Sensational poll shows Welsh Labour Senedd election meltdown and Plaid Cymru and Reform neck and neck for the lead

We don’t hear much from Rhun and I’m proud to say I shook his big hand at Sioe Mon 13 months ago. I want to think that he is subscribing to the adage which goes something like (adjusted for Farij) ‘’Don’t interrupt your opponent when they are killing themselves’ particularly when there is no satnav that could help Nige even find Cymru. He would designate it as one of those mythical enemies which doesn’t exist. Isn’t HE in for a shock?

If the polls are correct neither Plaid or the Fascists REFORM will have a working Majority

Even if Reform comes top, who will they go into coalition with to get 49 seats, and be able to form a government. Reform-37, Conservatives-6, Lib Dems-3, Green-1 = Total-47.

Have you read the poll? It doesn't look good for your grifting racist mates thankfully.

get that far right grifter anywhere near power and Wales is screwed for a generation.

So the English far right Nationalist Tory tribute act Party for the racists and traitors won’t be running anything on these figures. And as most of us new anyway far from being a phenomenon over 70 percent of Welsh people won’t be voting for these clowns

I notice the vote for "Others" has doubled to 4% for both the Senedd and Westminster elections. Is that because of the new Corbyn/Saltana party I wonder?

Ah, someone who doesn't understand a poll's results I see.

Once again with a 12% threshold to win a seat if you are a Green voter who doesn't mind Reform UK and is not bothered about the environment then why not vote Green. As for Corbyn's party they could be the cavalry that splits the left vote and gives Reform the keys to government.

Campaigning has yet to really begin, what with the election a number of months away. When it does here's hoping the general public in Cymru begin to see sense in respect to Reform. For sure there will be far more literature and political articles/announcements out there. The fight has yet to truly begin.

You have to be several orders of twp to think that reform will do anything for Wales. It ain't perfect now but I don't expect Plaid or Tory to do much better given Barnett (the Tory party are effectvly GOP now anyway). But reform are a far right wrecking party. farage is owned by some seriously nasty people in the US and they want their cut, that means we are one the table to be sold off. On top of which farage is pretty dim, he is a figure head for the dim witted.

Important to note that Reform cannot keep a ship afloat even when they win control of a county council in England, defections left right and centre. They have no leader in Wales and they even have an attrition rate of 1 in 5 of those MPs elected to the Westminster House. So any talk of coalitions or deals or cooperation agreements needed with Reform sitting in the chamber is meaningless. If Reform were in a restaurant there'd be a fight over the bill. This disintegration is also showing it's nature within Labour circles. A rabble of self interest and toadying. 

Yet another mickey mouse poll designed to fool people complacent enough to believe that they don't have to work hard to secure victory. Get communicating with the electorate otherwise slick Nige and his mates will sneak in and that will be a rude awakening.

Encouraging news, but I have to stress against being complacent. Six months is a long time in politics, and every vote matters. Expect the 'England and Wales' edition of the Sun to back Reform (assuming they care about Welsh politics) whilst the Scottish edition backs the SNP. Were Reform to win then they will have a mandate to not only undermine the Welsh nation, but also exploit our resources. Half a century onwards from Phil Bennett's passionate speech yet some people are still happy for this to happen. What isn't encouraging however is how polarised Welsh politics is becoming. A choice between a party that supports Welsh independence and an English nationalist party that is hostile to the Welsh identity. Look at Northern Ireland, look at what is happening in the United States.

Ged. You know that thing reform bang on about where they want to have their language and culture preserved? Well, reform want to destroy that in Wales. I'd appeal to the "respectful Britishness" of any reform supporters and ask them to please respect our language and culture (ironically the oldest British culture). Voting for nationalist parties is fine, but voting for a foreign nationalist party in Wales is akin to urinating on the cenotaph in London.

The lack of preference voting risks splitting the pro-Wales vote so perhaps there will need to be a pro-Wales alliance where parties agree to stand aside in some constituencies and unite behind the one most likely to beat the Abolish Wales party. The maths is untested under the new system but it might even be possible for all parties in the alliance to get more members into the Senedd this way.

The fact that no party wins an overall majority does NOT necessitate coalition building. The SNP went into government initially as a minority administration. If Plaid were the largest party, it would be entirely feasible for them to form a minority administration. Lab, LibDem and Green members would have a choice between supporting a PC administration or putting Reform / Tories into government.

I feel a North South divide occurring!

Plaid and Labour should be very afraid, they both ganged up to push through voting reform/change, thinking that they could carve up the Senedd membership using the appointed new members appointed system. However it is quite possible that at the next Senedd elections that Wales will be the only UK country to having the Reform Party at the helm. Bang goes outlandish bonkers policies, and in will come facist ones.