fit in?. The significant division is now between establishment parties and anti-establishment parties. The establishment parties each have their pet obsessions (eg for Labour its Palestine and identity politics, for the Tories it is free markets and immigration) however fundamentally they are both the same. The establishment parties have had their chance, they have been found wanting on virtually every level. It is time for others to be given an opportunity, irrespective of where they fit in the old 'right versus left' model.

Well I don't speak Welsh but I have voted Plaid in the past. What policies do Plaid have that are against English speakers, in fact most mainstream parties support the Welsh language? Since non-Welsh speakers are the majority it would be utterly stupid for any party to alienate them.

why would the English speaking areas of Wales vote for them? Because they have been the only party to stand up for Wales and Welsh interests irrespective of language. Labour treat Wales as nothing but 'voter fodder' and the Tories are utterly disdainful of Wales. Who else is there to fight our corner?

Agreed, other than the Welsh language issue, PC are indistinguishable from any of the legacy parties: the fact they still maintain the idiotic notion that a man can become a woman should rule them out for anyone with an IQ north of a gnat.

This article is a warning. Actual voting has yet to take place. There is 14 months to go until the next Senedd election. Most people that were Labour or Tory have recorded a Reform/UKIP vote as an alternative to the old politics, when asked about their voting intentions: Lab/Cons they reply as none of the above. I suggest that this is a grand opportunity for Plaid Cymru on the ground, if we can bring policies back to community politics and voting. There has to be hard work up to the next election in 2026 if we want a nation that is not a colony to the the UK. We have got to reach all the electorate in our country, We do not have the luxury of a mainstream media, except for Nation.Cymru and Yes Cymru. It is possible, community policies work well for parties like ourselves such as the Liberal Democrats and Greens which have been faced with similar uphill struggles and at the poll been rewarded with 72 Lib dems and 4 Green seats. In each of our campaigns it is community politics that have been shown to have worked well. An example of non-community politics is Farage as the recently elected MP for Clacton. Now, it is almost impossible for a constituent to get a meaningful reply from him. His first priority is ideological - go off to the USA to support Trump for US President. We know that Trump is a fascist. What does it say about Farage and Reform/UKIP ? Enough said. It is evident that intentions towards Reform is very light and there is every chance that a good campaign by Plaid Cymru can actually get us closer and over the 50%. Plaid Cymru's only true natural allies are the Green and Liberal Democrat parties who also have committed progressive policies.

Why don't you share your vision of this future so others don't have to imagine it.

"Prepare for a right-wing government the likes of which you never imagined" Looking forward to that are you?

You appear to overlook the hard fact that we got a Labour government at Westminster last July precisely because a very significant proportion of the UK electorate had concluded that this country had become 'an impoverished hell-hole'. Not, of course, a 'socialist' one; but then I get the impression that Starmer too instinctively swerves away from employing that term! I'm not sure how successful his project will be, either; Labour under his leadership has thus far seemed to me to have demonstrated more skill in campaigning than in governing. But at least I can be certain that a Starmer government will be preferable to one led by Johnson or Truss.

Amongst other things Plaid need to have a great social media presence and either come to some arrangement with the Green Party, or ram home the message that voting Green will lead to a far-right, climate change denying Reform gov.

The Welsh Cons need to reclaim conservatism from those that revel in their reputation as lawless humanity hating sociopaths.

If the far right gain power in Cymru - it'll mean the end of the Senedd, and quite possibly the end of any hope of an independent Cymru. As much as I want an independent Cymru now, it would be better for the progressive party of our country to work together on this occasion. Especially, if the polls still remain close by the end of summer next year. The very future of our country is at stake, it's entirely possible that by competing against each other, the far right will gain power. That can't be allowed to happen.

I would hope Plaid will win the next Senedd election and would not form any special arrangement with the incompetence that is Labour.

An observation. There needs to be balance in politics. History shows what happens when either the left, or the right, is allowed to go unchecked, and it's always been catastrophic. People from either end of the spectrum need to engage in respectful discourse in order to arrive at workable outcomes. It's not perfect but it's the best strategy we've come up with. For as long as people insist on mis-characterising people who are simply right-leaning as far-right, extreme right, hard right etc. there'll be no chance of any meaningful conversation. Such lazy thinking is quite clearly a bigger problem on the left than it is on the right: can I respectfully suggest that we dispense with such histrionics and try engaging in mature, respectful discourse?

