Could a new party of the left enter the race in Wales?

Jonathan Edwards

To say we are living in interesting political times would be an understatement. Three successive polls have suggested that our country for the first time in over a century is about to turn its back on the Labour Party. Furthermore, if these polls are correct, Labour will fall to third.

Yet, as if to confound any expectations, a fourth poll undertaken by Beaufort Research for Nation Cymru has reinstated Labour to the lead.

At UK level, a year on from a crushing General Election victory, the Labour Government seems out on its feet already.

Devoid from a clear narrative about what it wants to achieve, it has lost control of its backbenchers despite the detailed sifting of prospective candidates in advance of the election.

Such is the state of panic it is rumoured that potential challengers to Keir Starmer are already mobilising with next years elections seen as pivotal.

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Hyper focus

There is going to be a hyper focus on events in Wales next year therefore, not only as it appears Reform could well win the election, but if the polls are replicated the PM could find himself in a world of trouble and the factional divides within the UK Labour party could rupture as MPs start looking at a fast approaching General Election.

Added to the mix of events was last weeks news that Zarah Sultana, the MP for Coventry South, had resigned from the Labour party and intends forming a new party with ousted former Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Mr Starmer has gone out of his way since assuming the leadership of his party to purge Labour from openly socialist MPs. It was mostly tactical so that he could portray to the country a changed Labour party narrative in advance of the last General Election.

It was also for some of his backers an opportunity to settle scores and an attempt to ensure that the left of the Labour party never won control again.

He also wanted to make a statement that dissent within the Parliamentary Labour Party would not be tolerated. The climbdown on his welfare plans indicate that this part of the strategy hasn’t quite gone to plan.

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Resigned

This is the first time a Labour MP has resigned from the party to form a new party of the left – one dedicated to serve the interests of working-class people. Traditionally when Labour MPs leave it is from the right of the party.

The left of the PLP have always viewed the party as the only viable vehicle for their objectives, wary of splitting the vote and hence supported a strategy of change from within no matter how rightwards the leadership of their party drift.

Leading left MPs such as Clive Lewis, Dianne Abbot and John McDonnell have already ruled out joining the new enterprise.

However, some on the left of the political spectrum are delighted with developments.  The Morning Star led with an article ‘We finally have Britain’s new left party’.

For many on the left of the wider labour movement, the actions of the current UK Government have been the final nail in their faith in the party.

Corbyn and Sultana speak for a sizeable chunk of the electorate, traditionally Labour voting, those completely disillusioned with politics as it stands.

It would therefore be foolish to underestimate what the new party could achieve in the years ahead, especially as the growth of Reform indicates the electorate have given up faith in the traditional parties.

Even if they don’t get to a position where they could win swathes of seats, the influence of their vote share on results could be critical.

Furthermore, a party standing on an unambiguous left wing platform would have a considerable impact on the framing of the political debate, especially in the age of polarising social media.

Which brings us to Wales, could the new party put up candidates at the Senedd election next year?

On the face of it the existence of a Labour party in Wales that places itself to the left of their Westminster colleagues and Plaid Cymru fills a void a new challenger party would seek to occupy.

Platform

Listening to Beth Winter the former Labour MP for the Cynon Valley on the BBC on the weekend however gave an indication of the sort of platform such a campaign could be based upon. Ms Winter has been organising valleys community assemblies with former Plaid Cymru Leader Leanne Wood, and both must be thinking about how to react to developments.

If Winter and Wood were to make a bid for the Senedd under a common branding they could well win seats under the new Senedd voting system.

It would certainly liven matters up during the campaign as both are excellent communicators and campaigners. In doing so they would surely capture votes in spades from both Labour and Plaid Cymru.

More importantly, if they were elected, they would run the expected Plaid – Labour Government ragged by providing a challenge from the political left.

It would also provide a potential new home for disillusioned Labour and Plaid Senedd Members, and defections could become the big story of the next Senedd.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr from 2010-24