A change of power would free Wales from Labour’s internal traumas that inhibit plain talking to the UK Government

Martin Shipton

The latest campaign tactic of the flailing Welsh Conservatives is to create a scare story around the prospect of Plaid Cymru, the SNP and Sinn Fein forming a “dangerous alliance” to break up the UK.

In a press release that dropped into my inbox on Thursday morning, the Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar said in response to comments made by Scottish First Minister John Swinney: “The cat is out of the bag – a vote for Plaid Cymru is a vote to form a dangerous alliance with Sinn Fein and the SNP to break up the United Kingdom.

“The Union between Wales, Scotland, England and Northern Ireland is one of the most successful partnerships in history. In an increasingly unstable world, we are stronger and safer together.

“Only the Welsh Conservatives will protect our country from the nationalists seeking to break up the UK. We will focus on putting more money into people's pockets and fixing our public services to get Wales working."

In fact, Swinney’s remarks had been more nuanced. Speaking of the likelihood that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will all be led by nationalist parties after the May 7 elections, Swinney said: "I certainly would enjoy the cooperation with counterparts in Plaid and Sinn Fein in Wales and Northern Ireland.

"It is for each of those individuals to meet their political campaigns in their own countries, and I don't speak for them."

"But certainly from my part, I would appreciate that collaboration to change the dynamics of the United Kingdom so that we can secure my objective of winning Scottish independence.”

Swinney went on to say that the UK would change irreversibly because of the "nature of the discussions that would then be taking place" between the devolved governments and the UK Government.

Millar and Sweeney have two diametrically opposed views of the world.

For Millar, Wales has been an unambiguous beneficiary of the Union and any talk of changing the status quo is akin to treachery.

The fact that Plaid Cymru in government would team up with administrations run by the SNP and, even more shockingly, Sinn Fein, with its history of taking Ireland out of a larger version of the UK through force of arms and continuing its rebellion after an artificial statelet was carved out of Ireland to appease a minority, is seen as an outrage.

But there are other perspectives

On Friday evening I had a public conversation in Cardiff’s recently opened Oriel Afallon with Desmond Clifford, whose essay Slouching Towards Cardiff Bay has just been published. I first got to know Des when he was Ron Davies’s Press Secretary at the pre-devolution Welsh Office. He later headed the Welsh Government’s office in Brussels before returning to Cardiff to run the First Minister’s private office.

He retired last year and, as the cliché puts it, knows where the bodies are buried.

Discreet

Impeccably discreet while a working civil servant, Des is now free to pass comment on the progress of devolution and, more specifically, on the relationship between the UK Government and the Welsh Government. That’s, in short, the theme of his essay.

As a former insider, he is able to confirm that from the outset of devolution, the attitude of Whitehall towards Wales was one of condescension and dismissal.

Brexit has made things worse, and since Boris Johnson successive UK governments - both Tory and Labour - have been grabbing back powers from Wales as part of a drive to demonstrate who is boss. The hypocrisy of the Labour Party, in complaining about the power-grabs while in opposition and then continuing them when in office, is breathtaking.

Des Clifford has lost patience with the UK Government - and so have I.

But the disenchantment goes far beyond being piqued by the UK Government’s decision to take control of regional aid programmes when, according to the devolution settlement, economic development is the province of the Welsh Government.

The economic interests of Wales do not align with those of the UK Government, which since the Thatcher era of the 1980s have been geared towards the priorities of the financial services sector centred on the City of London. To pretend otherwise is to turn one’s back on reality.

New dynamic

John Swinney is right to say that if Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are all run by nationalist-led administrations, there will be a new dynamic in the relationship between them and the UK Government. In the immediate future they will call for greater respect to be shown towards them and the countries they represent, together with greater participation in joint decision making.

What cards do the three devolved administrations have to play? If the UK Government seeks to stonewall them, they will seek to mobilise discontent in the run-up to the next general election.

Many people are discontented with declining living standards attributable to the continuing cost of living crisis as well as issues like the support for Israel’s genocide and the arrest of elderly and disabled citizens who protest against that. The UK is becoming less of a liberal democracy and more of an authoritarian state - a trajectory that many find deeply disturbing and wish to dissociate themselves from.

Darren Millar and the likes of Jo Stevens, the anti-devolution Labour Welsh Secretary, believe that what is unsustainable can be sustained. But with three devolved governments cooperating for change, the pressure will inevitably increase.

With another party in charge, Wales will no longer be hampered by the internal traumas of the Labour Party that inhibit plain talking to the UK Government.

Brexit

Ironically, the Brexit for which the leader of Reform UK is largely responsible has weakened the UK economy.

Dissatisfaction and disillusionment is on the rise. There is every likelihood that voters in Northern Ireland will vote for the reunification of Ireland.

Equally, the support for an independent Scotland will increase overall, with younger people supporting such an outcome by a large margin. When the dissolution of the UK is a fait accompli, Wales will need a plan.

The time is coming when these will be matters not simply for discussion at book launches attended by the political class in Cardiff.