Like all previous Senedd elections the real winners will be the disillusioned and the apathetic.

The popularity of Reform UK in Cymru is chilling, not only for Muslims and people of colour, but for those who believe in the future of Wales as any kind of nation. Reform poses an existential threat for us as a nation (as much as, if not more than the Tories are). Its British Nationalism goes beyond Unionism and is firmly rooted in English Supremacism. Any Welsh supporters of Reform UK need to realise that promotion of our language and culture will be superficial at best (so we can all feel marginally less ashamed for 80 minutes at each rugby game), until our cultural life is so eroded they can finally gloat "we're all the same" and take the Encyclopedia Britannica line 'For Wales, see England'. Cards on the table: I live and work in England, and I can assure you, many (not all) of our English 'friends' would love to see Wales become another region of England. Wales is becoming a new Ulster, divided between those loyal to Cymru and those (both English migrants and those of Welsh heritage) loyal to the UK. The difference is that the beleaguered nationalists in Ulster had support from their countrymen in the Republic. We Cymry have only ourselves. So this is deadly serious. What can be done? A lesson can be learnt from the French left and centre this summer: see the peril for what it is, put your differences aside and put on a united front. But, as more recent events in France shows, this needs to endure. The Labour Party in Cymru needs to become 'Welsh Labour' confederated, but independent from English Labour and build bridges with Plaid. More than this, a united and independence leaning left need to address the grievances currently being exploited by Reform. Since both Reform and the Tories follow the dirty and dishonest dog-whistle politics of the right-wing throughout the world, Welsh progressives must be prepared to bring the fight to them. Whatever happens, it won't be pretty.

Plaid Cymru is not a nationalist party. It stands for self determination for Wales, not nationalism. Meanwhile........worth a watch...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CMXfpiWfso

I heard Darren Millar, 'setting out his stall' as the new leader of the Conservatives in the Senedd, saying that his priority in the immediate aftermath of the next Senedd election would be to displace Labour as the party of government in Cardiff Bay. Which suggests to me that in 2026 the Tories will very readily seek to govern in coalition with Reform UK if the numbers after the election make that possible. That'll give us a very different Wales, politically speaking.

I wonder would a potential Reform/Tory administration in Cardiff result in a rise of anti-devolution sentiment coming from the left rather than the right? There are plenty within the Labour party who are no fans of devolution: Chris Bryant, Neil Kinnock, the late Ann Clwyd etc. Some within Labour arrogantly believe that it is their god given right to be in government in Wales, and some on the left reject any kind of nationalist sentiment (civic or otherwise). Take attitudes to Europe for example. Thatcher and Heath were very much pro-Europe, whereas opposition to it, came from the left (Michael Foot etc). It wasn't until the 90s when Euroscepticism became more of a right wing sentiment.

You find Wales has a habit of self harming itself. When the right-wing rule Wales , usually from Westminster, they use & abuse us leaving our communities a devastated apathetic wasteland void of hope. UK Labour on the other hand just maintain Welsh poverty opting to ticket around the edges They offer us more of the same poverty rule. To them England is their priority not eradicating child poverty, fair funding Wales or devolving more power to our Senedd. That's the sad reality. Anyway, if the Welsh public need any example what Reform UK would be like in the Senedd can just look no further than the candidates for the 2026 Senedd Cumru elections who were once members of UKip/ Brexit party. One Nathan Gill, leader of Reform in Wales, comes to mind. A man who both was an AM & MEP who along will his other colleagues did absolutely nothing during their time as a Senedd member. He himself missed numerous Senedd votes & debates favouring traveling at public expense to Brussels & Strasbourg to troll with Nigel Farage the EU parliament. So Wales if you want to vote for rabid right by will have the opportunity to do so in 2026, but don't bemoan the fact when those same Reform MSs use Wales as a doormat to step on as admitted by leader Nigel Farage on BBC Question Time where he admitted wanting to using Wales merely as a steppingstone to Westminster power.

We need reform to rescue us from the abyss. I think a lot of people feel that way.