Welsh indyref ‘absolutely could happen in our lifetime’, Plaid Cymru leader says

We must stop with the default assumption that only Westminster can give permission for a referendum. Our constitutional situation is different to Scotland’s. Wales did not voluntarily join in union with England, it was annexed following military conquest. The Senedd should hold the legal and moral right here. I know it’s a taboo to talk about this, but it is fact and these technicalities make our situation somewhat different to Scotland. It’s worth exploring and not putting all our eggs in a basket that could be dictated by a Nigel Farage government down the line.

There are two, connected issue here that worry me. The first is readiness. I am no fan of ap Iorwerth or Plaid Cymru but if the party really is in the majority next year and whether or not it governs alone or in some form of cooperation, it must have the detailed, costed and realistic policies ready beforehand Making up policies after the election will be too late and will damage the party from day one. Over to ap Iorwerth. The second is very worrying. Polls and people are fickle and a lot can happen in twelve months - just look at the rise of Farage and indeed, the comparative success of UKIP in a previous Assembly. If Plaid Cymru over peddles independence (if it does believe in it) and a referendum, then loses the May election - which is still very possible - then our enemies will seize upon this as evidence that there is little or no support for independence. Tread carefully Plaid Cymru!

The question of whether or not Wales becomes independent depends on what happens in Scotland. While support for independence is on the increase there are many factors that would deter people from voting Yes in a referendum. The first is the issue of currency, and the second is the issue of open borders with England. Scotland on the other hand will have some bargaining power. They have natural resources, such as the North Sea oil, a huge military presence including Trident and is of strategic importance within NATO (assuming it survives Trump). They may be able to negotiate a deal with London to secure a currency arrangement and retain the Common Travel Area. This along with the fact that the UK may no longer exist post-Scotland would set the precedent for Wales to follow suit. However, if Wales had an independence referendum before Scotland does, you can be sure that London will do everything it can to give us a rubbish settlement to deter the Scots from leaving. In the meantime we should be pressuring London for parity with Scotland, and Northern Ireland in terms of powers and full economic levers to empower our economy.

Again the hesitancy. ' It will up to the people ' A largely uninformed people at present and that's his job, it's always been his job, to inform the people as to the benefits of Independence. In that, through hesitancy, he has so far failed. Get the majority public onside and politicians will follow.

What do we want? Independence! When do we want it? NOW! Usual Plaid Cymru lack of commitment to independence! Where is Wales Alex Salmond?

The UK began to break up decades ago. We just aren't quite at the endpoint. That path was set in motion as soon as deindustrialisation set in and London was the peg that the economy was hung from. People really ought to read two books in order to understand the UK today. There are many of course but these two will enlighten. The first is Empireland by Sathnam Sanghera. The second in The Break-up of Britain by Tom Nairn. The UK and its territories is the rump British Empire. Shorn of territories and industry it retains a core-periphery economy, centralized beaurocracy and a stubborn constituency of anglo-supremacist, exceptionalist, British imperialists. Economic inequality is now built in as 50 years of neoliberalism compounded the damage done to communities by deindustrialisation. If you want to understand Brexit and Reform, the economic crises now engulfing our communities, you need to understand what the UK is. The Break-up of Britain is inevitable. The political path is locked in. Ask any of the main parties about meaningful reform of the State to reverse its institutional inequalities and you will be derided as villanous or thick. Precisely for that reason, the State will collapse. The UK establishment is incapable of the required reform, In the end, people will be so sick of it, they will sweep them away. Plaid and indy are benefiting in the polls, not because anyone is doing any earth shattering politics but because the tectonic motion of public opinion is fragmenting the old Empire to which we belong on account of it being a bit s***e really. The main thing we need is to keep fighting the cause, be patient, don't do anything stupid and act decisively when the moment comes. If you want to play the odds, I firmly believe a new union, a confederation of Wales, Scotland and England with EU membership will sway the electorate. Things will have to get a little bit more s**t before people are ready for it.

Fair points, whilst not necessarily agreeing with all of them. It’s interesting that none of those giving you the thumbs down have taken the time (so far) to put a contrary argument. It’s a bit of a trend around this debate. Perhaps I will now better your minus figure?!

Rhun should concentrate on attacking the Labour Party for declaring war on the disabled... The bringing down of Mr and Mrs Bumble and Liz Kendal for the despicable apologies for human beings they are consumed by their unadulterated sadism must be his and our crusade... Enough is enough, the whole country should stand and fight, these are our kith and kin for God's sake...

Deal with reform or you ain't going anywhere for a few decades after they wreck the place. Same for the other sensible parties.